Stratos

Anything can happen, but with Cody back the most likely scenario for the offseason given the 50-55m to spend seems to be: a quality SP, a quality late-inning reliever (plus other lesser pen signings), a bench bat or 2, and signing a catcher like Jansen or acquiring one via trade. Good news is that given we got essentially zero WAR in 2024 out of every contract of significance coming off the books (Hendricks, Gomes, Mancini, Neris, Barnhart etc) that means the likelihood we spend that money better this winter and are a better team on paper on Opening Day (injuries aside) is virtually assured. 50 million spent could potentially nab us around 7-8 or so WAR in upgrades over last year, which could get us to 90 wins if we're adding to last year's win total, not including what improvements from Paredes, PCA, Amaya might provide (thought that's made up for Nico missing some time and possible other injuries and regressions).

I think a bunch of those predictions you could easily see them getting another year tacked on though.

Fangraph crowdsource predictions that was just posted thinks about 6/180. Fried they say about 5/135

Not in one offseason.

I looked at the fielding stats. Happ didn't rank great in OAA but ranked the highest in LF for UZR and DRS stats. Swanson was the opposite, he ranked the highest in OAA and Fielding Run Value (statcast stats) but for UZR, UZR/150, and DRS Tovar was better than Swanson. So it seems the Rawlings people are going by these older stats to make their judgements. Congrats to Happ.

Thing is we said the same about the 2023 Cubs and their excellent hitting in the 2nd half. Not that you're exactly saying this, but I'm also not going to assume that the PCA and Amaya are the guys we saw in the summer (especially in Aug when we were playing bad teams) while ignoring the rest of their year. They may improve but we have no guarantees and we don't know by how much. Its promising but players also get hot and cold all the time. I think we have potential to hit a bit more HR but we're probably no better than average in HR/ISO and could be below average again.

Yeah video and data probably work well. They'll miss some things possibly but are scouts watching a player warm up or how they interact with teammates in the dugout? And is it worth traveling to see if they do? The things scouts might not see on video like fielding jumps they can measure with the data.

Besides catcher how could we get more HR into the lineup? Would involve a trade but i'm not against that idea.

Even though I like Tauchman and he could fill in if someone gets hurt too I think the way our lineup is built it would be ideal to get more HR power on the team, even if it's the bench. If one of our OF get hurt Tauchman probably gets a bunch of paying time in OF or DH. Losing the power of Belli, Suzuki, or Happ and replacing with Tauchman would hurt on a team already with mediocre HR. I do like having a solid vet with a short simple swing like Tauchman on the bench though. Younger guys like Canario probably need more regular playing time to stay effective, especially if they haven't seen a lot of MLB pitching.

I wonder how Tauchman's right- left splits were in the minors, especially AAA, he had a ton of minor league reps. That could give us more of a clue since we'd assume he'd be get regular playing time as a starterdown there. Not 1:1 to MLB pitching but better than nothing.

5 different websites will have 5 different numbers for what the Cubs payroll was for luxury tax purposes in 2024. Exactly how much the Cubs have to spend under the tax this offseason is one of life's mysteries that nobody knows besides God and Jed.

Tauchman has even career splits against LH vs RH though. Only 290 career PA vs LH, but thems the numbers.

Don't they dare cut Mastrobuoni

Thank you for posting all this. - What's their "Fld" stat? I assume "fielding" but what does it measure? Swanson is at -0.5 which seems odd. Busch had a high BABIP (his xBA in 2024 was .221) so maybe that's the key with their low projection. He has a nice swing and approach though. They project Seiya at 2,2 WAR, maybe the xBA and all his time projected at DH. Bellinger stays around his stats last year. These projections aren't surprising, they see basically our whole rotation ERA's regressing. This team doesn't look very good here. Projecting a whole lot of average-ness.

Amaya has some upside but i don't think the FO should make decisions for next year based on 2 good months when the others were terrible (including Sept). Anyone can hit well for 100 AB's. I hope they see him as a 2nd catcher at this point until he proves otherwise and can find an upgrade to pair with him.

Belli is a good player and think the HR can go up from last year but he's still a 20-25 HR guy. We could really use more HR. But he brings other things to the table, a good all- around player, virtually no holes in his game. This lineup is looking exactly the same as last season. That's a bit worrisome. At least we have a full year of Paredes. Counting on finding a catcher to get more power and an offensive boost to the lineup will be tough. Especially since catchers don't play every day. Jed has been good at filling holes when needed though. Amaya could do better next year but it's not something we should count on. He was terrible every month but July and Aug. A Bellinger trade is unlikely but isn't off the table. Jed is very flexible and does things we dont expect so I think they'll still look at Soto and any other options that could boost the offense.

Agree. Boras has other clients and can get a feel for the market. No harm in him waiting. Situations can change a bit, you never know.

Not sure what he gets but I think over 4m.. I wonder what he projects for IP next year. Maybe 90 IP? His K/9 wasnt that good this year including the playoffs. I wouldn't give him much.

If they traded Alcantara+ for Cease and signed him to an longterm extension Cease would be 30 y/o at the start of the extension. Why not just keep Alcantara and sign 30 y/o Burnes as FA? Fried is only a year older too. Possible to even sign Cease next offseason as FA. I agree they'll likely need to trade some of their prospects. If it were me i'd keep most or all of the very best prospects who are in the upper minors (top 5 or so) and trade guys like Triantos, Bellasteros etc. They also need to hold on to some prospects to deal in deadline trades if needed. Alcantara, Caissie etc are still very young. If they stay in the minors another season its not a big deal and they may even need it. If Soto isn't signed then Alcantara/Caissie can figure into the solution in the OF/DH in 2026 and beyond. That's 5 players for 4 spots with PCA, Happ, and Suzuki. Happ is gone after 2026, Seiya after 2027. Could trade both of them not long before they hit FA and reload the farm. Now you have some cheap pre-arb players that will free up payroll to spend on star players and extend other guys, maybe Steele or PCA. Which is why I support signing Soto. By the time Cam Smith might be ready Paredes will be more expensive and close to FA, so if Smith progresses well then trade Paredes a year or 2 months from FA and restock the farm. Let Nico walk in FA for a QO or trade him at next year's deadline and have Shaw replace him. We'd have the payroll space to acquire multiple elite players like Soto.

What's your point? The Dodgers had a luxury tax payroll of 340m in 2024. That's about 100m more than the Cubs, which is literally what Freeman, Betts, and Ohtani cost in 2024 towards the LT. Cubs FO can't play the same strategy as LA.

If we got 2.5 wins each out of catcher, 3B, and Hendricks' SP spot in 2024 that's 7.5 WAR improvement and we'd have been around 90-91 wins. If we had Soto in 2024 and found a way to add all his 8 WAR we'd have been at 91 wins or so too. I do recognize the value in having a very high WAR player like Soto, so I agree with you on that and which is why I support going after him, but I also know that it's not the end of the world if we don't acquire him. That's my only point here. There's some other options for some very good players that can get us close to the upgrade in production Soto would bring for the same AAV spent.

I'm going to go borrow 500k from the bank and buy myself a Lamborghini. I won't have to pay back the loan until 5-10 years from now (with interest). This is a winning investment strategy. Everything will work itself out.

They deferred Ohtani's salary

I said good young players, not good young prospects. A good young player is putting up good WAR in the MLB. A good young prospect is a potential good young MLB player. Baez, Contreras, Hendricks were good young players for us in 2016. Prospects are risky, a good young player already putting up numbers in the MLB is far less so. If fans think we're going to be a consistently good team by signing stars and trading away the farm for 1-year players they're fooling themselves. Trading prospects for cheap controllable guys like Busch and Paredes is more productive than an Alonso or Cease trade.

We dont have a payroll anywhere near the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, etc. so the FO can't behave like them and expect similar results. If we're going to have a payroll just under the cap and trade away most of our good prospects then we're taking away a lot of our surplus potential. If the Dodgers are outspending everyone they don't need to worry much about surplus, but we still do. You also seem to focus on the short term gains without much regard for the longterm consequences. Maybe because you're older and think you may not be around towards the end of a 12 year contract lol. That's not really fair to the rest of the fanbase though.