Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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and I replied: The gap between the first two is Rickett's fault. Second gap is Hoyer's fault. The last one is all on me. I was wrong, Cubs were 7th in payroll but 9th in luxury tax payroll haha.
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The defense, stolen bases, and speedy base running definitely give him a pretty high floor. Steamer has him at 2.6 WAR next year which makes no sense. If I were to guess I'd say 3.5.
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Adames is a big loss for them. But never bet against the Brewers lol
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It's going to be tough for the Cubs to score any of these 3b/2b guys if they can't guarantee a starting job for them. But it was either Jed or Carter post-Tucker trade who said that Shaw wouldn't be gifted a starting job, he'd have to earn it. I wouldn't mind this signing, I like him better than Rojas.
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Is having a top 10 pen for a team with lots of resources that wants to win the division and a World Series unrealistic? Our bullpen was 17th in FIP and xFIP last year. It was 12th in ERA but I wager having 5 gold glove-caliber defenders and the wind blowing in made that a mirage. Our starters were 18th in xFIP, likely helped by the same factors. Is this how they plan to build a 95 win team? Is it even good enough for 90 wins? This entire team is mid. Mid offense, mid rotation, mid bullpen, mid FO, horsefeathers ownership.
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They also have Ben Brown in the mix. I assume he's on the MLB roster. If anyone is in Iowa staying stretched out I think it would likely be Wicks over Brown. After Hodge and possibly Merryweather the pen looks very average. Ideally I swap out a guy like Miller and find a better arm at setup. Pearson's FB is just too straight to be a late-inning setup guy with a tight lead for me, it's HR city. IMO the setup guys right now are in pencil, you can't count on Hodge and Merryweather either. Hodge has the stuff but the control in the minors has been bad. I guess they're just trying to acquire decent arms and figure things out as they go and hoping a couple pop off and establish a late-inning role, even though this hasn't been a good strategy the last 2 years, at least in he first half. Even Brown isn't reliable with the neck. I guess this is just the reality these days.
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They can easily spend 40m even if they don't sign a big name player. 1 SP for 15-20m AAV, 1 closer-type reliever, and one solid corner INF bench bat has them there. They go low on the SP around 15m and they could add maybe a 2nd reliever and/or 2nd bench bat.
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I think Jed may have a purposeful strategy not to spend big on SP. There's a lot of variance with pitchers including getting hurt frequently. They may not want to risk a season on a 30 million AAV man getting hurt, even needing TJS etc. A 4 WAR pitcher goes down with TJS and a team on the playoff fringes like the Cubs have been are basically out of the playoffs for sure. Theo did similar with draft picks. Pitching prospects flame out at a higher rate so he drafted position guys and used FA and trades to grab SP.
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Can't see them cutting payroll after not making the playoffs again and adding Tucker
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I assume they carry 2 infielders on the bench as usual. Last year it was usually a corner guy (Wisdom) and someone who could play SS and middle INF (Mastro) so they could cover anywhere in a pinch. If Shaw gets a shot at 3B he can cover SS if Nico/Swanson get hurt, plus 2b. They also still have Mastro and Vazquez on the 40. They just signed that Vidal guy who can play anywhere but mostly SS/2b and has nothing to prove in AAA plus looks to be out of options and they gave up Mervis for. I think one of those guys gets a bench spot (likely Vidal) plus a corner guy . Not sure if there's a decent guy out there who plays both 3b/1b so hard to say what they do at 1b if they also want a Rojas type backing up Shaw at 3b. I think Jonathan Long (RHB) will be the primary 1b in Iowa, making Mervis expendable.
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Here's the list you might be referencing: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mlb-largest-contracts-2.html Of those 24 contracts, 12 were signed pre-2020 where we can say we have enough to judge them in hindsight. Of those 12, i'd say only 3 were worth it (Harper, Cole, Arod's first deal). Most of the rest were absolute disasters. Seems pretty clear that if you sign a guy to a big deal in their mid-20's like Harper/Soto/Arod its typically worth it (Trout's extension was some bad luck with injuries still in his prime.) but if you're signing a huge deal when a guy is 29-30+ y/o you're a fool unless you're the Mets/Dodgers and can pay 70m AAV for a few star years while the rest are pedestrian. For the vast majority of teams the data just doesn't back up the risk and you're playing a bad hand hoping to get really lucky.
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According to Fangraphs, before this signing the Cubs are at 191m in tax spending for 2025. That gives them about 50m to spend, minus around 10m in approx space they'll leave, so 40m in space left, is this correct? New loogy costs just under 3m so we're at 37m left. We're all guessing they sign another reliever, probably a closer-type, plus a SP and infield bench bat. Let's say 10m for the reliever. So 27m left. Most of that will go to the SP via trade/FA, probably 15-20m, leaving around 7 to 12m for bench bats and taking fliers on some guys for the pen/bench (MLB or minor league deals). Wildcard here is Sasaki. We get him for league minimum and it opens up 14-19m. That would make a trade for a quality 3B/2B utility type on the INF like Brandon Lowe a possibility (he'll make 10.5m) plus they could easily upgrade their closer-type to a Hoffman or Scott with 11m to spare, which could be spent on the pen/bench.
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This is definitely the loogy signing. Minter is possibly better but also projects the same on WAR, he was hurt last year and ended the year on the IL and is coming off hip surgery. He's also a bounce-back guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._J._Minter I agree they also need a quality late-inning reliever capable of closing, like a Yates. Agree these savings need to be spent elsewhere. If they don't spend at least 230m i'm not subscribing to MLB.TV or Marquee and am watching the games for free online.
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I don't think he needs to be fixed. He's pretty average for a reliever at this point, so he's fine. He's almost on par with Chafin according to XFIP and projections. I thought you didn't want the Cubs to spend much on relievers?
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Well he can get out lefty hitters.
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Well as I said, virtually all the other options suck too. 6m is probably too much. His fielding the last 2 seasons is probably influenced by luck, like his hitting was in 21-22 due to high BABIP. Seems more an average fielder, maybe a bit above average. I don't know his scouting because he was a 26th round pick and a non-prospect.
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They may prefer a bench guy to play 2b over 1b given Nico's surgery.
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Josh rojas sucks but so do most of the other non-Bregman 3b so as long as he doesn't cost much whatevs.
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Yeah Sasaki decision probably is the domino to fall in the market and for the Cubs. They'll know if they need to acquire another SP and sets the budget for their relievers and for a bench bat if any. What's the posting cut off date for Sasaki?
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He was just DFA'd last week. Makes some 40-man space, more backup options at 3b, 2b, CF, SS. etc Let's them promote Long to Iowa if they want.
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That's exactly what they're doing. Trading out assets for cost savings because Ricketts won't spend at the level the 3rd highest revenue team should. During Theo's run we could have held onto Cease or Torres if the team spent a bit more money to acquire a quality SP or closer instead of lacking serious talent and surplus the last few years because our farm system sucked. If we had Cease alone we'd have been in the playoffs in 2023 and probably 2024. Torres would have also given us 2-3 more wins at 3B each of the last couple of years as well, not to mention an upgrade on Russell in 2018-19. Might have nabbed us the NL Central in 2019 too. Thanks Tom.
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It could also be this soon: 1. Snell 2. Yamamoto 3. Ohtani 4. Glasnow 5. Sasaki
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Well what matters is if Jed thinks he can get more wins spending that 24m on Montgomery vs another player or combo of players. I agree 5m isn't a lot though. But he has to make choices, like 21m for a Buehler vs 24m for Montgomery etc. Say the Dbacks threw in a few million, i'd prefer Montgomery for 21m a lot more than Buehler.
