I agree that Bellinger is less risky, but which pitchers available aren't risky? They just signed Matt Boyd to 2/29 at 14.5m AAV and he's even riskier and won't throw the innings. Walker Buehler is risky. Flaherty is risky. The older quality FA SP are risky due to age. The top FA SP all are risky signings too being pitchers and who will be years past prime age at the end of the contract, plus some come with a QO. Even Crochet is risky.
Given Monty is on a 1 year, not especially old, no arm injuries last year, him at 23.6m AAV (luxury tax avg) is probably high but not terrible Given what others are getting Not saying I'd swap him with Belli though since it depends on what we have to replace Bellis bat and who's available at DH, OF, SP etc and their cost. Those calculations are complicated.