Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Have a link? Bad bullpens also turn close leads into losses. We saw it directly last year in April, May, and Sept. Relievers are used based on the score and leverage, so overall pen ERA isn't as relevant as how well your top 4 or so pen arms can hold leads. Winning by 4-3 or 8-3 is irrelevant, just like losing by 8-6 or 8-1.
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The Brewers had the best ERA in the MLB, and had good defense. Their bullpen was ridiculous. It had three sub-2 ERA guys, plus the ERA equivalents of 2 Alzolay's and a Merryweather. If you can convert virtually every lead after 5 IP into a win you're going to outperform your WAR and run differential.
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Our pen couldn't hold down leads for 3 out of the 6 months out of the season. I didn't like some of Ross's pen decisions in April and May, and a few in Sept, but it's not Ross' fault guys got hurt and the FO didn't give him much late-inning pen options or depth or even a clear closer option, or much pen help at the deadline. Anyways, I do think manager decisions matter over the course of 162 and especially in close games, I think it can absolutely be the difference in a handful of games. It's possible Ross cost them a few games but I don't think he's responsible for the 9-win gap with the Brewers. The Brewers had a fantastic pen to turn tight leads into wins, they didn't need to blow teams out.
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I think the Counsell hiring shows us the Cubs are still able to surprise us and our assumed expectations. Above all they're a corporate business and rely on the data, so if the numbers make sense they will pursue someone. I'm mostly satisfied that the Cubs won't do anything stupid longterm, they've been careful, so if they get someone it will probably be good for the team longterm. I won't be convinced until someone is signed. Ohtani would make them a lot of money in merch and ratings especially in Japan so he pays for some of his contract that way. Ohtani would be smart to sign in a huge market that can market him properly. Chicago can tell him he'll be the next Michael Jordan LOL.
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I enjoy pro sports teams manipulating me and insulting my intelligence.
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I think I said this before but I could see them making a real splash this winter, one of Ohtani/Soto, plus Yamamoto and/or Alfonso are not out of the question if they're willing to go over the cap for a couple years. If they want to add big contracts then they should wait and add the most elite player(s). Clearly Soto & Ohtani are elite and Yamamoto might be also. Guys like Bogaerts are very good players but if i'm paying multiple hundreds of millions on a contract I'd want the best in baseball. I can see them pursuing Soto and/or Yamamoto based on their ages, and they could make an exception on age for Ohtani.
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Yeah Boras can want and ask for whatever he wants, he only gets what teams are willing to offer.
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Shout-out to Bleacher Nation for stealing our Justin Turner takes. https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/11/07/justin-turner-cubs/
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I also would liked to have seen Little used more. But the late inning guys wore down through the summer, there wasn't really other guys to count on in close games then. Alzolay and Leiter were toast by star of Sept
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Cubs.com says Counsell was raised in Wisconsin, so location may have played a part in this, along with the money. https://www.mlb.com/cubs/news/craig-counsell-new-cubs-manager Also of note: both Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are FA's next offseason.
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Obviously some of the collapse was injuries and pen fatigure, but in the end of season presser Hoyer mentioned the uncharacteristic play of many players making defensive mistakes and lacking of hitting in high leverage/RISP, which they had excelled at during the summer push. The pen troubles are on Hoyer based on clear lack of depth, and its hard to blame defensive miscues on Ross for even Gold Glove caliber guys making bad plays. They probably were just trying too hard, but fatigue could also have been an issue which was on Ross. When Ross had clear roles defined in the pen I thought his pen handling was fine. Some of his moves when the pen struggled, like continuing to rely on Fulmer after some blown saves, were odd, but I guess also somewhat I thought his lineups were pretty good most of the time. The bunts were often weird though. He ran the running game well. The Cubs seemed to have a well functioning coaching staff and positive dugout vibe. I dont think Ross deserved to get fired but it's hard not to think it's an upgrade. Maybe the Cubs thought he wasn't the ideal guy to break in the young position guys coming up in the years ahead, I really don't know, I didn't have a huge problem with his approach, but maybe they butt heads . We'll never know.
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As a RHB option at 1B it's not the worst idea, as a back up/platoon for Mervis. A year older at 39 he might end up not being much of an upgrade over Wisdom though, if we assume Turner regresses at least a bit from last year. The Cubs seem to put a lot of emphasis on acquiring position guys still in their prime years, age 32 and under, he doesn't seem like their type. Fangraphs has Candelario projected for 1.8 WAR and 103 wRC+ next year per Steamer, That seems a bit low, but it's probably because of the bad year he had last year. I wonder if Candelario could be had on a 3 year deal. I wouldn't do 4 on him, especially with Matt Shaw in the wings. Candelario could always be traded down the line. If they're interested in giving Mervis and Morel a shot at 1B/3B next year then someone like him who can play both corners would be valuable as backup. I'd support them investing in a better player than types like Mancini/Villar.
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He could still DH, but he becomes much more expendable, it would make sense if he's put in a deal. I don't believe the Mets have any top prospects at 1B unless there's some young guy on the MLB club I'm forgetting.
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He'd probably get 5 or 6 years max, so maybe like 115/5, plus next season, so he'd be signed through age 34 which is isn't bad at all. He's been very durable. We'd get about 4 out of the 6 total years still around his prime years. The FA market was nuts with the years and payroll last year so it will be interesting to see if that continues this year. I still like Mervis, it would be fun to see how he does with more PA's.
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Maybe late to the party but I saw they picked up Hendricks and Gomes' options yesterday. Seems a little rich on Hendricks, my expectations aren't too high, but glad he's still on the team.
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I think it's a good value move for the Cubs based on what Counsell is capable of. He should pay for himself. 8m a year isn't a big investment in the grand scheme, even if it's expensive for a manager. I think it shows us they genuinely want to win, but I think that's been clear since last offseason. I don't think this signals whether or not they're going to go out and spend 400-500m on a player and/or go over the cap, but it's a great start to the offseason. Going cheap like 2021-22 has ended at least. I hope they do go over the cap, they can reset in a couple years when we have more pre-arb players in starting roles in the MLB.
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If they want to give Mervis a shot, Hoskins would be a good guy to have as a backup and platoon option vs LHP. There's essentially no change in our status at 1B from last offseason so if they take a similar approach I wouldn't be surprised, as long as they acquire backup options better than Mancini/Hosmer. Besides Mervis we don't really have other options at 1B longterm besides maybe BJ Murray (not enough power) and McGeary (below-average defensively and more of a DH). I'd be fine putting Mervis in a trade for Alonso if it comes with an extension. As Hoyer says, the books are clear longterm, and they have a lot of good prospects who project to be ready for the MLB over the next 2 seasons to fill numerous positions. If the Cubs are willing to go over the CBT line the next couple of seasons and then trade Happ 2 years into his extension they could absolutely afford one of Soto/Ohtani plus Yamamoto and Alonso on longterm deals and stay under the cap if they're willing to go with prospects at CF, LF, 3B, C, and multiple rotations spots, and they have the prospects in the upper minors to do that.
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If I were Counsell I'd manage a team like the Cubs over the Mets, who are always a hot mess. If he can help turn the Cubs into overachievers i'm all for it. Though I think the Brewers front office has a lot to do with that, putting a lot of emphasis on pitching/pen and defense which I think helps them win the close games, which is often cheaper than signing the big bats given their payroll limitations.
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I agree. Hoyer must really appreciate Counsell given all the games he's watched against him and pounced on the chance. Hard to pass up adding one of the best minds in baseball to add to the organization's braintrust. I don't see any clear reason for the Cubs to fire Ross outright based on performance, he was adequate.
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HOLY CRAP. I thought Ross was a decent manager, but had his blind spots. Counsell as a player always seemed like the biggest baseball nerd in the MLB and an overachiever, and he seems the same as a manager. This is shrewd move and a clear upgrade. I'm glad Hoyer is capable of making the tough choices to get better, similar to trading away our previous core. The 8m salary doesn't effect the payroll, Cubs using their resources well here. 8m buys you about a win (or 2 if you're lucky) in FA and I think Counsell can certainly contribute an extra win or 2 over a season, even just based on the catching infrastructure alone the Brewers have had. Brewers hitting lineup seems to suck every year on paper and they still score runs and win so I'm excited for this. This is a great value move for the Cubs and he can help them in constructing a team in the offseason also.
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I think the Cubs would sign a 25 y/o to a 10 yr deal. It's a far, far better idea than signing a 29/30 yo to an expensive 10 year deal, which IMO is a manifestly stupid the vast majority of the time.
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I can't really see the Cubs trading any of Wicks/Brown/Assad. They need the SP depth next year. They have a lot of position player prospects to use in trades. They can put Mervis in a deal if they want Alonso and start there. I also see Brown as better than Wicks.
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I think that's probably how it's going to go too. Looks more likely the bat may come via trade, and SP via FA. Next season we will have a very deep farm at the AAA/AA levels with many guys knocking on the door with essentially no clear holes in terms of positions. Given what we have in the farm upper levels and on the MLB team, I think 1B is the weakest position, followed by 3B. Shaw is a better prospect than Mervis, and I'm not sure if they'd want to block Shaw at 3B longterm on a trade, and he'll move quickly through the minors (should start the year at AA), and he could be up the 2nd half of 2025 barring injury. Alonso makes the most likely big hitter acquisition IMO. They have more quality options at DH next year and on the farm longterm than at 1B or 3B. Bellinger fills short-term needs, but not longterm ones, and putting him at 1B longterm seems like a waste, and I think he did overachieve a bit last year and will regress somewhat so not interested in an overpay there. Longterm I do believe they'd have the payroll room to also sign one of Soto or Ohtani, but i'm not sure they'd want to go over the cap the next year or 2 to do it, or sign the massive deals needed. You gotta think Soto is going to sign for 13+ years.
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There's no way a guy with Morel's athleticism and arm should be a DH. He might not be a 3B, but he can at least be an average-ish fielder somewhere i'd think. They need to completely abandon the super utility experiment, keep him at one position they feel is his best, and if that's the middle infield then trade him. If he ends up being a career DH or bad-fielding utility guy then they nerfed his development. You need skills and not just tools to be decent at several positions in INF & OF, and that starts a long time before even signing a pro contract. I don't think he's that bad a fielder, it's just that Madrigal was playing like a gold glover last year and he was stuck behind a lot of MLB regulars who are pretty good fielders. It was a stupid idea to try to turn him into a super utility because it's very apparent he doesn't have high skills (as opposed to raw athleticism) at anything baseball-wise and he was never going to reach his potential as a defender if he's not getting enough games in at any position to develop the instincts needed to play it well. Morel hasn't played more than a couple dozen games at 3B in any season since 2019. If that's because he wasn't good at it then they need to give up on the idea.
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No I just mean as of right now, without Stroman and Hendricks options included, and assuming they opt-in on Gomes, they have about 65m to spend. Hendricks coming back looks likely.
