Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Selling off Stroman and Taillon would be buying high and selling low and not a good strategy. Taillon will likely return to being the ~4.00 ERA pitcher he's been like he showed in the 2nd half (3.70 ERA), and Stroman had a specular 1st half.
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Well I never said the tax line is a hard limit or that they won't spend over the line, I'm just stating the fact that they don't have a lot of room under the line. They will spend several million on some vet relievers, they always do and they need them badly, they can't just ignore a pen that was their #1 weakness this past season. It also seems likely Hendricks comes back, though they probably negotiate a deal cheaper than his team option. They're going to have a lot more cheap surplus in the coming years with all the prospects starting to come up, so going over the tax line in 2024 and then dropping back down for to brief reset in a year or 2 seems like a logical thing to do for a team that doesn't want to consistently stay above the line. They didn't have to go over the line in 2016 because of all the cheap talent.
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If Stroman and Hendricks and Gomes come back they probably won't even be able to afford Bellinger without going over the tax line. They'll have 29m to spend, they'll keep at least 5m under the line if they want to stay under. So 24m to spend, and they still will add a couple of FA pen arms for around 7-8 million total. So we're talking 17m to spend. I really hope Jed is done with signing these borderline replacement FA's to multimillion contracts. Just get the Wisdom's, Tauchman's, Mastobuoni's, Hosmer's instead for dirt cheap.
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I agree with payroll estimates in the OP, similar to my estimates from data from sportac & BR. If I were to bet I'd say they stay under the tax with year, but hopefully i'm wrong. It's possible they go over this year and go slightly under next year to reset since they have a lot of money off the books next year. Bellinger + Yamamoto + some pen guys would be amazing for this winter, but wishful thinking I guess. A bit more do-able if they don't bring back Hendricks, but I think they will. Steele, Yamamoto, Horton, Taillon, Wicks/Brown would be a very nice rotation for 2025.
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I agree about extra-innings games, but Ross can't be blamed for a pen that lacked depth after the 3 late-inning guys that only solidified their roles in June, and a pen that was unable to hold close leads in 3 out of the 6 months of the year. Some of that is injuries, but a lot of that is on Hoyer who failed to bring in enough quality late-inning pen arm help in the offseason and at the deadline. Jose Cuas is fine but Cuas alone doesn't cut it. Fulmer and Boxberger in the offseason doesn't cut it on a roster that didn't even have a closer. One thing I'm worried about is the future health of Steele, Leiter, Alzolay next year. who were pushed hard because of the lack of quality pitching depth on this team. Again, not exactly all Ross' fault given what Hoyer gave him, plus injuries. Potentially sacrificing 2024 for 2023 is a bad idea. IMO Ross is fine, and can't be compared yet to Maddon, who had 2 late-season collapses in a row and created a team that was poorly disciplined and unaccountable, not to mention terrible at baserunning. 2023 was a result of a lack of pitching talent and some inexplicably poor defense and clutch hitting down the stretch, which is mainly on the players.
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I'd probably target Yamamoto and Bellinger first. Alonso would be down a notch since he'd cost prospects and the other 2 don't cost any comp picks. Bellinger also covers 2 potential holes in CF/1B as insurance in 2023 and longterm, and can slide to corner OF in future years also if needed e.g. an injury or PCA is able to hold down CF. PCA's defense and speed will make him an MLB regular anyways. I highly doubt they'd add 2 significant contracts this offseason unless Stroman opts out. i'm fine if Stroman stays for 2024.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto to...the Dodgers? Really? Again?
Stratos replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
What pit I can't imagine a guy who has never pitched in the MLB would get anything close to 40m AAV. His stats and age seem to compare to Masahiro Tanaka. He was a good MLB pitcher but not 40m AAV good. -
I think the current format is probably the best ever.
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2 losses and you're out after 162 games is crazy. It should be a best out of 5 series.
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Just saw that on Baseball Savant that PCA has 98th percentile sprint speed. Geez. Jared Young is also the fastest 1B in the MLB. He's as fast as Nico.
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Forgot about that one. Makes sense. Hard to see him as just a DH, he's very athletic.
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Soto is an excellent hitter but I think as a player he's a bit overrated because he's a bad fielder and is going to get even worse as he ages. There's no difference between giving up a hit with poor defense vs getting a hit. He's a 5-6 WAR player which makes him about as valuable as Swanson, though much younger obviously. Would be nice to acquire him.
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I watched Jed Hoyer's entire end of season press conference and didn't really learn anything. Reporters tried to get him to say whether they'd go over the lux tax threshold next year or about resigning Cody and he obviously wouldn't bite. He was supportive of Ross but didn't say if he'd be back or not. They decide on any coaching staff changes within a week or 2. IMO Ross will be back.
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Guys like Encarnacion are the exception, not the typical case. You don't make decisions based on exceptions and wishful thinking, you make them based on the data of what is most likely to occur. The point is even great position players typically decline after age 32, and many times steeply. Any GM would be a fool to want to pay a position player past age 32 at salaries based on their performance in their late 20's.. Sometimes you do have to pay a very good player past their early 30's in order to sign them, but I guarantee you Hoyer would love for Swanson's contract to be a few years shorter. Hoyer signed Happ and Suzuki through their prime years and these are good contracts. Contracts like Trea Turner, Bogaerts, Judge etc are bad contracts and usually end up a big money pit for teams.
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I didn't want Correa last year, or anyone on a 10 year deal, and I still don't. I agree that Bellinger's injury and poor last few seasons before 2023 are worrisome, I'm always skeptical of an unusually good season before FA, and he seemed to get pretty lucky this year on base hits falling in, I expect the career-high BABIP and AVG to go down maybe to around .270-.280, but he's still a good player and a great athlete with 5 tools who can play multiple positions where we have holes.
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After 2024, the Cubs should have more payroll room for the offense to make a splash because we could see more young guys coming up and taking starting spots in the rotation and hopefully on the position side. If we assume Stroman and Hendricks are back for 2024, in 2025 those type of expensive arms may not be needed as they may be replaced with guys like Horton, Brown, and Wicks (with Taillon and Steele) if all goes well. On the position side, if even 3 out of PCA, Shaw, Morel, Caissie, Mervis, McGeary, can be regulars in 2025+ you get some more surplus and payroll room as well. If e.g. PCA can hold down CF, Morel or Shaw at 3B, and one of Mervis/McGeary/Caissie/Canario etc at 1B or DH then they should have payroll room for a big FA signing after 2024 like Soto, who would probably DH. You should still have room for Bellinger. Stroman, Hendricks, Mancini, Bote, Smyly off the books after next season is a savings of about 58 million to spend next off season, though I think Steele's arbitration should eat a bit of that. But most other guys are either locked into contract or pre-arb.
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Adam Dunn? His career was dunn after age 32. Richie Sexson's production was done after age 31. Ryan Howard done after 31. You really can't count on any player being good after age 32. I'd stay away from Alonso. At least Bellinger has 2 years on him, he probably has 4-5 prime years left. Sign him to a Swanson-like deal, maybe a little less? 6/160?
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Using Sportac's luxury tax payroll calculations, they are at 153m payroll which includes committed money + arb and pre-arb player estimates, dead money, benefits, minor league 40-man salaries etc. That doesn't include Stroman, Gomes, Hendricks coming back. So they're at 84 million in space. Add Stroman and Gomes, plus Hendricks at 12m and they're at 42.4m. They spent about 7m on Fulmer/Boxberger this year so let's assume they acquire another 2 veteran pen arms for the same in 2024, so we're at about 34.5. Consider they'll keep at least 5 million in space under the cap and they're at 29.5m in payroll spending left, which would be just enough for Bellinger, or Hoskins + Bader + around 4-5 million left for an upgrade somewhere else like the pen.
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Here's my 2024 payroll commitment breakdown for luxury tax purposes. 148 million: guaranteed contracts (assuming Gomes and Stroman come back, and Hendricks re-signs for 12m (10.5m salary + 1.5m buyout) 10m in arbitration salaries (Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather) 2m for Steele + Wicks/Assad 3m for pre-arb bench bats (e.g. Amaya, Morel, Tauchman) 3m for pre-arb pen arms (e.g. Hughes, Thompson, Wesneski) 15m = dead weight (Barnhart, Mancini, Bote) 3m in minor league 40-man salaries 17m in player benefits TOTAL PAYROLL = 201 million 2024 luxury tax cap = 237 million So there's about an estimated 36 million in payroll they still have under the cap to use to add players, keeping in mind they like to keep at least 5 million under the cap for in-season flexibility. That would be about enough to sign an impact player like Bellinger (26m AAV over 6 years?) plus a couple of quality FA veteran pen arms. The team comes back essentially unchanged but (hopefully) a deeper pen for late-innings, unless they also make a trade. If no Bellinger then they have to replace his bat in the lineup and find a solution for CF and 1B.
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Hoskins would be nice, a lot will depend if they resign Bellinger. I can't really see them resigning Candelario though that would be nice. Bellinger should be a priority. At some point we have to start playing the kids, but I'd keep Canario as a corner OF/DH backup in AAA. I don't think the Cubs have as much money to spend as we think. Heyward is off the books, but Nico and Happ get 10m raises each, and Hendricks and Stroman probably come back, though Hendricks maybe on a slightly cheaper deal. We have 15 million in dead weight in Mancini/Barnhart/Bote, plus 9.5m in Smyly, and another 17 million in benefits that counts toward luxury tax.
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Hoskins would be nice, a lot will depend if they resign Bellinger. I can't really see them resigning Candelario though that would be nice. Bellinger should be a priority. At some point we have to start playing the kids, but I'd keep Canario as a corner OF/DH backup in AAA. I don't think the Cubs have as much money to spend as we think. Heyward is off the books, but Nico and Happ get 10m raises each, and Hendricks and Stroman probably come back, though Hendricks maybe on a slightly cheaper deal. We have 15 million in dead weight in Mancini/Barnhart/Bote, plus 9.5m in Smyly, and another 17 million in benefits that counts toward luxury tax.
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Actually if this team had a solid bullpen the whole year they could have been pushing 90 wins this season. We gave up a lot of wins in April, May, and Sept because of the pen. Our pythagorean W/L was 90-72. We had the 3rd best offense in the NL behind Dodgers and Braves.
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We all want to keep Bellinger, but with PCA in CF and Mervis/McGeary at 1B/DH and others like Canario and Morel at DH after Shaw comes up to play 3B do we really have room for Bellinger longterm? He'd fit well in 2024, they could play Morel at 3B and DH Mervis/Canario so there's lots of room at CF/1B for Bellinger in 2024, but in 2025/26 years somebody will probably need to be moved. Happ is signed through the 2026 season. I love Happ as a competitor and leader but we need more SLG/HR on this team, and his SLG was .431 for a LF and not much better last year with an inflated AVG/BABIP. Depending on how things go with PCA/Mervis, I wouldn't mind PCA spending another year in AAA and going with Bellinger in CF in 2024, and giving Mervis a longer shot at 1B in 2024 with Bellinger as a backup and/or Wisdom able to play 1B against LHP. Then they can think about maybe trading Happ in 2025 or 2026, and putting Bellinger in a corner OF spot. Happ can stay if Mervis or PCA flames out and McGeary is only a DH.
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PCA is not ready for prime-time, his decision-making is terrible, still a low baseball IQ he clearly needs to develop. He needs a year in AAA. They likely won't re-sign Belli but they need a stopgap. PCA can learn on the job in MLB I guess but it's not going to be pretty, seems like a waste.
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He'll be rehabbing TJS with Alzolay and Leiter.
