Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Imagine the Dbacks getting into the WS on a 84-win season....trailing the Cubs in the Wildcard race at the beginning of Sept weren't they? Sigh.....
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Stroman has been a disappointing signing. 138/136 IP in 2022/2023, only worth 2.0 and 2.7 WAR in those years. Paying around 24 million AAV for a sub-3 WAR player is not good value. I hope he opts out. In 2021 the Mets let him throw 179 IP after not pitching a single inning in 2020. Significant injury risk from doing that, but the Mets didn't care, he was a FA.
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If you had to choose, in 2024 would you guys rather go Bellinger CF/Mervis 1B or Tauchman-PCA CF/Alonso 1B (minus prospects traded for Alsono, likely including Mervis). Assuming Alonso signs an extension.
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Mervis and Hoskins have definite upside potential, which for a team being squeezed in budget under the CBT line and already only borderline playoff contenders they may need some high upside risks to payoff to succeed, like Bellinger in 2023. The problem is yeah they're both risky, Hoskins with the year missed, 2 years older since his last opening day, and a major injury that could affect hitting, defense, and running. Might depend on what Hoskins wants. Conforto got 2/36 from the Giants last year, but he was once a 4-5 win player. Hoskins is a 2.5 WAR guy at best. I'm thinking maybe 1 yr, 12m. Or 2/24 with player opt-out?
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Polanco seems pretty good. Little worried about his 3 different injuries last year, but they could get him at a bit of a discount because of that too. We need a 3B, whether its Morel or whomever (who i'd like to give a chance to, we need as many HR in the lineup), but we don't really need anyone to play 2B. We have Morel and Madrigal to backup Nico, and Shaw/Luis Vazquez in a pinch. At SS we have Nico and Morel to backup Swanson, plus Madrigal or Shaw/Vazquez in a pinch. Ideally if we acquired another 3B i'd like him to also be able to play 1B like Candelario did. Basically an upgrade to Wisdom. Polanco has never played 1B as a pro, but he could play some there in ST like how Madrigal learned 3B last year. Or there's someone out there who can play the 1B/3B role.
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Wow Garcia just shut up Astros fans. Cubs are so lucky the Astros left their division. edit: Astros fans leaving en masse after Garcia's bomb LOL
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If they spend the same I think the Phils can be about the same next year. I don't think they can be much better. They had good health this season though, so things can always go downhill there.
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Kyle was essentially batting practice (around 7.40 ERA) over 3 of the 6 months in 2021, and was bad in 2 of 3 months in 2022. We can't go on assumptions and feelings even though we love the guy, we only have the numbers to go by, and he was pitching poorly. This is also an assumption, but I think it's possible they rode him too hard in 2021 after COVID. He only pitched 81 IP in the COVID shortened 2020 season, then they pitched him 181 IP in 2021. Your muscles etc can atrophy if you aren't pitching as much, his arm may not have been able to handle a full season load in 2021 like previous seasons, which may have caused the injury, and hurt his effectiveness in the last 2 months of 2021 when he was horrible because he might have been gassed. Anyways, it's all speculation. It could be age as well, who knows, fans only have the #'s to go by, and there's some red flags. The K rate was also down last year.
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Man he looks like he swings a heavy piece of lumber.
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I never heard that, is it true he was injured both those years, or you just guessing? That would change things. Apparently his MRI was clean when coming back in 2023 so that's at least good news.
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Kyle is kind of a BORP at this point. 4.77 ERA in 2021, 4.80 ERA in 2022, then injured. More likely than not he doesn't repeat what he did last year and could easily get hurt again. Good for depth but I hope they don't overspend.
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I'd also like to see Mervis start the year on the team. I get why they didn't last year, they waited for him to get going in mid-season form and he only had one successful pro season under his belt at the time. I'd like to see him get a decent # of PA's in 2023 unless he's horrid or they find someone better. If he can manage 80-100 rWC+ just let him play. They still need a backup plan and a RHB 1B to possibly platoon vs LHP. Wisdom might fit, or someone else, i'm done with Wisdom at 3B. Looks like he might get about 2.5 mil in arbitration this winter. Non-tender territory.
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Breslow confirmed my point at 14:35 in that interview that things like velo and grips/stuff are much easier to improve/teach than command. Thanks for posting.
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I would hope they care most about just getting outs no matter how its done. There's more than one way to get outs. Velo is a bit overrated because things like command, changing speeds, deception, movement are all used to get hitters out, and you need at least 2 or 3 of those to be an effective pitcher and velo doesn't need to be one of them, as guys like Maddux, Steele, Stroman and many others prove. I think they sometimes try to target pitchers with attributes that aren't as teachable, like command, velo, and certain types of deception (ie: sidearm throwers) and try to develop their pitch grips/shapes to get more effectiveness out of them. This was probably the plan with Taillon.
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If the Cubs spent what the Phillies spent this year they could have been just as good as them., that I agree They don't have to go out and sign stars to bad contracts to be good though.
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Dombrowski also signed the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2014. In a few years the Phillies are going to start to suck and be hobbled with the Harper and Turner contracts as those guys (plus Realmuto, Castellanos etc) get into their mid 30s and decline. All that to pay for a peak 90 win team. Would be nice if the Cubs spent more, but would rather the Cubs have a more sustainable plan and keep signing good players through their peak years.
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I agree they should have added more arms, and they also pitched Adbert/Leiter/Merryweather to death from June through August due to the lack of depth and I think those guys just wore down, maybe even Fulmer too. They just didn't have enough depth. They need to anticipate injuries will happen through the year and have to the depth to get through it. I think they did have a bit more bad luck than average with so many guys injured or regress early in the year.
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Interesting bat, he would definitely need to be able to play an adequate 1B though especially if they don't resign Bellinger. I can see them signing some kind of bench RHB at 1B again.
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Cubs can acquire a good SP in FA this offseason if they want. If they trade prospects it would make sense to acquire someone that's hard or impossible to get in FA this winter. e.g. Sean Murphy would have been a good grab last offseason. Glasnow isn't even worth the money, Tampa would have to eat some. Given the deal Soto rejected from the Nationals (about 15/450) I can't see him extending before entering FA and therefore not worth trading for either.
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I think Morel has potential in the field and the plate. Hoyer has said he has good hands. He seems better on the INF, probably ideally a middle INF it seems, but when I went to a series late last year he was working on extra groundballs before every game when most of the other guys were in the dugout. He obviously needs work at 3B since last year and i'm sure he got a ton of work in throughout this season. The Cubs seemed to prioritize defense at 3B this past season, Madrigal provided value there and was hitting well for a while. I'm sure he'll work on it during the winter, maybe even a bit of winter ball at 3B. He deserves another shot. He got moved around a lot in the minors and last year in the MLB at different positions, he hasn't had a chance to really work and settle anywhere. He's a great athlete, I think he has a real shot to be at least average defensively on the INF if they let him play and get better.
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Selling off Stroman and Taillon would be buying high and selling low and not a good strategy. Taillon will likely return to being the ~4.00 ERA pitcher he's been like he showed in the 2nd half (3.70 ERA), and Stroman had a specular 1st half.
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Well I never said the tax line is a hard limit or that they won't spend over the line, I'm just stating the fact that they don't have a lot of room under the line. They will spend several million on some vet relievers, they always do and they need them badly, they can't just ignore a pen that was their #1 weakness this past season. It also seems likely Hendricks comes back, though they probably negotiate a deal cheaper than his team option. They're going to have a lot more cheap surplus in the coming years with all the prospects starting to come up, so going over the tax line in 2024 and then dropping back down for to brief reset in a year or 2 seems like a logical thing to do for a team that doesn't want to consistently stay above the line. They didn't have to go over the line in 2016 because of all the cheap talent.
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If Stroman and Hendricks and Gomes come back they probably won't even be able to afford Bellinger without going over the tax line. They'll have 29m to spend, they'll keep at least 5m under the line if they want to stay under. So 24m to spend, and they still will add a couple of FA pen arms for around 7-8 million total. So we're talking 17m to spend. I really hope Jed is done with signing these borderline replacement FA's to multimillion contracts. Just get the Wisdom's, Tauchman's, Mastobuoni's, Hosmer's instead for dirt cheap.
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I agree with payroll estimates in the OP, similar to my estimates from data from sportac & BR. If I were to bet I'd say they stay under the tax with year, but hopefully i'm wrong. It's possible they go over this year and go slightly under next year to reset since they have a lot of money off the books next year. Bellinger + Yamamoto + some pen guys would be amazing for this winter, but wishful thinking I guess. A bit more do-able if they don't bring back Hendricks, but I think they will. Steele, Yamamoto, Horton, Taillon, Wicks/Brown would be a very nice rotation for 2025.
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I agree about extra-innings games, but Ross can't be blamed for a pen that lacked depth after the 3 late-inning guys that only solidified their roles in June, and a pen that was unable to hold close leads in 3 out of the 6 months of the year. Some of that is injuries, but a lot of that is on Hoyer who failed to bring in enough quality late-inning pen arm help in the offseason and at the deadline. Jose Cuas is fine but Cuas alone doesn't cut it. Fulmer and Boxberger in the offseason doesn't cut it on a roster that didn't even have a closer. One thing I'm worried about is the future health of Steele, Leiter, Alzolay next year. who were pushed hard because of the lack of quality pitching depth on this team. Again, not exactly all Ross' fault given what Hoyer gave him, plus injuries. Potentially sacrificing 2024 for 2023 is a bad idea. IMO Ross is fine, and can't be compared yet to Maddon, who had 2 late-season collapses in a row and created a team that was poorly disciplined and unaccountable, not to mention terrible at baserunning. 2023 was a result of a lack of pitching talent and some inexplicably poor defense and clutch hitting down the stretch, which is mainly on the players.
