Stratos

Similar to Hendricks or Stroman?

Other players are getting raises though. Happ and Nico getting about 10m each, which alone eat up Heyward's savings. Without Stroman and Hendricks in the equation, and you assume the Cubs will spend what they usually do on the pen plus factor things like arb & pre-arb players and leaving 5-10m in space, they have about $65m to spend under the cap. 65m to figure out another SP plus 1B, CF, 3B/DH, though Morel can fill one of the 3B/DH. You have to think they'll probably sign a 2nd SP e.g. Hendricks for depth. A significant trade is also pretty likely this offseason IMO given the prospect crunch in AAA next year and increasing 40-man issues.

They save 21m, but actually 23.7m in luxury tax room. I agree that they need to go out and get a good SP to replace him. This winter i'm sure Cubs will at least be involved in any top SP they like this winter.

I like the idea of using the salaries per their luxury tax implications instead, since that's what's relevant to the CBT line. The luxury tax salaries I reference are here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/

Cubs are going to have another 40 man crunch, and there's going to be a squeeze for playing time at Iowa next year. Having that many good prospects in AAA is a good thing but you have to assume there's going to be trades this winter. The Cubs have at least one of their top 15 prospects at every position, and virtually all of them will start the year in AAA or AA next year.

Amazing talent, but there's questions like how does he come back from the TJS, and how long can he be effective both pitching and hitting, or even keep that up? You paying him 45m a year in the last half of his 30's if he's not a 2-way guy? Will be interesting to see who wins that bidding war. I have no idea how you'd put a price on that guy with those questions.

Well as 1908 said they'll have to make a decision there. If they don't want him at 3B then we need a 3B. Maybe flip him for someone similar (young/cheap) who can actually play 3B with a team that needs a middle infielder. They could also just give Morel and Mervis a shot and acquire someone like Jorge Polanco or someone else who can play 3B/1B to back them up and/or platoon at times. Someone better than a replacement scrub that can't field like Mancini. You trade Morel for Soto and the Cubs are right at the tax line and don't have a 3B, an 1B, or CF. Between Soto, Alonso, Bellinger, Yamamoto, Ohtani etc I can see the Cubs landing one, but highly doubt they'll grab more than one and push the payroll to $260m or whatever it would take. Next year they either need to spend over the CBT or find more surplus and with cheapo Ricketts we know which direction we'll need to go. We can't keep filling every position with players making FA salaries with a cheap owner and expect to be a 95 win team.

If the Cubs are going judge Morel's ability to play 3B adequately from a month of winter ball and taking some groundballs in camp after not playing the position for a year they're fools and deserve what they get. He needs to play.

Well the Cubs aren't going to know if Morel can play 3B unless they play him there.

The Cubs had Heyward, Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Bote, Rios, Hosmer etc on the payroll last year which cost about 50 million and contributed nothing and absolutely cost them wins and a playoff berth had they spent that better, not even mentioning underperformance by guys like Taillon, Fulmer, Boxberger etc. They didn't have enough high surplus players or payroll to make up for these inefficiencies. Sure there's luck and variance, and they absolutely had some luck in 2016 and some bad luck 2018-2020, but the 2015-2017 Cubs having high surplus guys like Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Hendricks (who all made under 1 million) wasn't simply luck. They played a lot of good prospects which gave them payroll room to add quality players from outside the org and FA, Again i'm not saying don't trade for Soto, i'm saying if they want to win with Soto in 2024 they should keep as many low cost quality players (surplus) on the MLB roster as they can, including Morel. A prospect like Triantos is expendable in such a trade because the Cubs will get a comp pick anyways if Soto walks next winter.

If Soto is on the team, how is the team not better with Morel on it? They can give him playing time at 3B, he can play SS or 2B if there's an injury, he can play OF if there's an injury. Good hitters on the MLB roster who make league minimum are also a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging.

You're removing some talent and adding better talent. You net gain talent yes, but not as much compared to if you traded Soto for minor leaguers who won't contribute next year. Morel was our 3rd best hitter and makes no money so has surplus. As a 1 year strategy it just doesn't make much sense to trade Morel when we can just as easily be trading prospects. The Cubs need to decide if they're trying to win in 2024 or 2026.

See my recent reply to Transmogrified Tiger. In short, we can't just use those run totals, you have to adjust run value for defensive position a player plays. A DH is worth -17.5 runs, a LF or RF is worth -7.5 runs. Soto will mostly DH for us. fWAR already adjusts value for position played. 2024 projections were my own, you're right they aren't out yet. Projecting Morel for around 2.5 fWAR (if he plays a full season) and Soto for about 5.5 WAR seems pretty fair. and accurate. For record, I'm worried about Bellinger going forward because his expected BA and SLG stats are greatly below what he put up in 2023....everything he hit seemed to find a hole, so I think luck was a factor. His 2023 xSLG is shockingly around .430, which is around 100 points below what he put up. Anyways, see my reply to Tiger, I'm not against a Soto trade even on 1-year, but we shouldn't be removing talent from the MLB roster on a win-now move, we should be taking it from prospects in the minors who won't contribute in 2024. Morel was the 3rd best hitter (wRC+) on the team last year, and will probably continue to improve, his wRC+ went up 10 points from last year.

See my reply to Transmogrified Tiger.

The # of good defenders on the team already is not relevant, nor the number with "well-rounded profiles". What matters is the total value of all the players on the team in terms of creating and preventing runs. Soto is a 5-6 WAR player, his value is 5-6 wins above a replacement player, it doesn't really matter how it breaks down. If he DH'ing for the Cubs, which he will most of the time, his value/WAR drops because it's easier to replace a DH than any other position. According to fangraphs, a LF (or RF) is penalized -7.5 runs in value, and a DH is worth -17.5 runs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/explaining-win-values-part-three/ The issue with the Cubs isn't spending and payroll, they spent enough last year to win and will again this year, their issue in 2023 was efficiency. They desperately need more surplus and efficiency. They clearly overspent on Mancini and Smyly who were terrible, Barnhart also, Fulmer/Boxberger plus Rowan Wick/Adrian Sampson were busts, Taillon underperformed pretty badly in his first year, Rios and Hosmer were crap, Stroman arguably under-performed, and Heyward and Bote provided nothing for the millions they made. That's almost half the payroll in either under-performance or total waste. They got surplus from Nico, Steele, Happ, Bellinger, plus a few pen guys and less significant players (Assad, Morel, Tauchman etc), but the pen was useless at holding leads half the year because they didn't spent enough on late-inning depth. The difference between 2016 and 2023 wasn't payroll, it was efficiency and surplus. The whole point of being a GM is squeezing as many wins out of every million spent as possible. I'm not at all against a Soto trade, even on a 1-year, but trading our DH (who can also play middle INF and potentially 3B) who was 3rd on the team in wRC+ last year for a much better DH plus the cost of 33m is not the impact move I think some people think it is. Soto at 33m arguably still has some surplus, it's a good acquisition. But Soto on a 1-year is a win-now move so we need as much MLB talent and surplus as possible in 2024, so as i've said they should trade a prospect that won't contribute in 2024, like Triantos or Arias, or Rojas etc., not trading away our 3rd best hitter (#2 now that Bellinger is FA) who makes league minimum.

Soto is indeed an incredible hitter. But what matters at the end of the day is what total value he adds to a team. How many runs/wins he adds. He's worth 5-6 WAR, it doesn't matter how he gets to 5-6 WAR. We can't just admire his amazing hitting and ignore the fielding and baserunning, which are bad and eat a portion of the value he adds with the bat. He could be a good hitter + a great fielder, or an average hitter + a great fielder + great baserunner and add the same total value to the team. The breakdown is irrelevant, what matters is the total value he produces as a player. Silver Slugger and Home Run derby awards and batting titles are fun but they aren't a part of the math equation for teams winning games. Take 30 hits away from Soto so he loses the batting title and Silver Slugger and give those 30 hits to Happ and it doesn't really make any difference to value added/subtracted to the team. 30 hits are 30 hits.

I think if the Cubs want to get better for 2024 they need to trade prospects and especially ones that aren't going to make much or any impact on the Cubs in 2024. In a Morel for Soto swap you're adding Soto but removing Morel who will already contribute on the MLB roster in 2024, while also eating 33m in spending space. Morel's 2.5 WAR (or whatever) is gone, and you add Soto's 5-6 WAR and remove 33m of payroll to spend in FA. We just paid 33m + 5 more years of Morel to add an extra 3 WAR to the team in 2024. I just can't see how the math make sense if we only have Soto for 2024. Any GM can easily use that 33m to add 3 WAR in FA and keep Morel. Heck you can do it for 23m, and have 10m more to improve the team plus keep Morel. You could sign Candelario, you could sign one of the quality SP that are going to be FA this year. I agree with you that Soto being an all-star/superstar doesn't factor into the math at all, except he may sell some jerseys, which is going into Ricketts' pocket anyways.

Soto is a bad fielder, he's a DH, we can't just throw that out, plus the fact that he's a poor baserunner. I'm going by projected WAR for 2024. Bellinger's WAR was muted this year because he played so much 1B, but yes has a good chance to regress at least a bit offensively. Morel played mostly only DH also, and didn't play a full season on the Cubs anyways and will get more than 429 PA, and has potential to get better offensively and defensively. If he can play just average defense and learn to not whiff on every non-fastball on the outer-half because he's trying to pull every ball he sees then he can be an all-star. Bellinger adds a lot of value given he can play 2 positions fairly well where we have holes next year: CF and 1B. Bellinger is of course only one example. You're basically trading Morel + 33m for Soto. That 33m could go towards Yamamoto + a good reliever, or towards an Ohtani contract, or to Candalario + Mitch Garver, or whatever. DH isn't a big priority since anyone in the org can fill that (Mervis? Canario? Morel? Rotate regulars to give rest?), but they need a 3B, CF, 1B, SP, RP etc, and if you acquire Soto you're basically taking 2 or 3 good options at those positions off the roster to have a great hitter at the least valuable position that anyone who can hit can fill adequately. If Soto and Morel made the same salary next year you make that trade in a heartbeat, but Soto making 33m and the fact Morel makes the minimum is a major factor. Soto doesn't have a ton of surplus.

Morel + Bellinger + cash > 1 year of Soto? I think the Cubs might be a better team with Morel and then used that 33m to sign e.g. Bellinger + money left over for another upgrade than with Soto. Bellinger + Morel probably nets you the same WAR in 2024 but is cheaper and you'd have both for several years to come. I probably wouldn't trade for Soto anyways unless there was an extension.

The key with Soto for me is that I just don't believe he will ever sign an extension. He seems 100% intent on testing free agency. If we were all him, just 1 year out from FA, i think we'd all do the same as well. It's the best business decision. If the Cubs still want to give up good prospects for only 1 year of Soto then they have to go out and spend to add more talent to make it worth it. It just doesn't seem like a Cubs kind of play. They didn't even jump on Sean Murphy last year, who was a great fit. I think Yamamoto is the most likely for us between Soto, Ohanti, and him.

Well every MLB organization disagrees with you. You can name all of the exceptions you want, that doesn't make it a trend. I can name a whole bunch of people who smoked liked a chimney their whole life and never got cancer, it doesn't mean smoking doesn't cause cancer. Zambrano peaked at age 23 in 2004 and got progressively worse year after year after that, and was toast by age 30. Some guys have arms that can put up with punishment, a lot of guys don't, and you'll never who which is which.

Maybe. They were also like 10-15 years older with a lot of strength build up over many years. I saw similarities with Dusty Baker's usage and how the Cubs used Steele and Alzolay etc this season. When you're in the hunt to make the playoffs it's hard to let the foot off the gas when you're thirsty for wins and guys are pitching great with no great alertantives. I hope the Cubs don't pay for it next year.

Dusty is a good guy, a stubborn ill-informed fool at times who destroyed our young arms, but a good man, I wish him the best.

I think he would for the right player. Swanson got 177m and he was going to be 29 y/o. If a good player is 25 years old signing them to a 8-10 year deal isn't super risky, not like the Turner/Judge etc contracts last year. The fact that Yamamoto hasn't played in the MLB and is a pitcher is the risky part. But Ohtani was a risk too.

1. I don't really think they wanted a SP who threw 138 IP both seasons, got injured twice, and had ERA's that were above average but not not near the TORP-type ERA's he put up in the previous 2 seasons before he signed. They wanted the guy from 2019-2021. I really don't think there's much debate that his time with us has been a bit disappointing. 2. I like Yamamoto but i'm not one of the big cheerleaders here., I agree he comes with risk due to never pitching here. But he'll still do well in the MLB I would wager and probably is a TORP, maybe around a 3.00 ERA, or high 2's ERA? I was just making a statement. Whether we get Yamamoto or not, Stroman opting out would be good for the Cubs, but not at all terrible if he opts in.