Stratos

Yeah they have leverage for sure, but it's still all up to him, he doesn't have to accept the offer. There's risks on both sides here. But he'll still become a FA by around 30 y/o or somewhere still in his prime years very likely. I think the best way for any team to spend money is to extend good players through their prime years. I would even overpay a bit to get a really good player to extend a few years than sign a really good player until they're 40 years old. Maybe not overpay before a kid has even played MLB baseball, but for someone like Nico or whomever why not.

I would think for the teams involved that the negotiations are more important than the GM meetings. I wonder if no deal is reached if they all break for the meetings, then come back to finish the negotiations. But they need to get this stuff done for these teams to move on with their offseasons so maybe not. IMO we can look to which teams have signed other significant signings so far, especially SP, to see who is definitely out of the Ohtani sweepstakes. Cardinals obviously haha.

Is it possible he gets a 600m contract? 50m AAV x 12 years = 600m

Nobody knows anything, it's all BS until the deal gets close.

The Jays (and any team) would have a ton more revenue with Ohtani, they could increase payroll and easily keep those pre-arb guys. Ohtani literally pays for himself and thensome with the revenue he brings in. He could get a crazy contract. But the thing is, it's not guaranteed. If Ohtani doesn't play like Ohtani in say 5 years, or doesn't come back to pitch like he did, then he isn't "Ohtani", and the revenues from him would drop, so teams just can't assume revenues over the total of his contract.

I watched Imanaga's start in the WBC final game vs USA from March. He just looked "ok". His stuff was very average, his curve maybe below average, maybe a plus split. Good command. Looked like a MORP. Would rather they target a TORP

Toronto is the media hub for Canada FWIW and everything broadcasts nationally, but i'm not sure how it would compare to Chicago re: media. Toronto media can be intense, but Jays media is pretty chill, the fans and media aren't as diehard as Cubs fans. LA obviously must be crazy for him media-wise, with the paparazzi etc., but on the other hand everyone there is used to seeing celebs NY would be crazy too, he couldn't move in that city.

I live in Canada and have lived in Toronto. Toronto has a very large Asian population, though mostly Chinese and Filipino. They could use a hitter plus a SP so i could see them targeting Ohtani. They also have a large population for the Great Toronto Area of about 7 million, and have a stadium with a large seating capacity at 50k, which they could fill if Ohtani is signed and the team is good. The Jays are also broadcast nationally across Canada to all cable subscribers regardless of cable package, so the revevnue potential there for Toronto is quite good. Whereever he signs, I think the revenue Ohtani will bring in will have a huge impact for his suitors obviously beyond just his ability as a ballplayer to help a team win games.

WetButt broke the news on Q. But I want to hear what KatyPerrysBootyHole has to say about these Ohtani rumours.

Agree. There's numerous good players available in FA and likely available in trade also. They can sign Ohtani, or for about the same price of Ohtani's AAV sign Bellinger + Snell, or numerous other combinations of good players that will improve the team. How much they spend in payroll in 2024 is more important than which good players they sign. A 5 WAR guy + a 3 WAR guy compared to two 4 WAR guys...not much of a difference really. Also the idea that any MLB team needs a "megastar" to build around is illogical. A good team needs a lot of good players. Trout and Ohtani have won nothing in Anaheim because their teams aren't good.

Like last year, i think they'd rather have the best players on the MLB roster than worry about who is owed what.

Hard to see them making a deal like this before Ohtani is signed. If they lose out on Ohtani the Cubs can pivot to a FA TORP as an option. If they land Ohtani then trading for a 1-year SP seems more likely and acquiring a SP who has a multiyear deal less likely.

If they sign Ohtani, with the extra revenue there's no excuse not to go over the 2nd threshold and get close to 277 and take advantage of that signing while he's still in his prime years, along with Swanson.

I hope this is true.

Yeah. He's averaged 75 IP since his first full season in 2018 if we take out the 2020 COVID year. We'd have to prepare for him missing half his starts. 25 mil + prospects for him is pretty rich. He'd be our best SP ability-wise. It's tough if the 2024 season ends up riding on whether this guy's arm holds up. And it would suck if he's hurt during Oct and we don't have our best SP in the playoffs. But in 2023 we also took a bet on Bellinger, who if he had another crappy season we probably wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs. But if the Cubs want to pinch pennies or not commit to another SP longterm it might be the way they go. There's some Bellinger vibes here.

That's odd. I wonder if they purposefully underpaid him for 2023 knowing they'd like to trade him after 2023 and try to pawn off the $25m on someone else. That's some cheapskate accounting LOL.

If we do sign Ohtani that's probably like 50m towards the CBT. I could see them then trading for TORP SP on a 1-year (Bieber, Glasnow, Burnes), signing some pen arms and calling it an offseason. Maybe they also grab a cheap or modest bat in CF or 1B, but they probably wouldn't need to. They could go with Madrigal plus Wisdom/Morel at 3B, and go with Morel/Mervis at 1B, and Tauchman/Canario in CF with PCA also available later in the season. Not the ideal of course and i'd like them to spend more, but that would still bring the Cubs a bit over the CBT line depending on the SP they acquire. The addition of Ohtani would more than make up for the loss of Bellinger's bat.

Well you've mentioned him a lot as a Cubs target this offseason, that's all i mean. I would also very much like the Cubs to have a 280m payroll this season. I don't know how much their payroll will be, but as I've said before I do think strategically it makes sense for them to go over the CBT line the next season or 2 until more prospects graduate to the Cubs fulltime if they want to really compete. Glasnow being on a 1 year deal would benefit the Cubs if they acquire Ohtani because Ohtani can't pitch next year and it would fill that gap. If they signed Ohtani plus another SP (ie. Imanaga) to a longterm deal to replace Stroman then in 2025 and beyond they would have Ohtani, Imanaga, and Taillon on longterm deals while only having 2 spots left for Steele, Horton, Wicks, Brown etc. If they sign Ohtani I could see the Cubs trying to trade for a good SP with 1 year left on their contracts, like Glasnow, Bieber, Burnes etc. So maybe any prospect the Cubs wouldn't really miss would be find to send to the Rays. Apparently the Cubs have inquired about Glasnow and Bieber which makes sense: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cubs-trade-rumors-shane-bieber-guardians-reds.html Only crappy thing is the SP market has been moving fast so far, hopefully the Cubs don't miss out on most of the good arms before an Ohtani deal is decided.

I know you like Glasnow a lot. We have to assume the Cubs will have a payroll limit Ricketts won't go over for 2024 like every year. So in order to build the best team possible for 2024 Hoyer should still be trying to make the best moves that will maximize our number of wins. The only time a team shouldn't care about payroll is if they have an open checkbook from the owner.

His username was Trane, I remember, because he liked the music of John Coltrane.

I'd take him sure, he's really good when not injured, but I wouldn't overpay for him. Why give up a young SP for him when there's numerous quality SP on the FA market that will not cost one of our young pitchers that we'll need this season? If he could throw about 140 IP next season I think he'd be worth the 25m salary because of the quality of his innings, but that would be a career high for him. If the Rays want us to take on his whole salary I'm not giving them anything more than a meh prospect outside our Top 30 we won't miss.

Anyone remember the message board on Cubs.com? That was probably back in the Julio Zuletta/Mark Bellhorn obsession days. I can also remember posting on some other baseball message board back around 2001, and when the 9/11 attacks happened one of the regular posters there worked in the WTC and died in the attacks. I'm not big into Reddit so glad private forums like this still exist even if they've taken a hit in traffic from Reddit and Twitter.

If I were the Cubs i'd definitely want Morel playing mostly 3B this winter with the occasional 1B and middle INF.

Agree. I think how much payroll the Cubs decide to spend to this offseason is more important than which quality players they decide to sign. There's several very good players on the market they can target. They'll all sign for their market value more or less so it doesn't matter a ton which of them we sign as long as they address a need of ours.

I don't think Glasnow is worth his 25m salary he'll make next year so I'd offer some terrible prospect nobody has ever heard of plus probably want them to throw in some money.