Stratos

If it makes you feel any better, a reminder that Jed met with Counsell without anyone knowing and the signing came out of the blue, and the Swanson and Stroman signings had no heat from what I remember until just before they happened. Sounds like Yamamoto won't sign until after the new year, and Imanaga might wait for him. The top 4 non-Japanese FA's left are Bellinger, Snell, Chapman, Montgomery, and they all are Boras clients, so there's no action there either until well into January it seems. Stroman and Hader are left as well, plus a lot of solid bats we've talked about like Hoskins, Garver, Belt etc. There's only like 3 big names off the FA board so far: Ohtani, Nola, and Lee, and seems no other teams had any realistic chance at Ohtani or Nola including Cubs. It's just a slow market this year.

Hader was given a QO. Womp-womp.

Read that he had real problems getting used to the WBC baseball, which is similar to the MLB ball, so maybe teams had some pause there. I get it, it's still a dice roll to sign a player from another league, and he's only a reliever. It's like bringing up a prospect from AAA, but even riskier, you don't know what will happen.

Cubs are a joke if they don't take the division this year. Reds might be annoying this year though.

You could say that about every single prospect ever. At some point you have to take a risk and play a prospect if you want to cash in on the potential surplus they can provide. PCA has a high floor. Even if he doesn't hit that great he's young, fast, and athletic and is going to cover a ton of ground in CF and probably take home some gold gloves.

Enjoyed this article.

Hoskins is a Boras guy, like Chapman and Bellinger, as is Snell. Maybe some others too I'm missing.

True. And I support that philosophy as long as the total payroll spending is an acceptably high amount. Point of my post is that if they were in on Lee then they're at least considering signing a FA to fill CF rather than for sure going with PCA/Tauchman/Canario in 2024. Seems like they want to add at least 1 LHB to the lineup. Happ is the only regular who can hit LH right now.

Maybe the Brewers bribe umps because they like to cheat n stuff lol

30m AAV for Snell is a bit much for a 4 WAR player. He won the Cy Young but isn't exactly a workhorse every year and looks like he got lucky last year quite a bit given the xFIP.

Being a major market team means you have a higher payroll than mid-market and small market teams. That's it. Jed's job is to maximize the # of wins under the payroll he's given by every means possible, which is the same job every FO has regardless of payroll. Why not scratch and claw for every extra win like a good small or mid market team does? If waiting the market out is necessary for Jed to create the best roster possible for 2024 under the budget he's been given then i support it. My guess is Boras is the culprit, not Jed.

Sure both of these points are valid. I do think signing Hoskins to platoon with Mervis vs LHP (along with Wisdom) to see if we can work Mervis in as an everyday guy vs RHP is a good plan. If Mervis can handle RHP duties then we can DH Hoskins. If he can't then Hoskins can play 1B full-time. It may be that Mervis never hits LHP well, but it's way too early to tell. I don't think we should count on prospects becoming good MLB players, but I also think we should give them a fair shake at showing whether they can be or not. We're simply never going to be a great team without significantly more surplus. Having a loaded farm and blocking them all with longterm contracts is insane. The Braves have given young guys a shot and its paid off.

They have Mervis to give more PAs to this year plus Alonso as FA next year. BJ Murray sounds also start this year in AAA. McGeary too, and Bellesteros is in AA this year who also plays some 1B.

I find a better chance they trade for a position player. There's numerous good SP still on the FA market and the position side is weak this year after Ohtani. But signing those guys would be pretty good.

There's a big difference between not "believing" in a prospect and believing he just need more time to cook in the minors. Fans jump to conclusions that the Cubs have "given up" on Mervis, or on Morel when they started him in Iowa last year. Sometimes it's painfully obvious when a guy needs more time in the minors, and those 2 needed it and so does PCA unless the work he did over the winter impresses and he looks good in ST. But like Mervis last year, I don't think they're going to rush him, PCA is still very young, he's 21 y/o and never played college ball.

They probably feel PCA needs more time in AAA, and I think his MLB stint last year shows that. Besides the hitting he made some daft decisions on the bases and in the OF. He's got the physical talents but his baseball IQ isn't there yet IMO. More experience against advanced players in Iowa would be good for him, even if it's for most of the year.

Not sure if this has been posted but just read a tidbit on MLB Trade Rumors that the Cubs were reportedly in on Jung Hoo Lee. Makes a Bellinger signing more likely since they'd likely be in on him too: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/chicago-notes-lee-candelario-pepiot.html

I remember last offseason most Cubs fans wanted one (or 2) of Correa/Turner/Bogaerts, plus Jose Abreu, one of the better FA catchers like Christian Vazquez, and Senga. Can't remember who they wanted in CF, I guess one between Nimmo and Bellinger. Some wanted Conforto. We got Swanson, Mancini/Hosmer, Barnhart, Taillon, and Bellinger. New theory; If most Cubs fans want a player, that means most GM's will likely want him as well, which means they'll probably be over-bid in Jed's eyes, which means we probably won't sign them.

I think a GM's job regarding contracts is to maximize the number of wins per dollar spent, regardless of payroll. I think Jed has been pretty good at that so far. I think in FA he looks at all the good players they're interested in to inquire on, puts a price value on all of them, and usually signs the guy who comes in at the best price per projected value. If Swanson cost over 200m and Turner came in at less years and money than he did he would have signed Turner. I don't see anything wrong with this, every player has a value and a price, there's lots of good players available every winter to sign so I don't typically see a need to overpay for guys. Even top players are just a number on a page like the rest, it's all a math equation. He hasn't been perfect at this. He signed Mancini and arguably Smyly over value and we've all complained about it since the day they were signed. I think there's times he needs to overpay if we have no choice and makes sense from a cost-benefit analysis. He usually buys relievers with the same value-oriented approach, which to an extent is fine, but we went into 2023 with a lack of late-inning relief depth so I think he went too cheap there, and Jed didn't grab us the quality of relievers we clearly needed last trade deadline to get us to the playoffs. I remember Jed mentioning that the cost of relievers at the deadline was too high for them, but an overpay is better than nothing at all and leaving tons of value in the minors while the MLB team flounders a whole season, especially when he's already acquired Candelario. Re: Trading Cubs prospects for established players, I guess that remains to be seen. Some of these guys will need to be moved because they're starting to pile up in Iowa. Maybe he values good prospects more highly than most GM's compared to an established player with 1-3 years of control left?

He's probably speculating though.

First reaction is to agree, but does it really matter if you add a run with the bat or save a run with the glove? When discussing last offseason I remember Hoyer saying that the FO found that defense was undervalued in FA that winter so they leaned that way. Cubs have good prospects at every position. Whoever they get I hope they don't have a NTC.

They're just throwing money at good talent at this point. He's elite when he pitches and that seems like mostly what they care about.

I think it's pretty wild for a guy with his track record. 15-20m AAV plus lots of incentives would make more sense.

What if some of the best loaves of bread go on sale 30 minutes before the store closes because the store manager is kind of an arse and jacks up the price for the rest of the day?

This offseason I expected them to try to replace Bellinger's production by grabbing a corner bat (even if it's Bellinger), landing a SP to replace Stroman, and improving the pen. It's all still on the board. If they want a 95 win team this season they likely have spend well over the CBT which I don't expect them to do. In recent seasons they seem to be trying to be good enough to squeeze into the playoffs until the kids are ready, and the vast majority of their best prospects will be in AAA or AA this year and knocking on the door while providing lots of depth. The Cubs are pretty close. Cubs had a good run differential last year, enough for 90 wins of pythag W/L. If they were able to close out leads for more than half the season they would have easily made the playoffs (AZ had 1 more win than the Cubs). Fixing the pen and signing a couple good players isn't that hard. They just nabbed the best manager in baseball. The team is in good shape.