Rcal10

.Sure, that’s possible. But doesn’t risk come with every long term contract? If you don’t take a few iffy years you don’t get the top guys. As I said, if you don’t think Bellinger is worth it bexsuee of questioning his bat, that is a different story. That I do understand. But I am less worried about him playing center.

I understand being unsure of Bellinger. But why can’t he play center field until he is 35? Didn’t Nimmo sign an 8 year deal at 30? Where is he going to play? Again, concerns about his bat, I do understand. But I don’t know why he can’t stay in center once he hits early to mid 30’s.

I did Blake Dewitt for Dodgers. I thought you did Bellhorn for Yankees. Fanzone was .08. Castro was 2%, I think.

I went Castro. Not the obvious box. For that one I used Carmen Fanzone. Only us guys of a certain age remember him.

Hoskins is not Mancini. Not even close. He is a career OPS+ of 126. That is very good. Only question on Hoskins is health. If he is healthy he will produce.

Add a trade of PCA+ for Luzardo and a FA pen arm and that is not a bad off season. Maybe even enough money to get Giolito on a 2 or 3 year deal. 3rd and DH filled by what they have already (Morel and ?) Another trade option is PCA+ for Clase, Bieber, Naylor. But for that to work the Cubs need to know Morel can play 3rd. And I don’t think they know that.

I do like Naylor though. They can use a lefty bat. If they don’t trade for one, who do they get? Bellinger? And that being along a whole new list of things they may need to do. I think they can still sign Hoskins and wait a bit on Naylor. Might end up a March deal. They might want to see for themselves if Morel can play 3rd. If he can they can trade for Naylor and let him and Hoskins fill 1b and DH. If they already know he can’t maybe he goes in a trade that gets Naylor and they either sign Chapman, stay within what they have or make another trade for a 3rd baseman.. If the decision on him has already been made that he can’t do it, they can move quicker. There is a lot of ways they can go and suddenly time is getting shorter. There is time still, but they have a lot of avenues to explore.

I just think if you are taking Moncada and his contract, with Cease there is no reason to have to put Morel in the deal. I also do not think Moncada is any good, TBH. I see him as average, at best, offensively. And definitely not worth his contract. I also am not as high in Cease as some are. I think that had he not been traded from the Cubs to the Sox people wouldn’t be as interested in getting him back. Sure, he throws hard. Cubs don’t really have that sort of guy. But he walks a lot of guys and usually it around his pitch limit in the 6th inning. He is good, but not worth what some are suggesting IMO. I mean if you look at pure numbers he isn’t even better than Bieber, and we are talking about getting him for Wesneski. So why pay so much for Cease for one additional year. Look at his WHIP last year. That was not good. Even his career number isn’t good. I am not interested in overpaying for him just to right a perceived wrong(by the Cubs fan base).

Are you saying PCA AND Morel and than something else? Or PCA or Morel? If it is the former IMO you are overvaluing Cease by a wide margin. I wouldn’t trade PCA for Cease. The guy is a 5 or 6 inning pitcher who throws 100 pitches in those innings. Maybe instead of Triantos or Wesneski I would give Wicks. So Alcantara, Wicks and either Triantos or Wesneski. If that isn’t good enough I don’t want Cease.

In the 7 years Moncada has been in the league he has had one really good year. He had one other year that he would probably be worth his contract. But 4 years where his offense was under league average and another he was 3% above league average. He is nothing special. His production doesn’t merit his pay so he is a negative value. I think the Sox wouldn’t mind shedding his salary. I certainly wouldn’t give anything of any value to the Sox for him in a straight deal to get Moncada.

Taking Moncada back isn’t adding offense. It is adding a negative value player and a contract he isn’t worth. I would give up Alcantara instead of Morel with the guys you mentioned and it would still be an overpay. But one I would do, and probably what would be needed because I do agree with you that in order to deal minor league talent for major league talent they will have to overpay to be the best deal. Obviously we know none of this will happen. Just nice to have a baseball chat once in a while. Man, something does need to happen soon!!!!

They need offense. Don’t want to give up Morel. Wouldn’t give up PCA for Cease either. If the Cubs did sign Bellinger again, I wouldn’t mind seeing PCA for Luzardo or PCA being the main piece in a deal for Gilbert. I don’t think I would touch Horton either, except for Gilbert. They should be able to get Cease without any of those 3. If they have to they can take Moncada to lessen the prospect capital they would need to trade.

Wish he was the Sox GM.

Me too, but I think Luzardo would cost more prospect capital.

That is a weak argument though. I mean tell me the last time the Dodgers signed a pitcher for 12 years before a few days ago. When was the last time anyone paid a $700M before Ohtani signed. Since Jed has been in charge what prospects did he really have to bring back someone of Cease’s ability. Also, why would he have done that previously? Ins weren’t not looking to compete. They were looking to build. So why trade prospects for proven talent? I do have my doubts that this particular idea will result in anything. But not because he hasn’t done something like this yet. I just think it is hard for 2 teams to agree on values. Maybe Jed is overvaluing the Cubs prospects too. But I don’t think he is afraid to make a deal and past years have nothing to do with now, IMO.

Agreed. And I am not so sure he is available.

When you plug guys into BBTV, which several guys have referenced here, to determine if trade values are equal, it looks like Cease should cost something like Brown, Wicks and Alcantara. And if the Sox wanted to move Moncada and his salary, he is actually negative value. That sort of deal would work for just Alcantara and Wicks. I know that site isn’t something that should be used to make up deals, but I would think it shouldn’t be that far off. I would do a deal with or without Moncada.

I don’t want to lose Morel, PCA or Horton. If they can put something together without those 3 I am good with Cease. Does Wicks, Brown and Alcantara get it done. Do they need to add another guy. Not top 10 guy. If Moncada is added, I think those 3 are more than enough. .

This is kind of my views. Sure, most free agents signed eventually end their careers hindering the team they are on for the last year or two of a deal. Sure, guys being traded shouldn’t cost as much as some do, but in order to get the players you want you have to overpay. My fear is Jed will stick to his beliefs and therefore not get much done. Just look at the couple of trades so far. Soto cost more than people thought. So did Glasnow when you realize they also took on another salary for a 4th outfielder. I agree with what people are suggesting the Cubs should trade to get guys. I know it sounds right. But I am not sure it is. Which may be why Jed hasn’t made a deal yet. As far as free agents go I am not comfortable with giving any of the top 3 a 6yr $150+ deal. And maybe Jed isn’t either. But someone will. So the Cubs don’t get any of those guys. I don’t want to give Bellinger any more than something like 6/$150-$160, or Chapman 4/$92M. But again, if Jed doesn’t someone else will. If this FO sticks to what a guy is really worth and won’t sign him for more than that, they won’t sign many. If they stick to only trading equal value of young talent for a proven talent they won’t make many trades. We can all say good for them to not overpay. But what we will be watching this year is a high 70’s to low 80’s win team unless they extend beyond their comfort to acquire additional talent.

I would stick to the first guys you mentioned. Don’t think I would do Brown. The problem is I think someone will give more. I have said this before, but in mlb trade rumor the question was asked. Morel+ Brown and someone else(maybe Canario) for Alonso, who says no? The response was the Mets. The thought being they can get more. I think what you offered is fair. But is it because we are both Cubs fans? Or is the guy doing the mlb chat just nuts or very east coast biased?

What would you be willing to give for 1 year of Alonso?

It isn’t so much how many years I would go or even how many Jed is comfortable going. It is what would be needed for Bellinger. I think if you could get him for 7/$182 AND they did plan on dealing PCA to upgrade elsewhere, this is something I would consider. Yes, might be a few years more than is comfortable, but just trying to be realistic with what the market might be for him.

Solid recap. We just don’t know what the Cubs are comfortable spending, how much minor league talent they are willing to part with and who they are truly interested in. There are all kinds of scenarios that could give the Cubs the best team in the central. I think the least likely is the trade for a high end pitcher with some years of control left. I think that cost too much prospect capital, unless they sign Bellinger and use PCA. A guy like Luzardo, Valdez or Cease is going to be expensive!

Maybe, maybe not. But what does that have to do with upgrading 3rd base? Are you suggesting not getting Chapman? That is fine, but say that. They could just roll those guys out there instead. Maybe then they do spend more elsewhere. Maybe Imanaga or Montgomery are an option. Maybe they go pitching heavy. That is ok too. I only posted what I think they will do. Not the only thing they can do. Personally I don’t like Wisdom much. And for me they need more pop at 3rd than Madrigal. Chapman is by far, not the ideal guy. But he is a 20 homer guy who plays great defense. I think, because he isn’t a perfect fit for the Cubs people undervalue him here.