Matthew Trueblood

"Presumably, the front office is not consciously working to build heavily white rosters, or to make their core of highly-paid stars predominantly white. Nonetheless, they have no person of color from North America set to make more than $1 million in 2025. They've traded two Black players who were already emerging as top prospects (Zyhir Hope and Cam Smith) in successive winters. Those trades brought back excellent players who can better help the Cubs in the short term, in Michael Busch and Kyle Tucker, and no one should argue that the team was wrong to make those deals just because those players are white and the centerpieces of the packages they sent out were not." It's all there for you, man. Just gotta read it all.

It's something we should all want to see the team change. Alas, the Cubs are far from alone in this regard, in a game with a rich history of cultural exchange but an uncertain future. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images When the Cubs signed Justin Turner earlier this month, they designated outfielder Alexander Canario for assignment. It was a natural choice, given that Canario was already pinched by the roster crunch the team faced after earlier moves to add Jon Berti, Gage Workman, and Vidal Bruján to their mix of bench options. Still, it was notable, because the swap of Canario—a Black native of the Dominican Republic—for Turner, who is white, reduced the number of non-white players on the Cubs' 40-man roster to seven. Of the current 40, 32 are American-born, and only one person of color from the United States (reliever Tyson Miller) is in line to make the Opening Day roster. As Black History Month draws to a close, it's jarring to note that while the Cubs are unusually white, they are far from an outlier. Baseball draws as heavily as ever on international talent, especially as the flow of talented, accomplished pros from South Korea and Japan to the United States grows more robust, but despite the annual lip service the league pays to reaching out to people of color in the domestic pool of young talent, Black participation has not rebounded from the long slump into which it fell roughly 20 years ago. In 2023, just over 6% of the players on Opening Day rosters were Black. For the purposes of that survey, Black and Latino identities seemed to be held separate, when the reality is that many players from the Caribbean identify as Black, as well as Latino. Still, the league continues to fail in whatever efforts it's made to court African-American fans and find or empower African-American players, and the Cubs are among the worst in that regard. Like the country of which it is such a proud part, MLB has a long history of structural racism, including formal and informal segregation; clubhouse cliques, often drawn along racial lines; and layers of tension, based not only on the construct of race but on colorism, language, ethnicity, and even geographic background. Untold numbers of players, including not just long-forgotten ones but several still playing right now, have shared stories of abuse, alienation, or discrimination, by clubs, fans, opponents, teammates, and others. However, beginning even before Jackie Robinson and the abolition of the color line, the game has also long been a place where racial progress was won and barriers were challenged and (sometimes) torn down. Robinson's emergence with the Brooklyn Dodgers was one of the first landmark victories and galvanizing moments of the post-World War II Civil Rights movement. That some major progress made in the 50 years after Robinson's debut has since eroded, with the game growing whiter even as it leans more heavily on international talent and needs to reach more diverse a more diverse prospective fan base, is deeply worrisome. The Cubs are becoming the face of this problem, to the limited extent to which it's being recognized and discussed. It's not just that they have few players of color, but that of those they do have, the majority are role players or likely minor-leaguers. If Workman wins the bench spot over Bruján, they could be down to just six players of color on the 40-man, and of those, Miller, Daniel Palencia, and Miguel Amaya will all be in something less than a full-time, high-volume role. The only non-white stars on the team are Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga. Presumably, the front office is not consciously working to build heavily white rosters, or to make their core of highly-paid stars predominantly white. Nonetheless, they have no person of color from North America set to make more than $1 million in 2025. They've traded two Black players who were already emerging as top prospects (Zyhir Hope and Cam Smith) in successive winters. Those trades brought back excellent players who can better help the Cubs in the short term, in Michael Busch and Kyle Tucker, and no one should argue that the team was wrong to make those deals just because those players are white and the centerpieces of the packages they sent out were not. However, Smith is one of just two players of color the team has taken in the first round since 2013. The other, Ed Howard, has fizzled in the Chicago farm system. They've struggled to develop their top international free agent signees (nearly all of whom are people of color) from promising talents into genuine contributors. While there's no evidence of systemic prejudice in the Cubs operation (at least beyond that which seems to be much too powerful in the sport as a whole), they unequivocally need to do better when it comes to acquiring and developing star-caliber players who aren't white Americans. Sammy Sosa is a fascinating character to see back in Cubs camp, at a moment when this trend is emerging for the franchise. His own relationship with the media was always tinged by his race and nationality, and while he's responsible for many of his own choices over the years, he left the sport feeling so exposed to the friction and frustration of racism that he underwent treatments designed to lighten his own skin tone. Sosa wore No. 21 during his time with the Cubs in honor of Roberto Clemente, the Black Puerto Rican hero of so many mid-century players and fans of all races. Clemente, too, felt deeply mistreated and disrespected by local and national baseball media, and by many fans, even at the peak of his great fame and widespread adulation. Racism has always been a part of baseball, even as Black players and the cultures of the sport in the Caribbean, Mexico, and the Pacific Rim have been vital to its growth and survival. The Cubs can't instantly fix this troubling trend toward whiteness, even within their own clubhouse—let alone throughout the league. Nonetheless, the team photo this spring will be a good opportunity for everyone to reflect on the need for both local and widespread change, to make the game more accessible and appealing to a broader swath of a very diverse, global fan base. View full article

Show me a billionaire who doesn't like a tax loophole, and I'll show you a liar. Show me one who uses their windfall to spread wealth or joy, and I'll show you a con man. Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Remember back in mid-September, when the Cubs announced an increase in season-ticket prices for 2025? It got plenty of attention at the time, because the team was then wrapping up a second straight disappointing 83-win season and because they hadn't made the playoffs (in a real way, playing more than one postseason game after a full season of games) since 2017. The team's rejoinder, though, was that they had to make up for lost revenue from the two games they won't get to host at Wrigley Field in 2025. Because they'll be the home team for both contests against the Dodgers in Tokyo next month, the Cubs will only play 79 regular-season contests at the Friendly Confines this season. That was the talking point the team used to justify the increase in per-game prices; season ticket-holders were just having their investments spread over fewer dates. No one really bought that at the time, but let's specifically debunk the idea for good, now. The Cubs aren't losing any revenue as a result of playing in these games. In fact, they come out ahead, even before they dig deeper into the pockets of customers for the balance of their games. Here's the language from the current collective bargaining agreement about how the league will handle revenue lost via games played outside the United States as parts of showcases like this one: In other words, since the Cubs are the home game for both teams, they will get a replacement check from the Commissioner's Office that matches their typical revenue for two home games—and, that (small, but not insignificant) slice of their revenue pie will not be counted toward their shareable revenue, so they get to keep it all. Normally, they'd have to pay 48% of that money into the league's revenue-sharing pool, less the amount they would stand to get back as the league redistributes its pooled funds evenly throughout the league. This is a major financial break for the Cubs, but the Ricketts family didn't pass along any of the projected increase in profits. They haven't spent nearly enough money this winter, full stop. No, this is not about Cody Bellinger, whose play and continued struggles to stay healthy made him a poor fit for the 2025 Cubs, anyway. The Cubs said they would reinvest the $25 million they saved when they dealt Bellinger to the Yankees, and they have. Since that trade, they've spent: $8.5 million on Ryan Pressly $5.75 million on Carson Kelly $6 million on Justin Turner $5 million on Colin Rea $3 million on Jon Berti $2.75 million on Caleb Thielbar That's $31 million, and it'll end up being more, as some of those guys hit certain incentives and some minor-league signees make the team and earn small but non-zero amounts of money above the league minimum. Still, right now, the team only has a projected 40-man payroll of $192.9 million and a CBT number of roughly $213 million. In their defense, they did try fairly hard to spend more than that. We know they made offers to Tanner Scott and Alex Bregman that significantly exceeded the net present value of the deals they actually signed. They had at least two trades die at the medical review stage this winter, each of which would have increased their payroll for 2025. They might yet spend a bit more, for seasons beyond this one, by extending one of their young players and securing longer-term control of them at a good price. Depending on the shape of any such spring extension, maybe we'll find their budget justifiable by Opening Day. Right now, though, the team's payroll is not bumping up at all against the competitive-balance tax threshold or sitting anywhere close to their real spending from 2024. Those two things should not be true, given not only the huge revenues they collected even during a disappointing season, but the fact that they'll get a nice little tax-free payday this year to further bolster their income for 2025. Ownership continues to privatize profits and socialize losses for their customers, the fans. View full article

And would absolutely do so. Don't think of farming either of them out as a viable possibility; it isn't one.

Hodge is a lock, for me. But with Pressly and Brasier in town now, I don't think Pearson *is* in line for that same role, right away. That could change, of course, but he'll have to pitch his way into a high-leverage job by establishing consistency in command and release points.

Yeah, Wicks will be in the I-Cubs rotation, barring injuries (plural).

The roster crunch is on in Cubs camp, but it's only affecting one half of the team. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images It's beginning to feel inevitable that the Cubs will lose someone they really like from the pitching staff by the end of camp. They'll do everything they can to cultivate and maintain depth, because injuries will intrude, and being able to pivot to desirable fallback plans depends on having held on to as many such hurlers as possible. Right now, though, they have 11 pitchers who look likely to start the season healthy and are locks to make the roster if they do: Starting Rotation: Justin Steele Shota Imanaga Jameson Taillon Matthew Boyd Colin Rea Bullpen Ryan Pressly Porter Hodge Ryan Brasier Caleb Thielbar Julian Merryweather Tyson Miller That only leaves two open slots, although the roster rules surrounding the team's trip to Tokyo to open the regular season will give them a few weeks to fudge it and hold onto as many as five candidates for those jobs. Even if we assume that Javier Assad will begin the year on the injured list and be handled carefully while he nurses an oblique strain, the list of pitchers trying to make a claim on those two jobs is almost 20 players long. Keegan Thompson Brad Keller Phil Bickford Ben Brown Cody Poteet Nate Pearson Eli Morgan Luke Little Daniel Palencia Jack Neely Caleb Kilian Ethan Roberts Gavin Hollowell Ben Heller Brooks Kriske Trevor Richards Brandon Hughes A few weeks ago, I would have said Pearson and Morgan were virtual locks to make the team, and neither has really done anything to hurt their stock this spring. It's just that, for instance, Keller showed up pumping 96 snd touching 98 with his fastball, and the Cubs can't keep him if they don't add him to the team right away. The same will be true for Thompson or Bickford, so the team will have to give them at least some small tiebreaker if everyone keeps pitching well—and that's mostly what's happened, over the first six games of Cactus League play. There's some chance Thompson would clear waivers, so he might be the one the team tries to sneak through if it comes to that. The Much Less Heated Competition to Be Bench Player No. 4 Tuesday was a good day for Vidal Bruján, who turned on a ball and crushed a no-doubt game-tying home run in the fifth inning. The slightly Sammy Sosa-esque hop and skip out of the batter's box is a nice touch, since Bruján was seen on camera talking to Sosa in the dugout before the long ball. It's a strange but wonderful thing, seeing Sosa in that setting already, giving tips aplenty to hitters between at-bats, and while not even he is going to turn Bruján into a true slugger, there might be something important to unlock here. In 551 swings tracked by Statcast since the middle of 2023, Bruján only has one that exceeded 76.1 miles per hour of bat speed—one, and, not really. That one seems to have been misread, because it's 6 mph faster than his max otherwise and it doesn't look anything like that on video. Having one of the lowest average swing speeds in the majors is one thing. Not even being able (or willing?) to cut it loose and get to the dangerous bands of swing speed when the situation dictates it is quite another. Compare Bruján to Sal Frelick and Brice Turang, of the Brewers—two of the game's slower swingers, on average, each slower than Bruján by a bit—and you can see the difference. Bruján might simply be short on the strength or athletic explosiveness required to swing any faster than he has, but given his former prospect sheen and his age, that feels unlikely. If (whether through a rejiggered offseason regimen, training and instruction from the Cubs, or one magical conversation with Sosa) he can tap into even that slice of Turang's and Frelick's bat speed that exists out to the right end of his current distribution, his value proposition changes in a hurry. We don't have Statcast data for the homer Tuesday, but whenever Bruján plays in Statcast-covered games, watch his bat speeds. It looks like he's found some. Gage Workman is Bruján's competition for the final bench spot, though they could both start the season on the roster now that Matt Shaw's oblique has created some uncertainty about him for the early going. He's flashed plenty of tools already, but it was a subtler skill that stood out Tuesday. Workman stayed back nicely on an offspeed 1-2 pitch and pulled a sharp grounder through the hole between the second baseman and the bag. With his frame, his recent performance record (he slugged .550 after Jul. 1 last season) and the little we've already seen this spring, it's safe to say that he'll hit for power—if he hits at all. Because he's run big, scary strikeout numbers in the minors, the big, scary question for him centers much more on the hit tool. That single was a neat demonstration of his ability to adjust and adapt. He muddied the signal a bit, shortly afterward, by getting an atrocious jump and being caught stealing, but it was just one attempt. It seems as though either Bruján or Workman would be the best defensive third baseman on the roster, should they make it, and both should be able to accumulate some steals. Workman has to prove he can make enough contact to consistently get on base. Bruján has to prove he can generate some power. In that regard, each player had a very good game Tuesday. Owen Caissie's Effect on the Cubs Offseason Shaw's injury has eased whatever degree of logjam the team faced when camp started. Even before that, another injury (or two?) had a major effect moving in the same direction. A few days ago, I wrote about the team bringing Travis Jankowski and Greg Allen to camp, and about how they were replacing Owen Caissie, more than truly vying for the backup job to Pete Crow-Armstrong. Caissie is still not close to starting competitive action, as he deals with a groin strain. Belatedly, we learned that Caissie had core surgery in the early stages of the offseason. Multiple league sources confirmed to North Side Baseball that Caissie's medicals killed "at least one" significant trade for the Cubs this winter, so the effect of that ill-timed injury has had a profound effect on the organization. Not only did the team not accomplish the trade in which they were prepared to send out Caissie, but (to whatever extent their own confidence in his ability to recover and reach his ceiling) they had a tougher decision on their hands whenever potential suitors asked about Kevin Alcántara. The 2025 Cubs would look somewhat different—and perhaps have people meaningfully more excited, even if the extra improvement came at a long-term cost—if Caissie were fully healthy, or even had a currently encouraging prognosis. His health will be worth tracking for the next few months, no matter what, but right now, it's almost inarguable that Alcántara has surpassed him as a likely long-term outfield piece for the team—for good reasons, and bad ones. View full article

At some point, the calendar math just doesn't work. We're getting very near that point for the Cubs' top prospect—if we aren't already there. Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK Matt Shaw continues his recovery process from a mild oblique strain that sidelined him before Cactus League games could even begin. He's hitting in the cage and doing "normal" defensive drills, the team shared Tuesday. By no means is his arrival in the team's lineup for live spring training games imminent, though, and with less than three weeks left until the club leaves for Japan and their season-opening two-game series with the Dodgers in Tokyo, the writing is on the wall: Shaw won't be the Cubs' Opening Day third baseman. Bizarre, complicated roster rules govern international play at the front end of a season, so the Cubs could still plan for Shaw to be in the lineup when they play their first Stateside regular-season game, Mar. 27. Holding off on activating him will even come with multiple advantages. Shaw isn't on the 40-man roster yet, so he can be reassigned to minor-league camp without any real effect. Recalling him later (be that at the end of March, or in the middle of April) wouldn't cost them anything. In fact, because the team can still have 29 players in big-league camp when they start their season (not counting guys who begin the year on the major-league injured list, as Javier Assad is likely to do, for instance), not adding Shaw will buy them all the time they would otherwise have had to decide between Vidal Bruján and Gage Workman for the final spot on the bench. A New Dilemma At a certain point we certainly have not reached quite yet, the Cubs will have to consider just sending Shaw to Triple-A Iowa to begin the season—not to manipulate his service time, exactly, but because his untimely injury makes it so hard to tell how soon they could expect him to perform at full strength. There's still time for Shaw to avoid that fate, but the decision is more real now than it felt a few weeks ago. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the Cubs can get a compensatory draft pick if they allow Shaw to accrue a full year of service time in 2025, and then he proceeds to win the Rookie of the Year or place highly in the voting for that award or the MVP within three years. That rule is meant to dissuade teams from cravenly stashing top prospects for the first fortnight of a season to extend their team control over the player by a year, but it's a speculative sort of incentive, and the benefit of withholding the player's debut is still very concrete. Shaw's age-29 season in 2031 has plenty of value, and the team can secure it quite easily from here. The possibility of an extra draft pick somewhere in the 2026-28 window is obviously preferable, if they believe it's coming, because that would both represent an earlier payoff for the decision and mean that Shaw had panned out nicely. Until we see him on the field and he demonstrates his restored health by handling some high-quality pitchers well, though, it's hard to feel confident that that payoff is forthcoming. Meanwhile, controlling Shaw through 2031 is guaranteed, if he's in Des Moines come Tax Day. Again, the injury is almost a blessing in disguise. The Cubs don't have to decide on this until at least Mar. 27, and really, it could be when they open their home schedule, Apr. 4 against the Padres. If he's with them by then, he'll still qualify for a prospect promotion incentive (PPI) pick, and the Cubs will have bought a bunch of time to decide between Bruján and Workman. They just didn't want to have to grapple with this particular question. View full article

The burly veteran righthander came to camp on a minor-league deal, but he has looked like an unquestionably big-league arm in his first two Cactus League appearances. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images If you were disposed to skepticism, you might not have bought into the velocity readings Brad Keller put up in his first appearance of spring training, last week against the Dodgers in Glendale, Ariz. He sat at 96 miles per hour and touched 98 in a five-out appearance, which represented a bump of more than 2 mph from his average in 2024. Even knowing that he'd spent a chunk of his offseason at training and development hub Maven Baseball Lab, that was such a surge that it seemed a bit incredible. In his second outing, though, Keller did more or less the exact same thing, so now, we need to have a different conversation. He was perfect in two innings against the Padres, with one strikeout, but the most noteworthy thing was that his fastball stayed right at that same level. Two Statcast systems in a row can't be wrong. Keller is really, truly throwing harder five months shy of his 30th birthday than he ever has before: I broke things down by month, just to be sure, but Keller's velocity so far in spring camp would be the highest of any period even that long in his career, let alone a season. Since he was clearly active this winter learning how to generate this velocity, it's a safe bet that: He'll gain less velocity than other pitchers might in the time between late February and late March, let alone between February and June; and He'll either run out of steam altogether long before October, or need to be shelved for a while on the injured list, in what the modern argot terms a "de-load" phase. It's not yet popular to think that way, but we're right around the corner from it. The baseball season has stretched until it lasts from Valentine's Day to Halloween, and with the Cubs going to Tokyo to open the regular season in mid-March this year, they're getting an even earlier start than most. That means that all teams—and especially the Cubs—need to keep in mind the almost inevitable need for a shift change in their pitching staff sometime during the summer, even as they amass enough depth to be strong over the first two months of the season. Last year, they missed the playoffs largely because they got the former right, but had already fallen too far behind because of their failure to do the latter. Keller has an opt-out at the end of spring training, a team source confirmed, so if he doesn't make the team, the Cubs will lose him to free agency. They shouldn't let that happen. As I wrote back in November when I tabbed Keller as a good target for the team on this kind of deal, Keller has the unique, cutterish fastball shape the Cubs prize; that's why Brooks Baseball now codes his heater as a cutter. At 93 or 94, that pitch works reasonably well, given good location. At 96, he's throwing something very much like Porter Hodge's fastball; it's an overpowering offering. Keller already had a solid slider, and it will only play up when it's humming in at 87-88 mph, as it has so far this spring. His sinker has generally been hit hard, but the extra couple of ticks help it, too. His profile levels up with this bump, in a way not every pitcher's can. Keller should be penciled in as the long man for the Cubs' bullpen to start the season. Javier Assad is virtually sure to start the campaign on the injured list with an oblique strain, even though he seems to have come through it without much disruption. That's fine. Ben Brown, Cody Poteet, and other candidates for similar roles can all start the season at Triple-A Iowa without missing a beat. So far, Brown's velocity is down a tick from where he was last year, anyway. Again, that's only to be expected; he's coming back from an injury. Since not rostering Keller would mean losing him, though, and since there's so little to lose by managing and restricting usage for younger pitchers early on, it's a no-brainer. The hard-throwing version of Keller still doesn't have a Hodge-like breaking pitch to set everything off, but he can throw strikes and limit opponents' quality of contact more than well enough to give the Cubs great work through the cold, pitcher-friendly early segment of the season at Wrigley Field. He's not destined to be part of this team if they make a run in the postseason, but (despite and because of that) he should be in their plans for Opening Day. It's the logical way to piece together a good pitching staff for the whole of an overlong season. View full article

The veteran fourth starter is healthy and hoping to enter this season with a full head of steam. His first Cactus League outing was an eye-opening one, for those watching his Statcast readout. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images In two scoreless innings of work Monday in Arizona, Matthew Boyd struck out two and sat just over 92 miles per hour with his fastball, which is what that pitch averaged in 2024. It was an excellent first outing in that regard for Boyd, 34, who signed a two-year deal in the fall worth $29 million. Even more interesting than the early heat on that four-seamer, though, was a change to the pitch that has been Boyd's signature for much of his career—perhaps in response to the fact that it wasn't his best weapon last year. Here's a visualization of Boyd's pitch movement in a fairly typical start from 2024, on Sept. 6 against the Dodgers. As is his wont, Boyd utilized a four-seamer with average ride but more armside run than most such offerings; a diving changeup, including a variant with a bit of relative cut to it; and a big, roundhouse kind of slider, not quite a sweeper (it has too much depth for that), but not at all a hard, gyro-style offering. It averaged just under 80 mph last season, making an ample contrast with the low-90s heat because of the huge difference in the movement of the two pitches. Boyd was very good that day, and he had a strong season overall. He even carried over that excellence into October. When he took the mound against the Padres in Peoria, Ariz. on Monday, though, things looked different. Without a noticeable change in arm angle (the caveat here being that spring training camera angles are a nightmare), Boyd found a touch more ride on his four-seamer, and his curveball became a huge, bending thing that figures to really lock up opposing batters. By far the easiest difference to spot, however, is that slider. This version is an almost perfect gyro slider. Not pictured is the velocity difference: Boyd sat north of 83 miles per hour with the slider Monday. The old version of Boyd's slider was working just fine. He did reduce his usage of it against righties last season, though, favoring his changeup instead. That change will still be a vital part of his repertoire, but with this version of the slider in the mix, he could theoretically attack righties more aggressively with four different pitches. Now, let's not get carried away. Boyd threw exactly four of these Monday. It's possible (though highly unlikely) that he simply couldn't find the usual depth and sweep of his bigger, slower slider. It's possible (and much, much more likely) that he was tinkering with something he might never bring into a game that counts. Monday was an interesting glimpse of another club he could add to his bag, though. A version of Boyd who could throw that slider and his usual one, for instance, might be especially lethal—if it could be done without the pitches blending together and getting worse, which is always a tough tightrope to walk. Little though they sometimes mean, early indicators of possible changes to a player's skill set or approach are one of the most interesting aspects of spring training. Boyd showed a willingness to try something new Monday, and it might turn out to be an important development for him down the road. If it turns out to be something he's especially committed to, it will be doubly fascinating, since it would represent a wholesale change to a pitch that has facilitated a highly accomplished career. View full article

The Cubs' superstar outfielder is in line for a huge payday after this season. But is it as huge as has been casually claimed? Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images When Juan Soto signed an eye-popping 15-year, $765-million contract with the New York Mets in December, it seemed to confirm what many had already begun to assume about salaries at the top end of the free-agent market in MLB: that there's almost no ceiling, and that a superstar's floor is quickly pushing toward $400 million. It altered all the conversations around players set to hit free agency at anywhere near that talent level, including Kyle Tucker, who will hit that market this fall. The sheer mass of that deal—the gravity of it, as an anchor in negotiations around players like these—is enormous. Length is one thing, but Soto got $51 million per year, which becomes a new touchstone for stars trying to achieve the highest salary possible. In an information environment already a bit polluted by confusion around Shohei Ohtani's heavily deferred 10-year deal from last winter, the Soto payday fell like a boulder into a pond. Now that the ripples have smoothed, though, we can see that the entry of that boulder has not fundamentally changed the pond, and the degree to which it raised the water level is so small as to be imperceptible—unless you're hunting for it, hungry-eyed, in which case you're likely to see even what isn't there. In the run-up to Soto's free agency, there was plenty of talk about what makes him so exceptional, and why he got this much money, but too many people failed to take it all to heart. Here's the thing: Juan Soto is not worth $51 million per year for the next 15 years. That's true however you read it: He's not worth a total of $765 million; and He's not going to be worth a steady $51 million annually over the life of the deal. That's not at all to denigrate Soto, but it's important to understand it. What happened was this: An elite free agent at a uniquely young age hit the market at precisely the right moment. He's the best free agent of his age since Alex Rodriguez—better and more consistent than Bryce Harper, even if he hasn't won an MVP the way Harper did before getting to the market. He was coming off a season with one of the three richest teams in baseball, having just helped them to their first World Series in 15 years—which they didn't even win, leaving ownership hungry for more. He also stepped right into the gaze of the richest team in the league, funded by an extraordinarily wealthy owner in the same market. Those were the ingredients for an irrational bidding war, and that's exactly what developed. So, even more than most desirable free agents, Soto got more than his sterling performance record and age really dictated. Whereas a superstar with a robust market in a good winter might typically expect to get one extra year and $3 million more per year than is rational, Soto got, perhaps, three extra years and $6 million more per year. Instead of getting something like $50 million as a superstar premium over the life of a deal, he got anywhere from $150 million to $250 million. That was, yes, because of the market dynamics named there, but let's also tackle the age thing. Soto won't be overpaid at the front end of this deal. In fact, he'll be underpaid. Given his projected production (since he's unlikely to even start to decline until Year 4 of this deal); the Mets' market and its potential; and the novelty of a star joining a team for the long haul, selling jerseys and season tickets left and right, Soto will be worth a solid $100 million per year to his new club from 2025 through 2027. That's how astronomically valuable getting a guy like this at 26 (instead of, say, 29) is. Soto will lose value starting somewhere between 2028 and 2030, but over the very long life of this deal, so will the dollar. Inflation comes into play all the time in these conversations, not just when there are technically deferrals in a deal. If you think of the even structure of the deal as a gentle deferral, then, and of Soto's first three years as being worth $300 million by themselves, it makes sense to think of his market value from age 29 on as 12 years, $450 million. That's only $37.5 million per year. That's the right place to start talking about Kyle Tucker's market value for 2026 and beyond. If he has a very strong season this year (I roughed out one in which he hits .285/.377/.529 in a full season of plate appearances, with 30 homers), he'll hit the market with a career .277/.355/.519 career slash line. That's tremendous, but it's certainly not on par with Soto, Harper, or Prince Fielder, the only other hitters of this caliber to hit free agency before 30 since 2010. He's a balanced lefty slugger and a better defender than Soto, but we saw him slow down significantly over his final two years with Houston; he doesn't project to be a valuable fielder even over the first half of whatever new deal he signs next winter. We suffer from a lack of direct comps for Tucker, because players generally like him (Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts) have tended to sign extensions, usually long before they could have become free agents. He's as good as most of those guys, unless you focus on one of those players' very best seasons and acknowledge that no campaign from Tucker can match it, but they all took at least a little less (and all but Betts and Yelich took considerably less) than they were worth to avoid the risks associated with going all the way to free agency. The guys roughly like him who did go to free agency were so much younger that they can't be compared to him, because those three years of age gap make an enormous difference and they're also (if only marginally) better than Tucker. It will sound shockingly low, because of Soto's and Ohtani's deals, but I expect the net present value of the deal Tucker signs to cover 2026 and beyond to be under $400 million. Ten years and $380 million is a good benchmark. If he goes elsewhere, he'll probably get some deferrals and the vanity of a deal worth more than $400 million. If he stays with the Cubs, it will be right around that number. The bad news for the Cubs is that there's probably no discount available. This is one place where I'm compelled to accuse the players of being a little bit irrational. Lately, superstars (and even stars, just pretending at super) don't seem to be mentally accounting for the risk of waiting and going all the way to market properly. We saw that most vividly with the Pete Alonso situation this winter, but Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant were in the same boat several years ago. Neither maximized their career earnings, precisely because they assumed the best way to do so was to go to free agency (in Rizzo's case, at the end of an initial extension, but it comes to the same thing) and they were very wrong. No numbers have emerged, yet, from the negotiations between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays, and he's a bit more within his rights to roll the dice, since he's going to be another exceptionally young free agent, but I suspect he, too, erred by not taking the deal. I doubt Tucker would sign for 10 years and $380 million (or even a bit more, to bring the total commitment from the Cubs for 2025-2035 up to $400 million) today, but he probably should. Only a truly transcendent season would push him into the stratosphere some are already imagining him to be in, and a bad or injury-marred one could cost him $75 million or so. If the Cubs don't make the offer, they'll never know, and they probably won't make the offer. Should they do so, though, Tucker should take the money. His ceiling and his floor are both lower than they seem, because despite the warm afterglow of that Soto deal, the market is not going to get as rabid about Tucker—especially now that Guerrero looks likely to be there with him. View full article

The Cubs signed two speedy, light-hitting outfielders to minor-league deals late this week, and brought them to big-league camp. They cushion the blow of some rough recent injury news, but can they do any more than that? Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images The Cubs signed outfielders Greg Allen and Travis Jankowski to minor-league deals Friday, and both players are reporting to big-league camp. Both are 30-something guys with very little power and ample speed. Jankowski, who will turn 34 in June, hit an appalling .200/.266/.242 in 2024 and became a non-entity for the not-so-defending champion Rangers. For his career, however, he's a more palatable .236/.319/.305 hitter, getting most of his value from good outfield defense and baserunning. Every two or three years, he's been a useful hitter with a plus OBP, even if it still comes with virtually no power. Allen, who will turn 32 in March, didn't even play in the majors last year. He's batted .231/.300/.340 for his career, in less than half as much playing time as Jankowski has scraped together, but other than that bit more power and less plate discipline, he's largely the same player. Both guys have lots of baserunning utility. Jankowski has 30 steals and has been caught just twice since the start of 2023, while Allen has 43 swipes in 47 tries—but with almost all of those coming in the minors. The two might look vaguely like candidates to back up Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field, but in fact, they've each spent most of their big-league time the last few years in corner spots (most often left). Neither has any real value in that spot in the majors, except as emergency backups. Surely, the reasons why each of them were willing to sign with the Cubs had to do with the lack of an obvious backup to Crow-Armstrong out there, but the reasons why the Cubs wanted them seem a bit less encouraging. Outfielder Owen Caissie will be shut down for a little while yet, as he deals with a groin strain. After Caissie underwent core surgery last October, his trade value was dinged all offseason, constraining the Cubs at times as they sought trade avenues to upgrade their prospective 2025 roster. If the opt-outs in Jankowski and Allen's deals aren't too early for it, they probably figure to start in the outfield in Iowa this spring, trying to establish position and be ready should the team need a replacement for multiple outfielders at once. Short of that, it's unlikely that either player makes it to the Cubs, because even early in camp, Kevin Alcánatara is making big waves. He's likely to be the team's de facto backup center fielder, though he, too, will begin the season in Iowa. The team's goal might be to develop him patiently, so perhaps an early injury and solid performance from one of the veterans could prompt them to call upon them instead of Alcántara. By midseason, though, they'll be hoping that Alcántara is forcing his way to the bigs, and only a spate of injuries figures to be capable of vaulting Jankowski or Allen to the big leagues at that point. There's nothing wrong with depth moves like these. They're bad news, because at least one of the two would be in some other camp right now if Caissie were healthy—just as Chris Flexen would be elsewhere if Brandon Birdsell weren't dealing with a shoulder problem. Once injuries like those crop up, a team has to deal with them, and the Cubs are working hard to keep some viable options in play, should they be left suddenly without one of their key contributors. Their dedication to depth this winter continues into the spring. View full article

The 2025 season will be the second baseman's last chance to prove he can be consistent and healthy enough to factor into the long-term plans for the Cubs. Is he up to it? Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images If you only look at his forearms, it's easy to dream on Nico Hoerner taking a big step forward in the power department as he enters his mid-20s; it just requires a change of approach. If you look only at his swing speeds and exit velocities, it's impossible to imagine him ever tapping into more than a modicum of pop. The truth, surely, is somewhere in the middle. If you only watched Hoerner play defense in 2023, when his one-year slide over to shortstop was scrapped in deference to the arrival of free agent Dansby Swanson and he could unleash the athleticism he'd carefully built up to make playing short possible on the easier duty of playing second base, he looks like a long-term asset based on his glovework, alone. He was everywhere. If you only watched him play in 2024, when a forearm problem exacerbated what was already a slightly problematic weak arm, he looks like a player without a true defensive home—solid at second, but limited; fine if he moved to left field, but the bat wouldn't play; good at third base, maybe, but in a Nick Madrigal kind of way. The truth is somewhere in the middle. You could forgive Hoerner if he feels a bit stuck in the middle with the Cubs right now, and you could forgive the Cubs (and their fans) if they feel a similar sort of frustration. After that 2022 breakout campaign, so much looked possible. Hoerner moved to shortstop to replace Javier Báez, and admirably held his own; hit 10 home runs in 517 plate appearances; maintained a superb strikeout rate; and stole bases very efficiently. He was an exciting young player, and the extension he signed in Mar. 2023 gave fans hope that he would blossom into a genuine star under cost control—if only for the medium term, rather than for another decade. Instead, the last two seasons have been uneven. They feel like steps sideways, rather than forward. Hoerner has still made contact at an elite rate, and he's increased his walk rate incrementally. Instead of growing into a bit more power, though, that part of his game has regressed, and he's used the opposite field a bit less well, to boot. He's been an average overall hitter, which can still be hugely valuable if one adds tons of value on the bases and in the field—but after racking up 22 steals in his final 65 games of 2023, he stole just 31 all season in 2024. His second-half OBP in 2023 was pushing .380, but in 2024, there was no similarly hot stretch, and his final number was .335. Meanwhile, his defense was solid, but the spark of spectacularity that he showed with the leather in 2023 was gone. This year, Hoerner has to pick some lanes and thrive within them. He's making $11.5 million in 2025 and $12 million in 2026, for his ages-28 and 29 seasons. He won't still be young on the other side of these seasons, when he heads for free agency. He needs to realize his potential—if he hasn't already done so—right now. This is his last chance to remain in the Cubs' plans, even for the final year of his deal. The best version of Hoerner is the guy we've already seen, in the second half of 2023 and the middle of 2022. It's a selectively aggressive, high-contact, high-OBP profile, even if that means willingly trading what little power he can access. He traded away that power in 2024, alright, as his Damage rate on batted balls (the percentage of batted balls that had an exit velocity, launch angle and hit direction likely to lead to an extra-base hit) fell from the league's 10th percentile in both 2022 and 2023 to the 4th percentile in 2024. Unfortunately, he didn't get selective aggression in the exchange; he didn't create more hard contact to the opposite field or draw more walks. His SEAGER (Selective Aggression Engagement Rate) score fell from the 37th and 42nd percentiles in the league the previous two seasons to the 15th in 2024, so he didn't have even a prolonged stretch where he was that .300 hitter with a strong walk rate to boost it. He has to change that this season, if he wants to take a step toward stardom. He has to convert more of his count management to walks, and/or sit on certain pitch types and locations and create more line drives to all fields, so he can get on base at a .370 clip. Otherwise, he won't be in very high demand this winter. Now, here's the twist: whether he takes that step forward or not, the Cubs are going to trade him next offseason. Why? Mainly, it's because of Swanson. With five years and $139 million left on his deal, there's no turning back on the team's commitment to him, but Swanson will be 31 this year. Actuarially, in the modern game, it's very unlikely that he sticks at shortstop beyond this year. In 2024, for the first time in modern history, no player in the league played even 120 games at short at age 31 or older. Swanson will stick at the spot for 2025, but we saw him begin to deteriorate in the field even in 2024. His greatest limitation has always been arm strength, so the natural place for him to move is second base. In all likelihood, come 2026, Swanson will have crossed the keystone, and the Cubs will either have Jefferson Rojas ready; slide Matt Shaw over from third to short; or go shopping for an alternative. No matter which it is, Hoerner is likely to be shipped out, to replenish the farm system; bolster the pitching staff; save money; and/or create space for Swanson, Shaw, Rojas, and/or James Triantos, depending on how this season unfolds. This season is Hoerner's last stand. He needs to have a big campaign. If he does, he might get a lot of reps at the top of the batting order, and he might catalyze the Cubs' run back to the playoffs. He might earn himself a lot of money in the process. What he probably won't do, either way, is earn a long-term place in the Cubs' plans. View full article

The Cubs are back in game action. The scores don't matter and the contests will be populated with minor-leaguers for most of the next month, but Thursday offered a huge milestone—and some fun Statcast-fueled insights. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs drubbed the Los Angeles Dodgers in their season opener Thursday. If you're in a certain kind of headspace and it would be helpful, feel free to ignore the fact that it was the Cactus League opener, and that the game's biggest single blow was a three-run home run by obscure prospect Ivan Brethowr, and just savor that victory. Yes, it was just a spring training game, and an even wilder, more minor-league-flavored one than most, but there were two features of major interest in play: The first test of the automated ball-strike challenge system in an MLB game; and Statcast data flowing freely from Camelback Ranch, the spring home of the Dodgers. The first is neat, a little bit of a novelty and a preview of 2026, when we're very likely to see a debugged version of the challenge system come into play for balls and strikes in MLB games that count. The Cubs got the better side of the first challenge ever in a game featuring big-leaguers, when Reese McGuire challenged a called ball thrown by Cody Poteet and the computers overturned the call, granting Poteet a strike. Much more fun and exciting, though, is the Statcast info. Until this year, the only park in the Cactus League that had Statcast data freely available to the public was Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, where the Diamondbacks and Rockies train. Whether because of the ABS system being installed or just because that's the direction things are heading, we now know that Camelback Ranch will offer another source of data we outside observers can capture and analyze. It wouldn't be surprising if we end up with such data for a majority of spring games this year—and that would mark a big step forward in our ability to evaluate performances and the decisions teams must make based on them in the weeks ahead. I want to talk about the standout performances from the game, and we will, but first, a word of caution is in order: It seems clear to me that the Statcast system in that park was improperly calibrated. As you'll soon see, there were some velocity readings parading past viewers in this game that simply can't be right, so we need to mentally discount them just a little bit. That's ok. It's too early to be taking such readings at face value, anyway. We should allow for lots of tinkering and working on things. Nonetheless, numbers like these—numbers that measure movements and processes, rather than multivariate on-field outcomes—matter even in tiny samples, and we can glean a little bit from them even in this strange context. The Shadow Bullpen If the season began tomorrow, instead of four weeks from now, the Cubs' relief corps on Opening Day would probably include: Ryan Pressly Ryan Brasier Porter Hodge Nate Pearson Caleb Thielbar Tyson Miller Eli Morgan Julian Merryweather Of course, that assumes perfect health and roughly the expected performances by all the candidates for various jobs, which won't come to fruition. Still, that's the baseline octet slated to fill out their bullpen. So when I tell you that Cody Poteet, Brad Keller, Daniel Palencia and Jack Neely did most of the heavy lifting Thursday, you don't automatically need to care how they did. But they did very well. Poteet was the mixed bag. His secondary stuff was all over the place, and he struggled to repeat his delivery, leading to some walks and some hard contact on fat pitches. An inconsistent release point was a major source of his struggles (when he had them) in the Yankees system, so it's discouraging that he ran into that very problem in his first game as a member of the Cubs. On the other hand, Poteet's fastball averaged 94.4 miles per hour on Statcast, touching 96. Last season, his average heater was just 93.3 mph. We should assume that that 94.4 was really about 92.5, and make the 96 a 94, but that's still an exciting amount of zip from the possible long reliever, given that it's only Feb. 20. His first inning of work was strong. He ran into a mechanical or grip issue in the second that led to his heater flattening out, even as it held its velocity. At this early juncture, that type of stuff is supposed to happen. We'll see how he progresses, but it was a fine debut. Things only got better. Keller, a minor-league free agent who signed with the Cubs and who made sense as a target for them all along, was pumping gas in his 1 2/3 innings of scoreless, two-strikeout ball. His average fastball velocity last year was 93.8 miles per hour. On Thursday, Statcast registered him as high as 97.9 and had him averaging 96.2. Again, there's no way that's right, but it seems as though he was throwing at least as hard as he did during the regular season last year. Even more interesting, arguably, was an apparent adjustment to his pitch shapes. Keller's fastball had a little less cut to it, but to compensate, he was throwing a version of the hard slider he used in 2024 that plays more like a cutter: less depth, but the same amount of horizontal swerve. He might be unlocking a new arsenal, of sorts, though we need more data to tell for sure. Keller is a very long shot to make the roster right away, but he could easily end up contributing as a spot starter or long reliever by the end of May—especially if he really is on the way to sitting 95 or so this year. Palencia and Neely were the showstoppers, though. If you care to suspend your disbelief for a moment, Palencia's first pitch of the spring was 100.0 miles per hour, and he sat right around there throughout a scoreless inning, touching as high as 101.3 mph. Even if we apply a skepticism discount to this one, it's awesome. Palencia has been the easiest dark-horse reliever to dream on all winter for this team, even though holding a spot for him was never an option. He looked as good mechanically Thursday as he did at times late in 2024, and if he can keep up any semblance of that, he has a chance to become this team's relief ace over the next year or two. Neely and Palencia make a truly delightful one-two punch, and if they pan out, we need to cook up a dynamic double nickname for them. Palencia is built like a middle linebacker; Neely is built like a rim-protecting center. Palencia's pitch mix is surprisingly varied for a reliever, but he certainly lacks the command to be a starter, and his sheer, explosive power makes up for imperfect fastball shape. Neely, all neverending limbs and with pretty good command of just two pitches, gets plenty of his value from that subtle art of the vertical approach angle. He pitched the sixth after Palencia's scoreless fifth, and fanned two without allowing a baserunner. He sat 97, and if you only believe it was 94.5, who cares? He also used his slider more than his fastball, anyway, and it displayed its usual chaotic filthiness. I don't think anyone would even argue with the idea that Palencia and Neely represent the highest-upside back end of the Cubs' possible bullpens. It's just too risky to have come into this season counting on anything from either. They're a shadow bullpen, a second unit—along with Poteet, Keller, Ben Heller, Luke Little, and whoever falls through the cracks in the battle for rotation spots in Chicago and/or Iowa. That they have so much promise and are yet inessential to the team heading into the season is awfully exciting, as Thursday affirmed. They Don't Call Him Tater for Nothing At this moment, the battle for the final bench spot looks likely to come down to Vidal Bruján and Gage Workman. Bruján started in center field in this game, and he looked fine. He's a bit less selective than you'd like a player with his contact profile to be, but in a game like Thursday's, you also want to see him get his rips. He got a great jump on a stolen base; he got a less impressive jump on a probably-uncatchable-anyway fly ball, and was otherwise untested in center. If Bruján proves he can hit a little and patrol center well, that could seal the gig for him, but Workman put on a show in his Cubs organization debut. He rapped a second-inning single sharply through the infield against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and started two slick around-the-horn double plays at third base. The big moment, though, came when he rode a Justin Wrobleski pitch out of the park to the opposite field. The homer only had a 101.5-mph exit velocity, so it wasn't a no-doubter, but his huge frame and ability to generate bat speed even deep in the hitting zone was eye-opening. He's a tremendous athlete; it would be a bummer to ship him back to Detroit. Miscellany It wasn't just Workman who lit up Statcast with some exit velocities worth monitoring. Kevin Alcántara hit a ball 107.3 miles per hour, scalding it through the left side of the infield. That he didn't life that ball mitigates the celebration a little, because as we know, that's the hurdle he most needs to clear to emerge as a productive big-league hitter. In that very vein, though, it was interesting to see him take a Yamamoto fastball off the plate away and float it into right field on a nice line-drive trajectory for a first-inning single. He's learning to make some of the adjustments that could unlock his enormous upside. Meanwhile, Moises Ballesteros swung five times in 16 pitches seen, and made contact all five times. Two of those were foul, and none of the three he put in play was especially impressive. He went 0-3, but he did draw a walk, and that plate discipline is going to be crucial to his development. With the feel for contact he boasts, there's no reason he should be swinging as often as he was late in the year with Iowa. He looked hitterish, but mature Thursday. Finally, let's applaud Michael Busch, the only true regular for the team who was tasked with playing on the first day of his strange spring season. He went 2-3, with a neat opposite-field liner single off Yamamoto (a mirror image of Alcántara's, really) and an absolute laser that (scarily) hit Dodgers hurler Bobby Miller in the head. Miller was ok, but that was a frightening moment. Busch had scalded the ball at 105.7 mph back through the box. The two overlapped for years in the Dodgers system, after both went from high schools in the Upper Midwest to the ACC for college. They know each other well, and Busch would have been especially wrecked if things hadn't turned out ok. They did, though, and Busch's first game was a success. His only out was also hit over 104 mph, but on the ground. It's just one game, that doesn't count. Still, that was a fun start to what the Cubs hope will be a fun season. It'll be fascinating to see how much of that tantalizing pitching data carries over into the next appearances for each of those arms, and how these key young hitters continue to handle their big chances in camp. View full article

The Cubs have officially set themselves up to open the season with a four-person bench composed of people who weren't in the organization at the end of last September. One of those four might not even be in the organization now. Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images To make room for new signee Justin Turner, the Cubs designated Alexander Canario for assignment Thursday morning. That was an increasingly likely possibility with each passing move to overhaul Chicago's bench this winter, and we're now up to five such moves: Carson Kelly signed on as the complementary catcher, via free agency The team selected Gage Workman in the Rule 5 Draft in December In a trade with the Marlins, the Cubs jettisoned first baseman Matt Mervis and brought in utility man Vidal Bruján Last month, the club signed infielder Jon Berti This week, they signed Turner That left no room for Canario, just as there was no room for Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom, all of whom the team let go for free this offseason. They might yet trade Canario for a nominal return, but he's essentially gone for nothing, too. Last year's bench was atrocious, and they were exposed when injuries poked holes in an otherwise solid lineup. The front office believes the veterans they've brought in substantially raise the floor for the team by giving them much better depth. Since Canario was out of minor-league options, he would have eventually met this fate, unless he had such an outstanding spring as to force his way onto the 26-man roster. Doing this now opens more reps in center field for the likes of Bruján, Berti, and Workman throughout Cactus League play, but in truth, none of those three are likely to play a lot of center for this team, even if they look decent when given their chance in exhibition games. Should Pete Crow-Armstrong get hurt, the team will turn to Kevin Alcántara, who will otherwise wait at Triple-A Iowa. Shy of that, though, there's no one on the roster to whom Craig Counsell is likely to be comfortable falling back. Bruján is leading off and playing center field in the first game of the spring season Thursday, as the Cubs try to assess his viability as a backup to Crow-Armstrong. However, it still feels like making this move early signals that the Cubs have their eye on a final bench upgrade. They might yet nab a backup center-field option, ideally someone available either on a minor-league deal or with options left. That could be Manuel Margot, whose season with the Twins in 2024 saw him not only struggle as a pinch-hitter but play relatively little center field. He's typically a defense-first player, so that was a jarring turn in his career, but he would still have utility as a Crow-Armstrong alternative in the small center field at Wrigley Field. He's probably gettable as a non-roster invitee, at this stage. It could also mean a trade, for someone like the Guardians' Tyler Freeman or the Rays' Jake Mangum. A low-grade, optionable, center field-capable project makes a world of sense now, unless and until one of Bruján, Workman or Berti shows more feel than expected in the pasture. Now that Turner, Berti and Kelly are locked into the roster, Workman is imperiled. If he doesn't show facility in center, he's likely to be offered back to the Tigers in favor of someone who does. The squeeze at the end of the Cubs roster is on, although it won't fully tighten until the end of camp, since they can take 14 position players (or more, since it's only two games and they have many more optionable pitchers) to Tokyo for the season-opening series against the Dodgers, for which they get to use a 28-man roster. Canario is the latest casualty, but he won't be the last. View full article