Bertz

I tend to be a peripherals hard liner. xFIP is the first number I look at for a pitcher. I think strikeouts, walks, and groundballs tell you the vast majority of how a pitcher performed. xERA is worth keeping an eye on too to make sure contact quality is accounted for, though even there I think samples should be very large to buy into someone's ability (or lack thereof) to manage contact. Assad's bad via both! Assad's xERA has been higher than his actual by at least a run every season of his career. It's actually worse than just looking at his peripherals via xFIP. So on the one hand Assad looks like the easiest regression candidate in the league. But on the other, at this point we're past 300 innings across four seasons of this horsefeathers. It's not exactly large sample size, but it's certainly not small. The best recent comp I can find is 2017-2020 Zach Davies. He was able to go nearly 500 innings before the wheels came off, though as we know first hand when they came off they *flew* off. I'd certainly not let Assad start a playoff game, and I'd probably try and move him over the winter (give Brown his swing role). But man is it tempting to try and just let this go until it actually stops working.

I've been as guilty as anyone about handwringing about IP counts earlier in the year, but it's pretty clear with Horton that something like the Garret Crochet plan last year is the template. Horton's incredible midseason level up results wise has made it so that ~70 pitch target each outing hasn't killed the bullpen like I would have worried about 3 months ago.

Nice!

I wonder if Cole Mathis goes to the AFL to try and make up for some at bats. I know it's usually someone more in the AA adjacent stage of their careers but some Low A guys do go (Zyhir Hope went last year I know).

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46139027/2025-mlb-free-agency-offseason-early-intel-contracts-schwarber-tucker-imai-bregman-alonso Tatsuya Imai Munetaka Murakami Kazuma Okamoto

They're 2nd in the league in pulled flyball rate in the second half https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/batted-ball?dateStart=2025-07-14&gameType=Regular&minSwings=q&minGroupSwings=1&seasonStart=2025&seasonEnd=2025&type=batting-team And if you want to specify just hard contact, 12th in pulled barrels (since this is a custom query I don't have a good way to turn this into a rate) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=Pull|&hfC=&hfSea=2025|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=6|&game_date_gt=2025-07-14&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=team&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_bip=on#results

Decent data point here too. Cubs/Brewers the most resilient of the contenders in terms of avoiding lengthy bouts of bad play

I guess to engage with this a little more seriously, the NL feels pretty wide open. - The Dodgers are *easily* the scariest team in the league right now. They're more or less completely healthy for the first time all year, though TBD how long that will last. Especially since with them not being in line for a bye and the Padres on their heels they can't just sell out for rest. And it's not a fluke they get so many injuries. But unless/until the injury bug comes back in the next few weeks they're the favorites IMO - The Phillies losing Wheeler was massive for playoff purposes. They're still tough obviously, but no longer feel overwhelmingly so. Their scariest bats are vulnerable to LHP, which is worth keeping in mind for matchups - Brewers are good team but not particularly scary IMO. They're a good team who got insanely hot for 6 weeks. Those wins are banked, which matters a lot for the standings, but doesn't mean much for October. A seemingly sustainable takeaway though is that since adding Vaughn and getting Contreras back on track they're no longer vulnerable to LHP - Mets are a good all around team. With the very notable exceptions of Lindor and Soto their roster is more depth over impact. Their SPs are in a bad way right now, but I don't see anything that looks permanent, probably mostly paying for some of the good fortune early in the year. - Padres are probably the matchup you want most right now. Its the worst position player group among the NL playoff teams by a healthy margin. The SPs are a mess right now, with much scarier under the hood markers than the Mets. The bullpen is terrifying, and Cease/King getting hot at the right time could decide a playoff series pretty quickly, but IMO they're the clear #6 in the NL playoff field at the moment

I'm old enough to remember the Cubs going 7-0 against the Mets in the 2015 regular season and getting their asses handed to them in the NLCS

Long to this point in his career has reverse splits, which somewhat ironically lowers his chances of sticking in the big leagues but raises his chances of being an impact guy in the event that he does. I'd also suspect along with his 40 man status is why he never made it up this year despite Turner's issues.

Hey Eli Morgan's alive!

Me on BaseballSavant during that first start

Really want to fast forward and see what the org decides w/r/t Caissie/Mo/Long/Alcantara

Elder's much better than his ERA, but even by the more generous measures he's not full on good. Interestingly his peripherals are garbage against lefties while his results are garbage against righties. Curious if there's something there or just SSS weirdness.

God if this year ends up being payback for 2018 it'll be my second favorite season ever even if they get pantsed in the playoffs 2008 style

Yeesh, that is about as unfun as a 12-0 Iowa box score can be, glad Myrtle decided to pick up the slack

Do you *actually* think there's a reason that Turner can hit lefty relievers but not lefty starters? Or did you just cherry pick the number that made your point after you saw that Turner's been better overall against lefties this year?

Why just SP?

I'd say too unless/until the standings start looking a lot different the best course of action is for Craig to really aggressively get the main guys rest. And leaning on platoon advantages is one of the more reasonable ways of doling out that rest.

Looks like the breakeven point is 766 PAs before wOBA finally starts becoming more meaningful than xwOBA https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/ Also periodic reminder as we round yhe bend into the offseason that the best simple projection system for next season is 2/3s of a guy's xwOBA and 1/3rd of their actual, which I find to be an extremely handy rule of thumb.

With Alcantara and Santana in curious to see the lineup against LHP. Does Craig go all in and take all the lefties (plus Happ) out except Tucker? Or are these changes in order to be able to pinch hit mid game and still have pinch hit options available late game?

Jack Neely rehabbing at South Bend. Hopefully after his convalescense he gets back to where he was late last year

Sounds pretty encouraging TBH

Yes but I wouldn't pound the table over it. Might also depend on matchups? I feel like Happ's issue against lefties is his swing is pretty grooved, so there might be some guys you like him against even right handed.