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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    I would guess our weak bench certainly hasn't helped things, but I think some of it is just life with the DH. There's a reason teams prioritized a 9th reliever over a 4th bench guy. And for the Cubs specifically Swanson's durability + the existence of Hoerner means they don't have to carry a dedicated backup shortstop. I am hoping for better bench play. Turner would make me nervous as a starter but still feels very qualified for bench work. Workman seems really fun, and Berti/Kelly are boring but I mean that as a compliment. Add in that our injury replacement at most positions is a Top 100 prospect and this *should* be a really deep team.
  3. Bertz
    Same. I also just went digging through Arizon Phil's writings. Haven't seen any news on Rojas, just a suggestion that we trade Rojas for Workman so that we have the freedom to option Workman up and down 🙃. While I was looking though, I did come across this which ties into something else you wrote:
  4. Bertz
    Do we know what's up with Jefferson Rojas? I haven't heard a peep about him this spring. I didn't expect to get inundated with Rojas, but I would expect approximately as much Rojas as we've gotten Cristian Hernandez. Like this game feels like it ought to include him.
  5. Bertz
    The tough thing with any analysis about strikeouts is the velocity/stuff explosion has been happening concurrently. How much of the increase in K's is batters and how much is pitchers? The average fastball has gone up 1.5 MPH in the pitch tracking era (since 2008). The top end has gotten even crazier. Matt Lindstrom had the highest velo in the league (minimum 50 IP) in '08 at 97.8. Last year 22 guys averaged at least that hard, including a handful of SPs. 3 guys averaged over 100!
  6. Bertz
    I don't know how much of this is a league thing and how much is a Cubs thing, but this team just does not use that 4th bench spot. Like did you realize Luis Vazquez spent 47 days on the roster last year? He only got into 11 games and got 14 PAs, but he spent more than a quarter of the season on the roster. The year before Edwin Rios was a Cub for 2 months and only got 31 PAs! So I took Counsell's comment as Alcantara will likely get that treatment for a spell or two this season. So like even if say Nico goes on the IL, they might call up Alcantara to warm the bench and just leave Berti/Workman to cover Nico's lost playing time. I would imagine that it would be a week or two tops at a time and not a full Vazquez situation.
  7. Bertz
    Brewers have two of their promising young starters on the IL already. DL Hall has a late strain and just got put on the 60 day IL. Aaron Ashby strained an oblique and it doesn't sound minor. If the Brewers end up winning the division, it's most likely IMO to be because they end up getting a hell of a lot more out of guys like Hall, Ashby, and Misiorowski than we get out of our equivalents like Brown/Wicks/Horton. So it's not the biggest headline, but probably important stuff.
  8. Bertz
    Finally had time to sit down and read MLB Pipeline's list. Wow that is some writeup on Juan Tomas.
  9. Bertz
    I think Keller's got a good shot at making the roster. He's made some pretty real improvements, and there's some buzz around him. Nicky Lopez probably has a decent shot of making it to Japan because of how behind Shaw and Hoerner are, but I don't think he makes it to domestic opening day. He's playing well this spring but doesn't seem to be separating himself from Brujan or Workman. Jankowski might be the backup CF, though I doubt it. Anyone else feels like it would require an injury that has not happened yet.
  10. Bertz
    If Zombro ends up being such a miracle worker he can even fix Kilian, then rip up his current contract and give him a new one with a couple extra zeroes to the end. I'm really looking forward to closer to mid season when we can see who has been Zombro'd and where it has/hasn't made an impact.
  11. Bertz
    Nope, not today
  12. Bertz
    My optimism on Merryweather is climbing. Two outings in a row he has looked great. It's probably all about health for him so I feel more comfortable drawing conclusions on him than for most of the staff.
  13. Bertz
    For those not watching
  14. Bertz
    God I love having a fast guy on the team
  15. Bertz
    The one thing I didn't like about the lineup last week that looked like the potential regular lineup was having Busch/Swanson back to back. In addition to mixing up L/R I like switching up power/contact. So this is cool, even I presume after Nico comes back and pushes Shaw to #9.
  16. Bertz
    The last time this team played games that counted, Pearson was the #2 in the bullpen pecking order and getting legitimate leverage innings. Pearson had a 2.73 ERA and 3.65 xFIP as a Cub while making on the fly mechanical adjustments. Like if Pearson's getting sent down, shouldn't we also send Hodge down to keep one of those out of options pitchers? I mean he doesn't have much track record either. As recently as last June he had a 5.74 ERA and a nearly 16% walk rate in AAA. Go to AAA and prove you can still throw strikes in the new calendar year, right? If Pearson looks broken during his side work this spring, sure, that's one thing. If we're sending him down for roster management then Jed has lost the plot. "The new and improved Brad Keller topped out at 98!" Cool. For Nate Pearson that's just a normal Tuesday.
  17. Bertz
    Curious what the level of concern is internally on Miller. He's not established enough that I feel comfortable saying he's just getting work in. But at the same time his roster spot felt pretty safe coming into the spring so he might simply just be getting his work in.
  18. Bertz
    The problem with Arizona Phil is he is well sourced, he's acutely intimate with roster management minutiae, but his baseball opinions are so so bad. It's a bit of Russian roulette reading him.
  19. Bertz
    That's the part I'm taking issue with. Unless they think he's got a real chance as a starter, or there have been red flags in what he's done on the backfields this spring, he shouldn't be at Iowa.
  20. Bertz
    If the team actually thinks Pearson can cut it as a starter, cool. If that is just a roster management play, that's really stupid. The fact that Pearson has only gone one inning each in his two spring training outings says it's the latter. Hopefully Phil is wrong.
  21. Bertz
    There was this annoying thing with Dusy the last few years where fans refused to acknowledge that he learned and grew from his Giants/Cubs era. He was no longer that guy with the Nats and Astros, and the reactionary response morphed into "actually he was never really *that* bad compared to his peers." No no, he absolutely was, and Cubs fans (and Reds fans) have numerous receipts. That's all a long winded way of saying I think CPatt ends up a star if he's 10 years younger. Between having actual numbers around defense and the flyball revolution he would have been more properly valued in the '10s and gotten way more runway.
  22. Bertz
    No TV today but AZ's park does have Statcast
  23. Bertz
    I actually think the likely avenue to Busch improving significantly is a reduced K rate rather than extra power. Among hitters with 300 PAs last year, here are Busch's percentiles in a few categories Contact Rate - 33rd In Zone Contact - 36th Chase Rate - 74th In Zone Swing rate - 49th Walk Rate - 85th Strikeout Rate - 13th That strikeout rate just does not fit with the rest of the picture. He has below average but not notably so in the contact department. He's patient but far from passive. There's just nothing under the hood that warrants a 28-29% K rate. This might have already started to course correct actually, as he ran a 25% in the second half that feels like a more natural place for him to settle. SSS but he's also improved his contact numbers this spring. The 80% contact rate he's currently got would be 66th percentile. He won't keep all those gains, though K/BB changes are the closest to sticky of any spring training stats. But if he can drop his K-rate from last year by 4-5 points that's a big deal. Back of the napkin I think that gets him up past the 3 WAR mark.
  24. Bertz
    Even for you this is a reach
  25. Bertz
    The number of times over the last 3 years Nick Madrigal came up with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs and we left the at bat saying "Ah, well, nevertheless" killed any remaining horsefeathers I give about situational strikeouts. From a teambuilding perspective I am wary of too many strikeouts. But to me it's a symptom of susceptibility more than the strikeouts themselves. If the team wants to strike out 30% of the time but run a 110 wRC+ and not have any glaring pitch type susceptibilities that's fine.
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