Bertz

I'd be pretty ecstatic for any of Gore, Ryan, or Cabrera. I think when you combine what those guys do to set up the postseason rotation in the short term plus how they affect this coming offseason, it's just a massive impact. I don't think any rental can be only move made over the next week and not leave me livid that more wasn't done. Even Cease.

Yeah I'm expecting he'll go to the bullpen after another couple starts. Teams now have much more sophisticated tools than the old Verducci "your career high + 30 innings" rule of thumb, but realistically they still usually end up in that neighborbood. 120ish regular season innings is probably what we're looking at for Horton, especially if they want him to be more than nominally available in October.

Moises' single a few innings ago at 112.3 MPH is the hardest hit ball he's had since he got to AAA. And given his age I'd presume his hardest hit ball of his life (in game of course).

I think you could argue a pretty wide range of values for Castro. But I would suspect he's worth less than Naylor. So yeah one guy in the neighborhood of #10 in the system and then another closer to #30 is probably what I'd expect.

I've been using Sanders and Pedro Ramirez as my mental model of what one of the top rental bats would cost, so yeah I think Sanders/Triantos is about the same. Maybe since Suarez is *the* top bat we need to aim a little higher. Like Wicks or Birdsell instead of Sanders? But regardless of specifics two guys that'd slot in around #10 in our system is a good place to set expectations.

So I believe this is somewhat up for dispute. Arizona Phil listed him as having two options heading into this year. And as much as Arizona Phil's opinions can be....interesting....I do tend to trust him pretty implicitly on roster administration minutiae. That said the general point stands. I think if the Cubs are willing to dip into the crew at Iowa they're going to win the bidding on nearly any player they covet. Teams generally have to choose between talent and proximity when they get prospects back at the deadline. Receiving someone with impact talent who you can call up immediately is going to be really tempting for opposing teams.

Moises BallesterosJefferson RojasKevin AlcantaraJaxon WigginsOwen CaissieJonathon LongEthan ConradCristian HernandezBrandon BirdsellJames TriantosKane KepleyJosiah HartshornPedro RamirezWill SandersChristian FranklinRyan GallagherCole MathisDominick ReidAlexey LumpuyAngel Cepeda

I could see two arguments: 1. Better to have one guy out of position than two 2. Seiya is significantly faster than Happ at this point. So even granting that he's a bit of a putz in the field, decent chance he's still a better CF than Happ

I think the air quotes should go around "Insider" instead of Mocc Bomb

Yeah the Cubs are missing a middle ground on young pitching. - Horton/Wiggins/Brown each have some pretty significant value. More than you'd give up for any rental, certainly - There's some solid performing lower ceiling SP in the upper minors with Sanders, Noland, and Schlaffer. These feel like "a guy" in a trade not "the guy" - Wicks' first half has been a mess between the injury and a couple outings where he got bombed. On the flip side the stuff is up a couple ticks here in '25. Probably a tough time to move him. Though if you've got a team whose model is catching feelings over his velo increase maybe it could work out despite the results? - Birdsell just got back from a major injury, so he might be able to lead a deal a month from now but right now again it feels tough

The bottom half of the Royals' lineup is hot trash, and Brown has had some 3rd time through difficulties this year. Even if you're not getting the platoon advantage there's value to not letting Witt or Pasquantino see him a 3rd time.

Tomorrow's opposing SP it sounds like

I don't want to get into the Brewers good/bad discussion, but one thing worth mentioning with them is IP considerations. They're 5th in the league in reliever innings, and unlike years past it's not just just screwy accounting tied to using an opener. On the SP side, Misiorowski will pass his career high in innings before the end of the month, and obviously Brandon Woodruff is an extreme injury risk. So in the same way that we look at the Cubs' staff and worry about arms exploding left and right down the stretch, the Brewers have the same worries.

Sounds like Brown is coming up to be the bulk guy today, and he's not fully stretched back out. He's thrown 60ish pitches his two outings at Iowa. I suspect the plan is Brasier for 1, then Brown for 4ish, then if things are going well switch to the normal short relievers. If things don't go well during Brown's stint, give it to Flexen to take it to the house.

If you look at enough rumors around this team from reasonable sources (e.g not Jim Bowden), a couple themes emerge: - This is a golden opportunity and they're not going to pass it by - At the same time they DO NOT want to go all in this year though. Sustained success etc. was not just lip service - The team feels supremely confident in getting the most out of players, especially pitchers. They may decide to get creative filling one or more holes. Mooney had an article talking extensively about the 2021 Braves last week, which definitely set off bells in my head - On the position player side, the name of the game is managing risk. The riskiest spot in the lineup is obviously 3B, so expect coverage there, but it's not going to be just adding a 3B and calling it a day - It hasn't been talked about as much, but as BBB mentioned above there's *A LOT* of money available. Even if you want to be super mega ultra careful to not cross the LT this year, there's about $20M to spend? Which considering we're 2/3rds of the way through the year can buy you essentially anything you want So take it all together, and this is what I expect: - I expect the team's biggest move will be for someone with multiple years of control. I do not expect any of the top handful of rentals to end up here - I expect everything else beyond the big move to get a collective "that's it?" - I expect the team to add at least one pitcher with a 5+ ERA and peripherals that say it should be two runs lower - I expect the team to take on some bad 2025 money to defray prospect costs. Someone like Raisel Iglesias is perfect, because he checks this box and the one above - If the team adds two SPs, I expect the second to be surprising. For instance Shane Bieber is making rehab starts right now, but won't be back in the bigs until mid August, but the Cubs would have the reems of trackman data from his rehab starts to see dedinitively how he's recovering - I expect Willi Castro and Sandy Alcantara will be a Cubs

Lumpuy since 6/13 .291/.356/.481, 147 wRC+, 29.9% K rate Lumpuy since 6/28 .340/.400/.600, 189 wRC+, 21.8% K rate SSS still but he's seemingly turning himself into a dude

I like this new thing Myrtle Beach is doing where they're fun to watch and the legit prospects are actually playing well

It's deeply funny to me that these two specifically are the ones calling for the team to objectively make itself worse against LHP

This thing's really fun PCA is #1 in my rankings as well, though I do take James Wood over him, so I think if I do it long enough he'll fall a smidge I'm curious about the players that are included. It's not the whole league, not even close really, and some of the guys are included seem pretty random.

Joe Ryan is very good, but he's not Garret Crochet. Not especially close really.

Such as? RHH 1B isn't the highest value demographic but Long's extremely well rounded

Sharma says Brown will likely come back up to start tomorrow. Presuming he stays up that would give him next Sunday vs. the Sox as well, and then this rotation slot wouldn't have another outing until after the deadline.

Love love love that Myrtle Beach had a big offensive game and it wasn't just the 25 year old going off Cepeda was at a 94 wRC+ coming into today, this game probably puts him in the black

Will Sanders with his best start since getting to Iowa! Also, something to keep in mind is that a league average ERA in the International League where the Cubs play is 4.80-something

Bello has huge L/R splits