Bertz

I think I would do Castro for Shaw but otherwise play it straight up to start. Then I'd be very willing to PH Ballesteros as soon as a good PH opp comes up knowing that I can bring Shaw in at 3rd and shift Castro wherever needed. If this is a regular season game, even a relatively important one, I probably start McGuire over Kelly. But here to your point the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze for what's likely one AB.

I think the big questions today are: - How deep does Shildt let Darvish go? I think he definitely doesn't get twice through the order unscathed but once maybe he can bob and weave enough - Do Darvish or Taillon get any extra juice from being able to shorten up? - Are Miller or Morejon available? The answer *should* be no, but the Padres have an almost pathological need to fail the marshmallow test. And this is probably their last run (mayyybe next year) - Does Craig make the lineup as dangerous as possible for Darvish, knowing it might make the Padres' bullpen have an easier time in the back half of the game? - Darvish is one of the worst pitchers in the league at holding runners, but Fermin's got a great arm. So is this game a track meet or played more straight up?

Darvish is more or less unplayable against LHP this year, and that's not something that's gotten better as the year has gone along. The Cubs are a very bad matchup for him (I'm definitely going to eat these words). I suspect the Padres' plan is Darvish once through the order, turn it over to Kyle Hart to get through the run of lefties in the front half of the lineup, then Michael King, then the short relievers. I also wouldn't be surprised if Shildt is just going to say horsefeathers it and run Miller/Morejon out there again. Something like this? Darvish (2) Hart (1) King (2) Morejon (1) Miller (1) Estrada (2) Suarez (1) Feels like you've gotta get to Darvish and you've probably got to get to him fast. I wonder if Craig loads the lineup up with all the lefties, or if he holds a bit back for later in the game.

I might have missed it too but here are thr specifics

Setting aside that sucked for the Cubs, that was really ****ing cool to watch If I'm counting right the Padres threw 79 fastballs: - 15 were 100 or higher - 40 (!!!) were 98 or 99 - 3 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!) were slower than 96, with the slowest being 95.5 Insane, I assume some sort of record unless there was a Skenes+Chapman game last year that topped it

I have no idea why but the Tigers are +112 to win today. That seems like a major mistake.

In the context of that post I meant four veteran locks as in we'll have four veterans who are guaranteed rotation spots heading into spring, barring injury of course. For roster management purposes I think that's important to keep in mind for gameplanning how you'd get Wiggins to MLB. For the names specifically, I'd say it's very unlikely Shota goes anywhere, but admittedly it's not a lock. I'd put Taillon in a similar boat. I think if Tom juices payroll this winter (unlikely, but this would be the time to do it if ever) or if Jed has no intention of holding onto Tucker, then the offseason gameplan would clearly be pitching pitching pitching, and there'd be money to both add a SP outright and also upgrade from one of the mid priced vets. I'll say I'm not super worried about Shota. He probably doesn't have another year like last year in him, but he's still missing bats and the models still like his stuff. There's probably some positive strikeout regression due that would make his peripherals look a lot more mid-rotationy. I think picking up his option is still a + EV move, even if its not the crazy bargain it looked like a year ago.

I believe I read that he's back to practicing Basically him and Amaya needed the regular season to last about a week or so longer, but alas now they're gonna be relegated to cheerleading.

Not the biggest fan of this but willing to let Craig prove me wrong

They're certainly not down for the series, but you've now given the Cubs' hitters a fresh look. Morejon and Miller were definitely used in their ideal pockets of the lineup. And because they're now up against elimination, unless tomorrow they torch Shota or Cease goes really deep you probably have to plan on using them three days in a row, which *really* impacts performance.

Really fun game - I didn't love Craig going with Palencia when he did, very happy to be wrong. Similarly I was a bit surprised at Pomeranz over Thielbar - Mike Shildt didn't do anything wrong per se, but using your top 3 relievers in a loss in a series this short *hurts* - I hope Dansby being the player of the game gets him a little bit of grace from the fans going forward. I don't suspect it will, but I'm hoping - Speaking of, did Tucker get booed after his K in the first inning or did I hear things?

If the Padres are going to run this lineup out there I wouldn't risk an opener. I think there's more risk in messing with Shota's routine than there is benefit in avoiding having Shota see Tatis/Machado a 3rd time. It'd be different if the Padres had a couple lefty mashers up top but as is basically their entire lineup is worse against lefties or a stones throw from being split neutral.

Civale's been legitimately great out of the pen (unlike Flexen who was purely smoke and mirrors). Curious if he's purely for a game that gets out of hand or if the team thinks he's got a chance to put up actual worthwhile innings.

I believe I saw that they have to be locked in by 10am today

I know Tatis has really stark reverse platoon splits the last two years, but push comes to shove this is my reaction to seeing them: I think if the Cubs lose this series it's going to be because Tatis made it rain on Waveland...or hell he has enough raw power maybe Sheffield. Cease scares me a too. He's so Jekyll and Hyde when he's on he is ON. Really interesting point about how having him next to Pivetta might be hurting him. I guess too he's vulnerable to patient lefties who can handle velo, and we've got several of those. A bit of a shame Tucker can't play the field yet, because I'd love to sneak Moises into Wednesdays lineup. I really hope we can take game 1. Darvish is diminished enough at this stage that this lineup would eat him alive. So if you get game 1 in the bag it feels a safe bet (as much as anything can be with these sample sizes) that we pull one of the latter two games out.

It's actually a pretty good winter to be a FA 1B. Padres, Mariners, Giants, Dbacks. and Mets could all use a 1B. But yeah he's got Angels or Nats written all over him.

Padres going Pivetta-Cease-Darvish, as far as I can tell Craig hasn't said what's up past Boyd

I don't believe we know yet how the pitching is supposed to go. I think the beat writers are at the park right now (I saw Montemurro post a pic from the press box a little bit ago) so I'd imagine we find out in the next little bit.

2nd highest WAR by a Cub's position player group since WW2, and best pure offense in that span. And somehow large swaths of people are convinced they're bad 🙃

I'd be surprised if it's not Boyd-Shota-Taillon. I think Rea has a good argument for a start, his full season numbers aren't that different from Taillon (or Shoa for that matter) and he's probably the hottest SP on the staff. But I think his versatility works against him a bit. You know Rea can come out of the bullpen without issue, you can't say the same about the others.

I don't think this is really true anymore. It used to be extremely true, but the only good players they've developed and graduated in the last 5 years are Andy Pages and Michael Busch. And they're not finding Max Muncy and Justin Turner types anymore either. They've quietly turned into a throw money at the problem team. And that's fine, the league could use a west coast Yankees, but let's be real that this isn't the same Dodgers org as it was in like 2018.

The Cubs do a great job with pitching given the resources they allocate to it. People get like apoplectic about e.g. Hector Neris but when you stack everything up they're definitely in the black. The question is really whether they're allocating enough resources. Now that the roster is fairly complete, this winter will be interesting to see how much gets thrown at the pitching staff. Does Jed either A) forgo Tucker to throw a bunch of dollars at it or B) finally throw a couple of the Iowa bats at the problem.

I actually really like the Reds chances in the wildcard round. I'm actually planning to throw a little money at them. Hunter Greene is as good as anyone. Win his start and then you just need to squeak out one more. I'd be surprised if they make it past the NLDS, and shocked if they take down any of the other teams in a 7 game series, but they're scary in the wildcard round IMO.

I pretty explicitly didn't

The best way to think about this is that any MLB team likely needs 7-8 starters over the course of a season, and if you have eyes in seriously competing you probably wanna bump that closer to 10. Even if you think Wiggins is MLB ready *right now*, for pure roster management reasons they just can't operate in a way that gives him a direct path to MLB. I'd expect the pitching depth to look something like this heading into ST - 4 veteran locks: Likely Boyd, Shota, Taillon, and a TBD new acquisition - 1 optionable near lock: Cade Horton - 1 Justin Steele recovering from injury - 1 veteran swingman. This is probably Rea but maybe the team makes a swap - 2-3 optionable depth types. This is likely some combo of Assad/Brown/Wicks. I could see one getting moved or shifted to short relief but at least two will enter camp stretched out - Wiggins and to a lesser extent Sanders as off the 40 man prospect depth The season is long, and pitching depth erodes quickly. Like this year the Cubs at damn near any given time had 2-3 starters on the IL and Brown/Wicks didn't perform like we'd have liked. Wiggins is fun and we all want to see him ASAP, but the inherent cost to giving him an easy avenue to make the team early next year is leaving yourself dangerously vulnerable to attrition.