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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I assume the plan is to grab Cobb after his salary demands to come back down to reality, sign a backup catcher, and grab a reliever, probably a lefty, for cheap shortly before the start of Spring Training. I do wonder if we're still after Britton or some other higher end reliever in his walk year though. I'd be shocked if we signed another reliever to a multi-year deal, but we've got plenty of spending power left for this year.
  2. Bertz
    Sharma's latest for the Athletic backs this up, says he's looking for 4/80.
  3. Bertz
    Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be) Do you hope for opt out or no opt out? (I hope for opt out still) Probably? It might not be fair but I think at this point it would take years of consistent strong production from him for me to not think "here we go again" during any little slump.
  4. Bertz
    Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.
  5. Bertz
    I like Cishek a good bit. I was hoping for a little more here though if we're being honest.
  6. Bertz
    If they traded a bunch of good prospects for one-year of Machado and signed Davis to a 4-year contract, I'd be okay with that. They'd be a much better team for one year (and definitely give the Cubs a run for their money for the NL Central) while giving up many of their best prospects and potentially hamstringing their payroll a bit by paying big for a closer. IMO, the Cubs would still be the envy of the division (with Milwaukee gaining) because their line-up is so young they are likely to get better over the next 2-3 years offensively without "improving" the roster with outside acquisitions. Absolutely, they'd be pushing all their chips in to be comparable to us for one year (and that's assuming we don't pivot by grabbing Archer or something). It would suck, but even that unpleasant scenario ends with them crying about losing their MVP candidate while we will be cheerfully debate whether we still want Harper or if we'd rather go get Machado for spite. The Cards are a sinking ship, it's just that they haven't sunk enough yet where adding an MVP candidate can't keep them afloat for another year.
  7. Bertz
    I think this is good news generally. The Cards were always going to make a big move this winter, and in my opinion Ozuna is the least scary of the names they've been linked to. They took a big bite out of their depth to be 5 games back of us rather than 7. The obvious downside is if they're not done. If they were to say "horsefeathers it" they could go grab Manny Machado and Wade Davis, and at that point I'm not entirely sure we're still better than them.
  8. Bertz
    I would guess we shop in the tier above him, but Tony Watson is a guy that Statcast thought was pretty great last year but he got middling results. If we end up going for two relievers instead of just one, I'd love for him to be the second.
  9. Bertz
    Speaking of luxury tax and all of that. I put together a spreadsheet to track our payroll and here's where I've got us at the moment. This should be pretty accurate for 2018, with the only discrepancies being with arbitration settlements (highlighted in blue). 2019 and 2020 obviously come with bigger much error bars, because of arbitration raises and contract options. For guys already in arb or whom we already have an estimate, I assumed a raise of 1.5x each year. For guys who hit arb for the first time, I tried to ballpark what they'd get by looking at comparable guys on this year's list, but honestly ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Using this as a guidepost though, there's practically nothing we can do at this point to go over the cap for this year, short of Darvish AND Davis. Next year's what's interesting. Harper's probably going to be a cap hit of 35-40 million, so the question is how far above the cap can we go. I think what we do for the last spot in the rotation will probably give us our answer.
  10. Bertz
    I don't actually like Smyly that much because of all the fly balls, but it's hard to argue with these type of deals. Lots of upside with little downside.
  11. Bertz
    I was cool trading Montgomery and backfillimg his swingman role coming into the winter (I even did it in my mock!), but IMO the Chatwood signing closes that door. He's too brittle, we need to have a guy you'd be comfortable making 20 starts on hand.
  12. Bertz
    Sorry I might have missed the discussions, my bad. Just seems inconceivable but I guess with pre-arb players making up a lot of their offensive WAR they can move some money around and afford him. The Yankees and Dodgers are trying to get under the tax, but just for this year. The Tax gets harsher each consecutive year ar you cross it, so most of the big market teams are trying to get under this year and 'reset' their penalties, knowing that starting in 2019 it will be quite a while before they can get back under again.
  13. Bertz
    For Russell I absolutely don't do it, for Baez I most likely don't do it but I'd be willing to listen.
  14. Bertz
    Plus more for one of Báez or Russell. For sure. But they've got enough prospect power to make something work. Their system is killer.
  15. Bertz
    [tweet] [/tweet] Gotta be Brad Hand, right?
  16. Bertz
    I wonder what Zach Britton would cost in terms of players? If signing Cobb is as inevitable as it sounds, then we've filled three of our other pitching holes with multi-year FA deals. That's not a problem per se, but Britton being a rental would be more feature than bug at that point. And since we won't have spent player capital anywhere else I'd be more likely to reach for a luxury item such as Britton. I certainly wouldn't give up Happ for him, but I'd be willing to most our prospects.
  17. Bertz
    [tweet] [/tweet] I know Nightengale is comically bad at this stuff, but I found this interesting. Especially since there were rumors the Sox like Schwarber a few days ago. I don't think I like Scharber for Bradley, but I feel like it's interesting enough that I could be convinced.
  18. Bertz
    Speaking of Sherman, he had this to say in an article earlier this evening
  19. Bertz
    Butler does seem like a guy who might turn into a monster if he's just airing it out for an inning. I'd like to see him come to ST competing for the last spot in the pen, but if he doesnt earn it there's no sleep lost when you have to put him on waivers.
  20. Bertz
    Love this. He's my favorite reliever on the market on a per inning basis, and if we're signing him either his MRI isn't too scarey or we're getting a damaged goods discount.
  21. Bertz
    I doubt they're going to go on full six man rotation, but I wouldn't be surprised if the plan is for Montgomery to make 10ish starts even if no one hits the DL. Have the plan from the outset be 30 starts each for the top guys and Montgomery pick up the other 12. Maybe pick up a little more slack for Chatwood in particular. I don't love Cobb after signing Chatwood. I saw them as either/or. Theo must like the idea of trading for relievers and signing starters. I thought with the supply of good setup men the opposite made sense, but we obviously don't know their current asking prices.
  22. Bertz
    Other side benefit I just thought of: this probably makes it more likely the Rays pack it in and deal Archer.
  23. Bertz
    On the one hand I love this for us, it really helps our odds of getting Harper next year. Bryce in pinstripes is basically a foregone conclusion amongst the media types. On the other hand, horsefeathers the Yankees, so I don't want players I really like going to them.
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    False alarm [tweet]https://twitter.com/SamMillerBB/status/939214208889008128[/tweet]
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