Bertz

Astro's are probably still a little higher, and Dodgers are probably still about equal to us. Here's the ZiPS projection for Yu in Chicago [tweet] [/tweet]

This is perfect. It's a good deal, but not so good that I feel guilty. Depending on how the incentives are structured this is pretty comparable to the Johnny Cueto deal, but swap an opt out for some cash incentives. Yu's better than Cueto was, but Cueto was younger and never had TJ. Also, Yu is one of the half dozen coolest players in the league, regardless of talent. This is going to be so fun.

'Best' is not always cut and dry. With Heyward for instance, we (reportedly) offered the 3rd most dollars, but the Cards didn't include any opt-outs and the Nationals' offer included a crazy amount of deferred money. The Brewers offer may similarly be the highest without actually the best, like say we're offering 5/125 and the Brewers are offering 6/130. There's also the chance that their offer is better, but only nominally so, for example if we're offering 5/125 while they're offering 5/130. That negligible difference probably isn't enough to outweigh the soft factors where we'd come out ahead. The likeliest version is simply that this report is pure bunk, as many (most?) are.

They also have the Cubs defense being pretty bad, which seems...doubtful

It's probably the right play, especially for the pitchers. Yeah there's not a ton of demand right now, but there will be a couple of starters who go down with TJ when camp opens. If like Luis Severino went down, the Yankees would blow past the tax to sign Arrieta or Darvish within a few hours.

ZiPS looks to, on a per inning basis, really like Alec Mills and kind of like Rob Zastryzny, which is good news for our rotation depth.

Dan Szymborski did his ZiPS Top 100 prospects, and Aramis Ademan came in at #18.

I don't think he's going to get seven years so much as I think there's no way in hell he only gets four, short of an undisclosed injury. The top guys almost always get their money in the end. Chris Davis, Max Scherzer, Justin Upton (2 winters ago) all got theirs, and I know it was a while back at this point but Prince Fielder got his too. I can't remember a top guy ever really falling short of expectations, even when they've gone past MLK day without signing. Yoenis Cespedes is probably the closest. Last year he was supposed to get around 5/125 last winter and signed for 4/110. Although he signed that deal fairly early, he wasn't waiting around for two months, so it's possible that he just liked shorter term/higher AAV. IT makes a little more sense for a position player, and as a team that is not at all concerned about the luxury tax it worked out well for the Mets too. There's a lot of smoke coming out of Darvish's camp right now. My guess is that it's more about them trying to wrap things up rather than that them being desperate. I wouldn't be surprised if he has his 6/150 offer in hand, and his agents are basically doing a lap around the league once more to make sure they're not leaving any money on the table.

I'd say 7 years is far far more likely than 4. This winter's been weird, but everyone who has signed has more or less gotten what they were supposed to, or even a little more. The over/Under on Darvish's contract coming into the winter was 6/150 or so, Jon Lester money. I still think the absolute low end of what he'll sign for is Johnny Cueto money: 6/130 with an opt out. Yu's the top guy on the market, he's going to get his. The guys who should really worry are the players who play at a position where there's only 1-2 teams looking for someone: Lucroy, Moustakas, Morrison, Frazier, Holland, and Hosmer. Hosmer will do fine, because for some reason both the Padres and Royals love him, but I'd guess 2-3 of the other names I mentioned are the ones who are going to suffer. Everyone else will be fine, teams and agents are just playing chicken right now.

nah Yeah, I have no interest in Cobb (or Arrieta or Lynn for that matter) anymore. Our rotation needs depth, and it would be realy nice to have another guy I feel comfortable having start a playoff game. For me, Darvish is the only guy left who checks that second box. Cobb is depth, but he's not a guy I'd be happy to have start a playoff game. Realistically, he's Jason Hammel, a league averagish starter who can look like he's a lot more than for a stretch or two each year. There are a few nuggets of Statcast data that suggest there's something more there, but if they were all that compelling he'd have $80 million in hand already. If we're signing a guy who I'm going to scream at Joe Maddon to get a reliever up for any time a guy gets on base, why give him multiple years? Give me the best third tier starter willing to settle for a one year deal. In the regular season, the difference between that guy and Cobb isn't going to be more than about a win, because even if you choose wrong and that guy is running a 5.50 ERA, you can trade for someone boringly competent like Brandon McCarthy to stop the bleeding. My choice for that guy is Jaime Garcia, but maybe you like Chris Tillman, or Andrew Cashner, or Jason Vargas, or Clayton Richard, etc. Darvish is appealing because he's a legit star. The rotation's actually in decent shape though, so if we're not adding a star, I think the play mostly revolves around minimizing downside risk. Get a decent backend type and let our all world defense make them look good. Cobb and Chatwood were an either/or proposition for me this winter. Both have upside, both look like solid 3rd/4th starter types, and we needed to sign at least one guy to a multi-year deal so that we don't have to worry about turning over 40%+ of our rotation again next winter.

A glass half full read of what's happening with all this might be that Yu and the Cubs are really close to putting pen to paper and Yu''s reps are trying one last time to get someone else to swoop in and blow them away with an offer.

I'll believe Darvish isn't getting 6 years when I see it. For all the worry about this year's FA market, all the guys who have signed have gotten what they're supposed to have gotten. As the best guy available I doubt Yu will have to settle.

I put zero faith in this guy but I would guess that at this point this is the kind of thing they're haggling over. I kind of took the Duensing signing as a signal that the FO knew what the upper bounds of Darvish's price would be (e.g. Darvish's camp was asking for $25 per year). I could see the two sides having a rough agreement in place, say 6/150, but still needing to figure out things like a NTC, when to place any opt-out(s), get a physical done, etc. That would also jive with that Brewers insider and the sudden pessimism coming from Twins folks.

Yeah I think Santana gets you someone nice, but a tier below the Duffy/Salazar/Fulmer types. I think an Odorizzi or a Kendall Graveman or someone of that ilk. Actually the A's in general make a lot of sense. Santana for any non-Manaea starter they have looks about right.

I apologize of this is too NSFW (I assume since it is just a link to Deadspin it's fine?), but has this board been made aware of this little number yet?

I actually, before these moves, felt like the Brewers were closer to .500 than Fangraphs' projections gave them credit for. However, even if/when they sign Cobb or trade for someone comparable, I think they're still a little worse than the Cardinals, who themselves are probably 5 games worse than us. I think we'll have to go cheap in the 5th starter spot AND there needs to be a major SP injury for me to actually get nervous about the division. If we sign Darvish it's over short of some Homer at Bat caliber series of unfortunate events.

This news in a vacuum sucks. This news, in the context of that Brewer's insider saying pretty definitively that this would happen and that we were getting Darvish, is good news.

Agreed, but his election helps tremendously with the backlog. Rivera and Halladay are locks to get in on the first ballot next year. Edgar will also get in since it's his last year. Hoffman getting in and more importantly getting out od the way makes it more likely a fourth makes it goes in next year as well, Mussina maybe?

I'm digging into Darvish's numbers and it's better than I realized. So by Fangraphs and BR, Yu last year was very good but not quite back to the ace level he established pre-TJ. However, if you look at BP's numbers, which take into account a bunch or extra stuff like framing and quality of competition, he was the 9th best starter in the league, worth 5.2 wins. Also, his velocity post TJ is about an MPH higher than it was pre-TJ, which probably bodes well for how he'll age.

[tweet] [/tweet] $150 million isn't a number we've seen in a while, even though it's what was expected coming into the winter. I'm gonna laugh when after all the hand wringing about collusion and baseball's broken economy this winter most guys end up right around where they were expected to be.

Gimenez was also the Twins' designated "Position Player who pitches in blowouts" so this is about as fun as a minor league deal to a catcher can be.

Ademan (#78) and Alzolay (#84) made Law's list. I think those two plus Caratini are guys who could make any given Top 100 but are not good enough to say they definitely should.

Yeah I'm not too worried about the midseason stuff. Maybe some deal requires you to throw in an extra back of the Top 30 type prospect in exchange for salary relief. It shouldn't be too hard. I do hope this means our big signing is close. I assume they did this because they knew approximately what Darvish/Cobb/whomever are going to cost. Otherwise they would have held off, right?

I think we needed another lefty so I expected someone Duensing-esque closer to ST. I'm mostly just surprised it's for 2 years.

I like Eloy a lot, but his likely outcome is basically Schwarber: a good but not amazing hitter with little defensive value. That's a really nice player, but he has to REALLY hit to be worth losing sleep over.