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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    It's really surpring to me that he's only the 30th best pitcher in terms of fWAR in that stretch, at 1.1. Quintana is 13th at 1.7. Verlander is the one that is most confusing. I get all the home runs, but look at these two lines. Darvish: 62 IP, 11.32 K/9, 0.44 BB/9, 1.89 HR/9, .246 BABIP, 44.2% GB%, 23.6% HR/FB, 3.19/3.85/2.89 1.1 fWAR Verlander: 64.1 IP, 13.4 K/93, 1.12 BB/9, 1.40 HR/9, .268 BABIP, 32.9% GB%, 14.9% HR/FB, 2.38/2.71/2.76, 2.3 fWAR Verlander is better, but over twice as good? It's 1000% the dongs. fWAR is basically FIP times batters faced times some constant. By xFIP, Yu's basically as good as ever right now, but by FIP he's still fairly middling because of the dongs. I generally am a big xFIP guy unless a guy has years of over/underperforming it, but Yu's doing weird enough stuff right now that I'm not super confident in that belief.
  2. Bertz
    Clearing your cookies/cached data might work. I do. It comes back. I don’t know the source unless it’s clicking on some asshat’s tweets when someone is making fun of them. If it keeps coming back then they are actually meaning to target you. You've probably clicked on enough conservative things out of morbid curiosity that Google thinks you're actually conservative (or you share an IP with a staunch conservative?). Go to your Ad Settings in your Google account and remove anything related to conservative politics. That ought to do the trick, though it might take a few weeks.
  3. Bertz
    While I think you're mostly right the window is more like three years: last year/this year/next year. After year 4 for a young QB is generally when the honeymoon is over. If he's good that's when you have to start paying him, if he's not good that's when you can feel pretty confident he's not going to get any better. Plus on the defensive side, our team control on Jackson and Floyd runs through next year.
  4. Bertz
    Graveman was a guy I really wanted prior to the 2018 season. Obviously you worry about any guy coming off of TJ, especially when they weren't exactly a star prior, but I agree I love him as depth.
  5. Bertz
    The only good argument for this terrible signing. Assuming Morrow isn't also an avid Trump supporter IIRC Morrow is pretty vocally liberal. It's basically him and Sean Doolittle.
  6. Bertz
    This is not a comp but purely a discussion of aesthetics, but that looks very Bellinger-y
  7. Bertz
    McCutchen is probably the best comp except for the age component. That probably gets him to something like the 4/62 Jersey threw out there. While I'm hesitant to look at anything regarding payroll optimistically, they should have enough flexibility to do a deal like that and make a few moves for the pen even if payroll only increases modestly.
  8. Bertz
    Morrow was a legit Kimbrel/Jansen/Chapman style super-reliever in 2017, and passed the eye test too. It sucks it worked out this way, but the high risk of this happening is why he got ~$25 million instead of ~$75 million.
  9. Bertz
    I know baseball loves to cut its nose to spite its face in the international department, but is there really concern that there's going to be less than a year of lead time between an International draft being announced and implemented?
  10. Bertz
    I think Theo is pretty clearly still a well above average GM. That being said, the difference between the best and worst FO's is shrinking rapidly, and in our market we'll always be able to attract someone from the top half of the pool. Given that, I completely understand If someone wanted to kick Theo to the curb as penance for the Russell stuff.
  11. Bertz
    From my quick perusal of the play logs it also looks like 8 of 13 balls in play were on the ground (62%)
  12. Bertz
    [tweet] [/tweet]
  13. Bertz
    If anything Cowherd saying something makes it less likely to happen a la Bob Nightengale
  14. Bertz
    I tend to throw out whatever a college guy does the summer after being drafted, good or bad. On the one hand the Northwest league is a substantial step down from the SEC/PAC 10 so they should dominate, but on the other hand these guys are usually horsefeathering GASSED after having started their seasons in February.
  15. Bertz
    I would guess, as someone in the comments says, indefinitely here is literally "we're still figuring out how long you're suspended for" and less "you're going away for a long time, pal."
  16. Bertz
    Next year I think. I think this was a direct concession to get to the 26th man on the roster.
  17. Bertz
    Pretty balanced schedule, no really light stretches but no brutal ones either. *Maybe* mid April through Mid May if the Padres do a bunch this winter?
  18. Bertz
    *sigh*
  19. Bertz
    With the very obvious exception of God Mode Jake I feel like this hot streak Darvish is in is one of the best we've seen from a Cub in a long while
  20. Bertz
    This Roquan highlight is so fun I want to take it back behind the middle school and get it pregnant
  21. Bertz
    Nice Yeah, right now the only lock for the bullpen is Kimbrel. Chatwood would currently be slated for the 5th starter spot, while like you said Strop, Cishek, Kintzler and Holland are FAs. Phelps has a really cheap club option so he'll probably be around, and Kyle Ryan would *really* need to go sideways to get left out. That leaves five open spots. I'd guess we fill two or three via FA, and two or three get filled via the Iowa shuttle. My guess is we open the season with something like this CL - Kimbrel SU - High cost relief option (e.g. Will Smith) SU - Ryan MR - Phelps MR - Lower cost FA option (e.g. resign Cishek or Strop) MR - Iowa Shuttle (Wick as of right now) MR - Iowa Shuttle (Underwood as of right now) LR - Kendall Gravemen or similar reclamation project SP
  22. Bertz
    Reasons for optimism regarding the Bears' schedule, as we face four of these five teams. At the end of the day it may end up being more tough than brutal.
  23. Bertz
    Spot in rotation next year? Yeah I would guess he gets the fifth starter spot next year to open the year. I also would think he's done enough to be fairly easy to trade this winter, though with Montgomery also gone they probably want to keep the depth.
  24. Bertz
    I don't think it's an amazing farm system given the lack of blue chippers and with how much of the really fun stuff is still only in A ball, but I think it's laughable that this is a bottom 5 farm. I fully expect it to "magically" move into the teens in November when outlets redo their rankings.
  25. Bertz
    Brach was probably going to be around next year too. He has/had a player option for like $3.5 mil I think. But glad he’s gone and we’re not letting such a small amount of money keep guys around. I actually think that was a mutual option that had to be picked up by both sides. I will check on that. It's kind of like what Kintzler had, where the Cubs had a team option for one amount, and Brach had a player option for a lesser amount. Less money than Kintzler, but I do think we're going to be out of ~$2M next year, which is probably why his leash was so long.
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