Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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It's a few things: - Signing bonuses aren't always linear. They're agreed to when kids are 14/15, and finalized at 16. Sometimes the $1M 14 year old develops a little better than the $3M one. So while the huge money kids are almost always still the top kids in the class, the order can get fudged a bit in that intervening period - When going from amateur to professional ball, you change to an almost entirely new ecosystem of scouts. That's how you get like Nico Hoerner going from being a 40th-ish ranked draft prospect to a top 100 overall guy after 6 weeks in short season ball - In this case specifically, the only place they've been seen since March was the instructional league in October. Longenhagen lives near there, so luckily he has actually seen 3/4 of these guys in the last few months. So while I typically value Keith Law's or Jim Callis' opinion more, I think Eric's opinion holds much more weight currently
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It works both ways right? You can't say that them being in our top 10 is an indictment of our system and at the same time not acknowledge that not being in the Padres top 10 isn't an insult. This is precisely why some outlets have moved to the Future Value model, to make these comparisons more apples to apples.
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The trade looks MUCH better in this light. Eric has Preciado as a Top 100 guy, better than Ed Howard. Yeisson Santana is a 45 FB guy, meaning he'd be in the top 10 in a typical system. Ismael Mena is on the 40/45 line, depending on how reports of whether he can stick in CF shake out. It's appalling how far away all these guys are, but it's looking more like the raw value is there at least.
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At this point, I think the focus turns to putting yourself in the best possible position for the trade deadline 1. Hang on to all the walk-year guys. Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel...odds are one or two of these guys will resume being stars, and bring back far more in July than the lot of them would bring back right now 2. Pillow Contracts. Whether it's James Paxton, Kirby Yates, Corey Kluber, etc., there are several previously high-end pitchers looking to re-establish themselves. Use the saved Darvish money on a few of them, and build them back up with the magical pitching infrastructure. For example, MLBTR predicted $10M for Paxton and $5M for Yates. That'd cleanly work out to Paxton + Yates + Davies equalling Darvish's salary. Now you've got another shot or two at stars to deal at the deadline Unless the team wildly exceeds expectations, I think you have to sell come July. Being on pace for 88 wins and the division is not enough to deviate. You blew that option when you traded Darvish for teenagers. 2022 is pretty much a clean slate. Payroll right now would project at ~$80M. And next year's FA class is killer. You've got to put yourself in a position for that to matter.
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It doesn't really make it okay, but between this trade, Ed Howard, and the last two IFA classes the Cubs now have a pretty absurd collection of teenagers. Like holy crap. But it's wild that this trade didn't have a better headliner. Like I'd have been pretty fine with Cronenworth or Morejon plus these four. But this is just so little near term value. This is not the "step back in 2021 to take two steps forward in 2022" deal that I was bracing for.
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By MLB Pipeline, it's probably okay value. All 4 guys are 45 FB guys, meaning they'd be top 10 in a normal system (keep in mind the Padres have an incredibly deep system). Though you still have the whole quantity vs. quality argument. By FG's values though, there's not really any sort of justification. Two 45s, a 40, and a 35. If it'd been Cronenworth and these four guys I'd be slightly disappointed, but this is horsefeathering risky as hell. The Cubs must REALLY trust their scouts.
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We still haven't seen Myers as part of the deal from any of the verified folks. Like he was inferred earlier, but hasn't been sourced.
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Let's say this is right. This is the roster as it currently stands: SP - Hendricks, Davies, TBD, Alzolay, Mills C - Willson, TBD 1B - Rizzo 2B - Cronenworth, Bote SS - Baez, Vargas 3B - Bryant LF - Myers, Ervin CF - Happ, TBD RF - Heyward (I assume Nico starts at Iowa, and Vargas is just keeping his spot warm) Bullpen - Kimbrel + 7 guys Payroll would be roughly flat with where it was prior to non-tendering Schwarber. I'd REALLY hope Morejon is one of the prospects. There's probably enough money left over to address that open starter spot OR the two open bench spots, not both.
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Let's say the deal is for the Myers, Cronenworth, and prospects package as is being inferred. This would presumably be the lineup next year: LF/CF - Happ 3B - Bryant SS - Baez 1B - Rizzo DH - Myers 2B - Cronenworth C - Contreras RF - Heyward CF/LF - TBD (Grossman?) That'll play. But uhhh, let's not look at the rotation
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Complain about your fantasy team that no one cares about here
Bertz replied to UMFan83's topic in Fantasy Sports
I was up 25 in my Fantasy championship going into last night's game. I had Henry and Corey Davis, he had Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. I figured I would have rather have had his two guys, but 25 was plenty of cushion. Oops -
25-year old Korean SS Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
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Re: Wil Myers http://www.mlb.com/amp/news/analyzing-2020-mlb-breakout-hitters.html
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I could be wrong, but I'd imagine the Padres are going to pay a decent amount of it. Possibly, but two years of Wil Myers, even if cheap, isn't overly valuable to us after trading one of the best pitchers in baseball. I think the point is to essentially buy additional prospects. The Cubs have almost nothing on the books next year if Darvish is dealt. ~$40M in guaranteed money, plus another ~$40M in potential between arb guys and Kimbrel's option. So if we take on Myers, get some of his '21 salary paid down, and get an extra Ryan Weathers type prospect out of it, it's a Win-Win IMO. Edit: I realize it's not clear above, but "next year" means 2022 in this context
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I think Brett's probably right on the money here
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Hoooooolllllllllyyyyyyy Horsefeathers I'd assume Cronenworth comes back this way, hence them getting Kim as well? Maybe Wil Myers too? Otherwise that's ~$40M outlaid in 24 hours. We knew they had some room this offseason but I didn't think it was nearly that much.
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!?!
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25-year old Korean SS Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm hoping this is a matter of evaluation and not financials. Mooney and Sharma's piece this morning indicated that there is currently *some* money to play with this winter. At least the Kyle Schwarber money. So I'm hoping that our FO is concerned with Kim's ability to handle velocity (Keith Law is I know), or has some other issue with him from a scouting perspective. -
Twins, Angels, and Blue Jays I think make a ton of sense. Each has a strong farm, a need at the front of the rotation, and indications are they have at least one big money move in them. Twins especially, as they finished second for him in FA. Phillies and Yankees maybe if the right set of dominos fall this offseason? Maybe the Giants try to compete a year early?
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The Padres are so damn fun I feel like this is bad for the Cubs' wheeling and dealing though. Padres were probably the most fun Darvish option, and the Rays made the most sense for a catcher. And neither team was a threat to fill their need through FA. So now it's basically wait for FA to play out and then take advantage of whoever is left holding a bag of money.
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NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread
Bertz replied to NOLA's topic in Other Sports
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I think I've come around to trading Darvish instead of KB: - Darvish is probably the most valuable player on the roster - Even so, Darvish's contract and NTC make him complicated to move in-season - I tend to think "age is just a number" for pitchers. But still, keeping a 34 year old pitcher because you're banking on value in his age 35 & 36 seasons is probably fraught - Darvish is one of 3 players on the roster making real money beyond this year. Moving him now gives you more of a "fresh start" after 2021 (this is not necessarily a positive obviously) - Bryant has fairly modest value right now, but with his history a hot two months will give him a ton by July If the only plan for competing this year is "be less bad than the competition" then you might as well cash in on your lone superstar. Trade Darvish and a catcher this winter, trade at least one of Bryant/Kimbrel in July, extend Baez or Rizzo, and try to put an actual good team out there again in 2022.