Bertz

Tom Hatch pulled after two hitless innings, possible hug watch.

All three places that do framing stats also peg him as slightly above average there too. He's really awesome depth behind Willson.

I'm cool with this. Even though they're being much smarter with him than last year, he's still got the 3rd most innings caught in the league, extra rest can't hurt.

Castro is a really good comp. I'd expect a few more walks but that's not enough for me to quibble. Also, Law's generally a tools first guy. He's balanced out a bit more the past few years, but that's still what he leans on. Like he's already expressed that he's pretty bullish on Davis, and he was always the high man on Gallo (smart) and Lew Brinson (whoops!)

Yu since May 15th: 66.1 IP 17 BB (6.3%) 75 K (27.8%) 12 HR 4.34/4.24/3.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP I don't want to be like "yay he's fixed he's just been juiced balled" because frankly he's a guy who's always allowed a few more dongs than you'd expect. That being said, conservatively I think Yu has worked his way back to league average and realistically a decent bit more.

2 Observations from his event just now: 1. The picture on the Redbull can looks almost nothing like him 2. He wasn't able to hit any balls across the river so obviously his shoulder is horsefeathered again

Agreed on the first part, but where are you getting the second part? KB seems pretty solid against changeups this year, and over his career. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=7&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=7,d I'll admit it's pretty anecdotal. I looked at those stats and it doesn't show up as an obvious effect. I *think* it's because he can hit the hell out of a B- changeup but suffers disproportionately as the quality improves, but I don't have rock solid evidence to back that up.

I'm generally in the "clutch is noise" camp, however I think there is some reason it may persist in the numbers even if it's not some moral failing: 1. Good hitters are always going to suffer because managers are managing to them. For example, you'll bring in the closer in the 8th to face Kris Bryant. You're not going to bother for Daniel Descalso 2. Related to #1, if a guy has a very specific way to get him out, he's going to have a wider gap. For KB, he's generally pretty susceptible to righties with good changeups. Managers can exploit that in high leverage situations in a way that they can't as easily for an Anthony Rizzo (who I've never noticed as having such a specific weakness)

Not to belabor the point, but when you say that you wish McLeod was better at later round picks, someone mentions Bote, and you go "woah woah woah not THAT late" you're absolutely moving the goalposts. Also, if we're going to discount Cease, which honestly I don't think is completely unfair, you have to do the same with McCullers, Ruiz, and Daz Cameron. They were acquired the exact same way. Finally, even ignoring any nitpicking about who should and should count and blah blah blah, the Cards and Astros are two teams. Unless there are like 20 teams you can do this with, it's really hard to be concerned about McLeod. We know he's very good on day 1, so unless he's noticeably below average after that point, he's going to net out as very good at his job, particularly given the extra weight those top picks carry. Oh, and that also ignores IFA, where we're also a top 5ish team.

This is exactly the point, it's more or less a dice roll. Bote was far from being alone in that regard, that draft also had college draftees in rounds 15+ like Leone, Strahm, Oberg, Suter, and Matt Duffy meet the 2 WAR criteria. That doesn't mean those teams are especially shrewd, but it emphasizes how much failure and randomness there is once you get beyond the top 25-50 picks. So I'm talking more about rounds 2-10 including the supplemental 1st round (where you have more control and higher expectations) when I'm talking about the bad results and disappointment with McLeod and the scouting department. Yeah, rounds 11+ and beyond are pretty much a crapshoot, but you should be able to find good players/pitchers after the 1st round with a sound process/good scouting. Other teams find plenty of good players in those rounds. I can definitely tell you scouts inside the organization are disappointed with their results in those rounds (2-10) and expect more. This is some serious goalpost moving. Regardless, who are these teams really cleaning up in 2-10? McLeod's first three drafts produced Cease and Godley in the 2-10 range, with Steele, Norwood, and Underwood each still having modest reliever potential. I haven't gone through all 30 teams, but I'd guess that's pretty average. A typical draft nets a team a solid regular plus 1-2 role players. Expecting the team to hit on multiple guys in the 2-10 range each year is setting yourself up for massive disappointment.

He's also been blistering at the plate for over a month now. Since June 2nd (123 PAs) - .345/.369/.593, 21.1% K rate, 170 wRC+ That will definitely play as a 19/20 year old in full season ball. The talent that got the rave reviews in AZ is finally starting to show. Between him, Davis, and Roederer I'm loving South Bend right now. Add in Nelson Velazquez hopefully coming off the IL soon and Strumpf probably a few weeks from joining them, and that's a heck of a cohort of guys at the same development level.

Nova's approach at this point is "huck it over the plate and hope the BABIP gods bail me out." A few weeks ago they did, but I wouldn't give too much credit when a guy walks 2 and K's 1 over five innings. He's just a guy who came into that game with a 6 something ERA, who actually "deserves" a 5 something ERA, and finally got some positive regression.

Fun with Arbitrary Endpoints: Ian Happ since June 26th: .302/.412/.558, 15.7% BB. 21.6% K Even though in a perfect world I'd probably want another few weeks of this before bringing him back up, I'd like him to rejoin the team coming out of the ASB. The bench very clearly needs to be addressed at the deadline, and so I'd like to see a few weeks of Robel and New Happ to better understand what exactly needs to be added.

Yeah, Morel's killing it right now. That line is a 120 wRC+ in the MWL, and given his age (turned 20 two weeks ago) and defensive chops all the better.

Wait wait wait, Cam Sanders can touch 98? I thought he was just some generic dude. The numbers still leave a lot to be desired but good to know that there's something there worth paying attention to.

More pitchers need to be pushed onto the reliever track IMO. I think the best outcomes for Lange and Little at this point are becoming relievers, and seeing if their stuff/command improves in shorter outings. Underwood looked okay at times last year, but the command may never be good enough even as a reliever. The pitching depth is definitely improved, but it's mostly #4 or #5 starter stuff and potential and low-leverage reliever roles for this group. We don't have the high upside stuff of those pitchers in the Braves' system (with Marquez and Thompson being the exceptions). If after the past few years of focus on pitching via the draft, the farm system can only yield a crop of #4 or #5 at best pitching prospects - who’s head should roll besides McLeod’s? This can’t be their desired outcome. A few things on McLeod: 1. As unpredictable as pitchers are, most frontline guys are still taken in the top ~50 picks, and the Cubs have really only had four pitchers taken that high in the McLeod era: Pierce Johnson, Little, Lange, and Jensen. The Braves, in contrast, had 6 such guys just from 2015-2017. So while other teams have bigger/better stockpiles, they've also expended far more resources in building those stockpiles. 2. There's an argument that the team has fixed this problem already. The 2016-2018 drafts have produced most of the good names in that list. In particular, the 2018 draft with Kohl Franklin and Riley Thompson, is very exciting IMO. 3. I used this metaphor during the offseason but even if you think McLeod is and always will be ass at drafting and developing pitchers, there's a good argument that canning him would be "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" given his ability to find and develop bats. As much as I'd love a better hitter/pitcher balance, at the end of the day it's more important that the farm is good rather than balanced.

More pitchers need to be pushed onto the reliever track IMO. I think the best outcomes for Lange and Little at this point are becoming relievers, and seeing if their stuff/command improves in shorter outings. Underwood looked okay at times last year, but the command may never be good enough even as a reliever. The pitching depth is definitely improved, but it's mostly #4 or #5 starter stuff and potential and low-leverage reliever roles for this group. We don't have the high upside stuff of those pitchers in the Braves' system (with Marquez and Thompson being the exceptions). I could not disagree more. Pitchers are lottery tickets, today more than ever. Making a guy a reliever significantly lowers the potential payout on any of those tickets. You do eventually hit the point with most guys where you have to change tracks, but generally it's due to health or 40 man implications. Little and Lange are 22 and 23 respectively, and aren't Rule 5 eligible until December of 2020. There's no reason to convert either right now except an overreaction to their draft positions IMO.

While it's not exactly the Braves of the past couple years, this is really good. It's also over the last month pushed Underwood and De La Cruz into multi inning reliever roles, where early returns have been strong.

Yeah I'm a bit worried about this too, since he gets so few groundballs. That being said he's running a 26.1% popup rate, which is absurd and should insulate him a good bit more than a typical guy running a crummy groundball rate.

I really would have preferred Schwarber to go the other way there

This is good to see, especially because PFF's grades HATE Trubisky so that's a testament to how much they like the rest of the roster.

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