Bertz

How are you getting to $200 mil going in 2021 with just internal guys? Spotrac has us at $94 right now. That doesn’t include the minimum $10 on Lester but includes Descalo’s $3.5 team option so let’s call it $100 mil before arbitration. We don’t have $100 mil in arbitration going in to next year, do we? Seems like that number is closer to $50-60. To clarify, I'm talking LT numbers. So Spotrac's 95, ~15 for Insurance, Lester's 15, and then all that arb money (~25 for Bryant, ~15 for Javy, ~12 for Schwarber, ~7 for Willson, and then odds and ends like Happ in his first arb year). I'll post a screengrab of my spreadsheet when I get back on that laptop if you want to see in detail.

Since MLBTR put out their Arb numbers, I've been playing with salary for the next few offseasons, and next offseason looks really tight. I have payroll right around $200M already if we exercise Lester's option (more on that in a minute). And that's BEFORE committing additional money this winter. That leads me to a couple of conclusions: - We're probably going to want to pick up Lester's 2021 option. It has a $10M buyout, which means in essence it's only a $15M commitment. If he's solid this year that's probably worth it to avoid having 3 open rotation spots next winter - We basically have to trade for a cost controlled starter some time in the next 18 months. I like our MiLB SP options more than most, but even I don't see 2-3 quality SP's emerging prior to OD 2021 - We do need at least one internal guy to emerge though. Ideally a prospect like Alzolay, but even hitting on Graveman or someone in that vein would be adequate - So many of the position players being in arb means their prices are escalating quickly. When looking at additions this winter, targets who replace an arb guy are ideal - All this emphasis on young pitching means improving our framing would be especially impactful Putting this all together, and I'm firmly on the Willson for a young starter train. TT threw out Willson to the A's for Luzardo and I think that is absolutely perfect. Here's my current plan: - Willson for Luzardo + Treinen - Sign Yasmani Grandal 4/64 - Sign Shogo Akiyama 4/32 - Trade Chatwood for salary relief - Sign Will Smith 3/39 CF - Akiyama 3B - Bryant 1B - Rizzo SS - Javy LF - Schwarber C - Grandal RF - Heyward 2B - Nico BN - Bote, Happ, Vic, Almora, Descalso SP - Yu, Kyle, Q, Jon, Luzardo With Lester's age, Yu's injury history, Luzardo's lack of innings, and the fact that we need to evaluate options for 2021, I would plan to use a 6th starter for much of the year Pen - Kimbrel, Smith, Treinen, Wick, Wieck, Ryan, Underwood, Mills Treinen's a little risky considering we're already banking on a Kimbrel bounce back, but he was so good prior to 2019 and his velo is fine, so I'm good with it.. Underwood's spot is likely the Iowa shuttle, but he gets first crack since he's out of options.

This most recent wave with Boone, Cora, etc. has been really strong in the early going. That being said, the first wave of these guys, Robin Ventura, Mike Matheny, Brad Ausmus, was kind of a disaster. I'm mostly with you on whoever we get probably being fine, but there is some risk. Feels like the quality of the front office is a pretty clear dividing line there. Absolutely. I'm also sure there were some lessons learned from that first wave. Like most of those early guys had no coaching/FO experience beyond their playing careers, whereas for the new wave I think only Boone is like that.

This most recent wave with Boone, Cora, etc. has been really strong in the early going. That being said, the first wave of these guys, Robin Ventura, Mike Matheny, Brad Ausmus, was kind of a disaster. I'm mostly with you on whoever we get probably being fine, but there is some risk.

There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense 1B - Rizzo 3B - Rendon RF - Bryant LF - Schwarber SS - Javy C - Willson 2B - Happ CF - Nico BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp Would Happ in CF and Nico at 2b be better? I’m on board with platooning Happ/Hoerner/Heyward between CF and 2B. Vs righties Heyward starts in CF with Happ and Nico splitting the starts at 2b. Happ in CF and Nico at 2B vs lefties. I would imagine if we played a game today that Happ in CF and Nico at 2b would be better. But I think with Nico's speed he'd be a really good CF within a fairly short amount of time. Happ seems to be in a weird spot where he's not really good anywhere despite above average athleticism, but he's also not too bad anywhere either.

This is an EXTREMELY deep cut and I love it

[tweet] [/tweet] I don't have a BP subscription, but it sounds like the ball has been de-juiced here in the playoffs. If someone with a sub can report back on how de-juiced it is that would be nice. (i.e. is it still fairly juiced like 2015-2017, or mostly normal like 2018 and pre 2015?)

Fangraphs has Corbin-Scherzer-Strasburg in their playoff odds right now, but I don't think it's been announced. Wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez gets game one considering Corbin pitched more than an inning out of the pen last night.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joonlee/status/1182150582997520384[/tweet]

There's a real part of me that wants to build a 6 run per game offense and just kinda figure it out as we go along with the pitching and defense 1B - Rizzo 3B - Rendon RF - Bryant LF - Schwarber SS - Javy C - Willson 2B - Happ CF - Nico BN - Vic, Bote, Heyward, Descalso, Kemp

This is great. To expand on this, here's what we're looking at for Luxury Tax purposes: Position Players ($92.0M) C - Willson (4.5), Vic (0.6) 1B - Rizzo (14.5) 2B - Bote (3), Kemp (0.6), Descalso (2.5) SS - Javy (9.3), Russell (5.1) 3B - KB (18.5) LF - Schwarber (8) Happ (0.6) CF - Almora (1.8) RF - Heyward (23) Rotation ($84.0M) SP - Jon (25.9), Yu (21), Kyle (13.9) Q (10.5), Chatwood (12.7) Bullpen ($19.0M) CL - Kimbrel (14.3) SU - Ryan (1.1), Wick (0.6) MR - Wieck (0.6), Underwood (0.6), Norwood (0.6), Maples (0.6) LR - Mills (0.6) Other ($16.8M) 40 Man - 2.3 Insurance 14.5 Also possibly some Brach/Morrow money? Grand Total - $211.8M Russell seems a fairly safe bet to be a goner, but also there's probably a little bit missing here and there from this (guys making more than the minimum, Brach/Morrow, etc.), so let's say $210 for a a nice round number. Last year I believe we opened at around $230 and ended at $240 after Kimbrel and Castellanos.

Theo specifically mentioned leadoff, contact, and athleticism during his end of season presser. Considering how few domestic options check all three of those options there might be something here. Shogo, Castellanos, and someone to throw into the mix at 2B would be a pretty solid offseason on the position player front.

No kidding. Starting him on short rest is a bad idea on its own but when you add in screwing up the rotation for the next series it’s even worse. It was a no brainer Every time. He manages to be wrong every time. It's honestly astonishing.

I really really like this, assuming he's still a legit CF (and his sprint speed is steady, so he *should* be). I do wonder what the Rays would want in return though. A Contreras/Pham swap works for us, but their hard on for framing has me skeptical of their interest.

Honestly, while I like Ross I'm hoping that whoever they go with is completely unaffiliated with the team. I think even if he's a hardass, Ross's connection to 2016 is going to make it impossible to completely move on from that sense of complacency. I wonder if Eric Chavez is an option. He's very much in the mold of the guys from the last few years who really excelled. He did the elder statesman thing his last few years in the league, he's done the special assistant to the GM thing, he's done a little TV, and he even managed a little bit in the minors in 2018. If you're looking for an Alex Cora type, I think he's near the top of the list.

Bradley's a solid option for CF, but he has to come as a ton tender IMO. He's set to make $10M+ via arb this winter, and he's too limited and our budget too tight to justify that. Another guy on the Bosox I find intriguing is Nate Eovaldi. I generally like him as a bounceback candidate, and with the Red Sox trying desperately to get below the LT I wonder if we could get some relief help in exchange for taking on his salary. Something like Eovaldi and Matt Barnes for not too much in prospects? Gives us a pitching staff of: SP - Yu, Kyle, Q, Jon, Eovaldi CP - Kimbrel SU - Barnes, Wick MR - Ryan, Wieck, Chatwood, Underwood LR - Mills What's nice about Eovaldi specifically is that even if he continues to struggle as a starter like he did in 2019, he's still a fairly safe fallback option in relief (he had a 2.61 FIP on relief this year). I would then probably trade Chatwood at that point and reinvest the 13 million.

Not really sure this tracks when you only have to go as far back as 2018 to see him outperform his FIP thanks to a low BABIP

He got BABIP'd pretty hard plus the juiced ball made it so that the league average ERA was 4.51 this year

On the rotation, something to consider is that we will have a lot more decent options at Iowa than in years past. We're probably looking at an Iowa rotation of: Alzolay Abbott Miller Graveman Rea None of those look like immediately incredible options, but all except Rea (who probably sucks, but did put up a sub 4 ERA in this year's insane PCL) are legitimately interesting, in addition to Mills who will be in the pen. I'd specifically like to call out Graveman, who was a solid league average starter who many people liked as a breakout pick prior to surgery. With his mid 90's sinker and high spin breaking ball looks a lot like Pirates era Charlie Morton. In previous years, we'd have our 5 starters, Montgomery in the pen, and a guy like Rea at Iowa and that was it. So it was imperative that our worst starter was someone who was still pretty reliably okay like Hammel. Now though, if we're not bringing in someone actually good, I want the 5th starter spot to have flexibility. I'd rather be able to cycle through these guys than lock into someone who's going to guarantee us 1 WAR.

Steamer Projected ERA, right now: Teheran - 5.19 Mills - 4.66 Alzolay - 4.22 (as a reliever to be fair) Over 108, 37, and 5 IP? No clue how this works tbh The playing time is probably based on the FG depth charts, which given where we are on the calendar are probably pretty nonsensical. But the rate stats are our best public estimates of guys' current true talent.

Tehran horsefeathering sucks Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular Steamer Projected ERA, right now: Teheran - 5.19 Mills - 4.66 Alzolay - 4.22 (as a reliever to be fair)

If they didn't think he'd provide continuing value they wouldn't have offered him a job and wouldn't have committed to creating the role in the first place. The Cubs clearly wanted this guy and lost out on him to a division rival that also stole the one good pitching mind they had in the organization. It's a loss. I didn't say he'd provide no value, I said I question how much immediate impact he'd provide given that the team isn't starting from scratch. I think the team is far enough along that he couldn't just come in and be like "Do this one weird trick and suddenly you're the Astros." I think if there is a guy out there who could do that, it's probably Brendan Sagara's counterpart from either the Astros or Yankees. That might be why they created the new Director of Pitching position, to have a promotion to offer one of those guys. Also, Derek Johnson was overseeing the minors when they were at their most butt at developing pitchers, so I'm not sure he makes your point very well.

This. So very much this. How many legit new wave pitching gurus are there to pick from? This can't be much different than free agent baseball players. There are only a select few who will actually be very good at the job. Probably not very many. That being said I'm not sure what kind of continuing value he provides beyond being another very intelligent voice in the room. He deserves all the plaudits for innovating in this area, but beyond the very public ways he's moved the industry forward does he provide any other immediate insight? If you have a sub to The Athletic I highly recommend the article from this summer on Brailyn Marquez or the one from a few weeks ago on Ryan, Wieck, and Wick. We're doing a lot of this stuff already, just clearly not as well as the top tier of the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees. If anything I would look to poach guys from those Orgs to move our program forward into that tier, while Boddy's value might lie more in helping team building out this system from scratch.

I think it's about how much of our lineup has the same weakness, the high fastball/low curveballs style that's come in vogue with teams like the Astros. And so if you draw a pitcher who is built in a certain mold (e.g. Go Gonzalez to CW11's point), he can run roughshod through the lineup even if he's not particularly good. This is basically what Happ spent his time in Iowa fixing, and IMO dovetails with Theo's repeated statements about development needing to continue at the MLB level. This is also why we should probably expect Castellanos back, because he gives the lineup a different look. It might also be part of why Almora got such a long leash, because back when he could actually hit he was similarly complimentary in this way to the core part of the lineup.

This. So very much this.