Bertz

I really liked Nick, though I question the dominoes that would need to fall for his fit on the team to not be very awkward

What do you think it would take to get him, TT? I don't have a great feel for it. If you want to be optimistic, Margot has now had 3 full seasons without getting all the way across the line to 2 fWAR, so it's easy to envision the Padres seeing this as his level and being ready to move on. They also have a zillion outfielders so they aren't really creating a huge hole by doing so. On the other hand, a functional position player with 3 years of control and entering prime years isn't nothing, and the Padres are shifting to a competitive stage so any trade will have to 'hurt' in terms of taking players from the MLB team's orbit. The one I've been coming back to the last couple days is the basic framework of Quintana for Margot. On the Cubs end, it fits a lot of what the outward narrative has been about their intent. It's a shake up as it creates more innings to be filled without an immediate solution on the roster, which will force them to rely more on the revamped pitching infrastructure to fill those innings since they aren't going to be bringing in Cole/Strasburg. Margot himself and the pitchers they get to replace Quintana increase the years of control they'll have on the roster, hopefully extending the window. Margot also makes a bit more contact than lots of the roster, although he's no Altuve. From the Padres perspective, Quintana adds durability and stability to a rotation that already has youth(Paddock, Lucchesi) and upside(Richards, Lamet) options. Maybe he's a bit redundant with Davies or they want to aim higher if they add another SP, but it's not a huge stretch to see Quintana as a good fit. Margot isn't so high a price to pay and Quintana not so expensive that it ruins the rest of their offseason plans either. The Padres in general are a very good fit this winter, and I would be surprised if our offseason doesn't run through them at least briefly. They're generally a very good fit for Q, Willson, or Happ, and we're likewise a very good fit for Margot, young pitching, and (likely) one of their catchers. The pitching is the most exciting part. If any team has young pitching they could consider "expendable," it's them. They could give up a Quantrill or a Morejon and still have 6-7 guys they'd happily feature in their rotation. They could give up a Munoz or a Strahm and still have 3-4 high leverage relievers. And they have guys up and down the quality spectrum too, so it could be a small Bote deal just as easy as a larger Contreras deal.

Passan's last line is interesting too: I think it has always made sense logically, but also good to know that the big trade is going to kick off the winter. Probably means we'll see it before the end of the Winter Meetings next week.

The team could probably do: - Willson traded for a few young live ML arms - Willson backfilled via FA (Castro/Avila) - Didi at 2B - A RH bench OF (Souza/Pillar) - A FA reliever (Treinen/Harris) For less than $30M. I could get behind that offseason, especially if they managed a Javy extension in there as well. CF is left unsettled, but with 2B very settled you can throw both Nico and Happ at the position, and I would feel very good about one of them managing to run with it.

Our Addison Russell nightmare is over, and the Cubs are going to try and sneak Danny Hultzen down to Iowa. Everything else is as expected.

Perfect bat-first type for the bench with the new extra roster spot

There are enough 2B candidates that we can be REALLY picky. Like just quickly perusing the FA list I see Solid 2B Options: - Cesar Hernandez - Jonathan Villar - Howie Kendrick - Brock Holt - Scooter Gennett Less Solid 2B Options - Eric Sogard - Brian Dozier - Jonathan Schoop - Yolmer Sanchez - Jose Peraza 3B Options who at one point were and may or may not still be 2B Options: - Jed Gyorko - Wilmer Flores - Brad Miller - Asdrubal Cabrera Trade Options: - Whit Merrifield - Adam Frazier And that's not even counting a few Joe Panik/Logan Forsythe types who would be in a tier below the "less solid" guys but who might be acceptable in a platoon arrangement. It's a definite situation where you place a value on each guy, and that's your line in the sand.

The Future Lineup thing has always been a just-for-fun don't think too hard about it sort of thing. That being said given that my complaint about them the past few years has been sloppiness, it's not super reassuring that they have a bunch of guys who will have long-since been FAs on there.

I don't think he was anyone's Plan A or even Plan B, but still relevant

According to Rosenthal, the Phillies are very likely to non-tender Cesar Hernandez tomorrow

I think he's clearly bad, but I think how well that predicts how bad he'll be going forward is the question. We've seen guys like JT Realmuto, Alex Avila, and Jason Castro go from very bad to very good in a single offseason over the past several years. We've also seen the opposite happen with guys like Lucroy, though age is often a viable explanation for many of those. Personally, my guess is that not enough credit is attributed to the pitchers. Like with Willson for instance, I'd love to see his numbers from the last two years pitching to Yu or Chatwood vs everybody else.

Say what you will about each of these guys in a vacuum, I think they're extremely poor fits on the current roster. Get a real SP you can trust to slide into the rotation, or get a someone with minor league options who can be stashed at Iowa. We already have two guys on the roster who we can't quite trust to be either a starter or a short reliever in Mills and Chatwood. Adding a third guy in that vein is good way to end up with the same sort of bullpen problems we had last year.

Catchers are flying fast, if a Willson trade is going to happen it's likely going to be soon.

Really top notch thread title Looks like Craig Breslow's got his first lump of clay, let's see what he can make out of it.

I certainly don't think the free agent market is fixed, but I think it's looking more and more safe to say it's better than the last two years by a significant margin. Four years from three admittedly fantastic months out of the pen is asinine.

I wouldn't hate Bundy, his velocity has dipped so he's no longer the upside play he was before, but he's a solid average starter at this point who might get a little bump from getting out of the AL East That being said. I would hate trading for Bundy this early. That's a move you settle for in January, not one you make before the Winter Meetings have even kicked off.

According to Ken Rosenthal the A's are looking to cut payroll, so Treinen and Profar are non-tender candidates who could be had for very little prospect-wise.

Yeah I think they're still a good fit, maybe even better now. Zunino's a solid bet to bounce back, but hardly a guarantee. If they acquired Willson, he could split time between Catcher and 1b/DH, where they're currently very left handed. If Zunino is good, that's more time for Willson at a bat-first position, if he's still bad then Willson's the fulltime catcher.

One of the catchers from that second tier is gone. Another positive sign about the FA market though. Knock on wood but every signing to this point has been commensurate with a not-broken FA market.

It was 2.8 fWAR that year and good for a worse wRC+ than Kolten Wong had this year. Also, and admittedly I didn't give him credit for this, he stole 34 bases at 81%. That could be a very good source of hidden value, but he was only 20 for 30 last year and again he's turning 31, so I'm not overly optimistic of him stealing a bunch of bases at a good rate going forward. On his defense, he's a career +1 2B and in 130 games of innings in the OF he's a -4 outfielder, he doesn't have a whole lot to lose. Lastly, his walk rate and plate discipline in general are dramatically worse than Zobrist's, I wouldn't consider them to be comparable skillsets at all. Whit's MUCH better by DRS, +25 at 2B and +3 in the OF. And even most of his poor outfielding is attributed to his arm in RF....he's got a noodle out there. I think that's why I like him more than you. I don't think I disagree with a word you've said on the offensive side of things, but on defense I expect he's a +5 guy at second or center.

Cool cool cool. I thought it was weird that they didn't protect one more guys from the Rule 5 draft, but this is absolutely a worthwhile tradeoff. The Iowa rotation next spring will likely be: Alzolay Abbott Miller Cotton Rea In addition to likely one of Chatwood/Mills in the MLB pen as a long guy. The Cubs finally have starting pitching depth that is not just adequate, but good.

We're like 3 sentences removed from him being called the absolute perfect player to add to this hopefully WS contending roster in 2020. Why is this a crazy ask? Because if he's an above average player the cost should be commensurate with that instead of with a star. His skillset is not so unique as to demand a premium beyond its raw value. In other words, it would be really nice to have a ~2.5 win guy who can cover either 2B or CF, given that there's going to be uncertainty at both spots entering the year. It's not so nice though that I'd pay ~4 win prices.