Bertz

Theo has talked about how he was looking to do some of this stuff last winter but that he couldn't because everyone was coming off of fairly nightmarish 2nd halves. I wonder if the plan two years ago was to trade two of Almora/Ruseell/Happ/Contreras for whatever we needed last winter, stay under the tax for 2019 and have 2020 be the lone over the tax year. But after 2018 that became a laughably implausible plan, so here we are now. To TT's point though that still doesn't explain the Kimbrel signing though, so who horsefeathering knows.

I'm also interested in the fact that this brings the 40 man roster up to 39. I feel like that implies some sort of clarity as to what the upcoming trades are going to look like.

My assumption is that there are more costs than we give credit for in running the team, so their break even point is probably well south of $300M. That being said there are two big caveats there: 1. They definitely pocketed a ton of money from 2012-2015, and haven't turned around and dipped back into that money. They'll point to the renovations but that leads to... 2. A lot of their costs are building up equity. So it's not *really* a loss even of it's not straight up liquid profit So ultimately. I don't *really* care about where that break even point is.

I think primarily to your point it's money. Because of where their respective arb salaries are, a Javy extension likely looks something like 6/110, a KB one more like 8/240. Secondarily, more athletic guys have traditionally shown to age better. Aging curves have shifted wildly the last ~10 years though so admittedly I'm not sure how true that still is.

This is the quote about moving money. From an Eno Sarris article about what the public doesn't understand about working in a FO: Pretty similarly, this is what I expect as a rough outline for the rest of the offseason: - Bryant, Contreras, Q out, young pitching and at least one high upside near the majors position player in - Javy extended - ~$15M spread across 3-4 bench guys - Add an Alex Wood/Colin McHugh type There's variations obviously, but I think that's the rough shape. I think you're right that Castellanos is in if Schwarber gets traded, and like I said a few posts up I think Javy and Q are tied to each other as well.

That’s where I’m at, you at least can see how it works this year if you keep the core and move some margins around. Next year could be tough to really contend regardless if you keep the core or do trades this year with the pitching needs. Trading KB punts this year, effectively, and then leaves next year as a pretty big roll of the dice that one (or more) of these young pitching prospect is actually good and turns out and you’re able to add Mookie to be able to contend. I’m going to let them fill that last slot of the rotation before I sound all the alarms on 2021. Hopefully they find someone that can project out past this year to join Yu and Kyle. From there, you’re replacing Lester and Q. I think people seeing a 2020 contender out of the Cubs aren’t expecting much from Lester anyways, so don’t think it would change much to keep that slot as status quo. Q is a weird case, I’ve been a big defender around here, but I think there’s also a fairly large contingent that want to trade him because they think he’s overpriced at $12m. I know the FA market next year is thin. But you’re looking at $35-40m in salary coming off the books between Lester, Q, and Chatwood. Going to be hard to justify banking that money, but who knows, they’ve proved me wrong before. Weirdly I think Q's fate is tied to Javy. If the team is in line with Javy on an extension, they basically have to trade Q to make the money work (assuming they're keeping to the $208 "cap"). If not, it's more of a matter of being opportunistic. Lester probably depends more on his perfromance than outside factors IMO. He only counts $15M against the "cap" next year. And with at least one rotation spot to fill I think they keep him if he still projects well.

Just discovered this old one: Where The Pit Would Go If There Was a Pit

I'm sure the team looked at Sogard, he's exactly in the mold of what they're looking at for 2B. But there's still half a dozen comparable 2B options out there (and that's just left handed hitters). 2B is not going to be resolved until the trades are figured out, and maybe not even until arb numbers are finalized. Honestly Shogo is the only FA I think has a chance to sign this month, and that's because there aren't other compsrable CFers out there.

This is a great type of guy to have stashed away at Iowa as like your #16 position player. But he is dangerously close to actually meriting a spot on the bench, which goes to show how deeply horsefeathers the team's current depth is.

Yeah this is the thing that needs to be said over and over again regardless of which side of this discussion you're on. Given the implied constraints on payroll, I personally view trading KB as a best path forward. But these constraints are completley artificial and this entire discussion is premised on a false choice put forth by the team's ghoulish owners.

That's a hell of a rotation. Weird to see a Rangers team with great pitching and a questionable offense.

I'm less apoplectic about trading Bryant than most, but man trading KB and then using nearly all of that money on a square peg like Castellanos would be real tough to get behind.

Yup, as long as they’re willing to shuffle through stuff a little more aggressively when guys suck I think there’s a workable and good pen in there. Plus I’d assume we get a bullpen arm in one of these trades that sounds like will happen and/or bring back Strop for cheap or some cheap 1 year vet that’s hanging out there right before ST. I think the reason they weren't aggressive was because no one in the opening day pen besides Carl had minor league options. For that reason I don't want a cheap one year vet holding a roster spot hostage (I also don't want Mills and Chatwood to both make it to ST). Get one more setup type arm from one of the trades, and roll into 2020 with this: Kimbrel Wick Ryan New Guy Chatwood/Mills Megill/Underwood Iowa Shuttle x2 (likely Wieck/Winkler initially)

I continue to think they make a ton of sense for Willson, even with Zunino. Zunino probably sucks, so Willson would be their everyday guy. If Zunino does bounce back, they could use Willson for ~50 games at C and as a good RH bat cycling in at 1B/DH to balance out all those lefties the rest of the time. I also imagine they think they could fix Willson's framing, which is fair since they're really quite good at fixing guys.

He projects via Steamer to a 3.78 ERA in the majors so he might not be nothing?

Trout-Ohtani-Rendon is a fun as hell middle of the order

Rendon to the Angels and Donaldson to the Rangers has to be viewed as the most likely scenario at this point

And would likely cost one of their catchers. Wonder where they'd turn to for a replacement...

I imagine this is the only thing moving because it's a move they're going to make regardless of how their trades go. Like even if they bring in a Margot or a Pache you'd still probably like to have an Akiyama if the price is not prohibitive. You could say the same thing about a bench 2B bat as well, but since there's a dozen of them out there that's likely being back-burnered.

I'd imagine that Rizzo is looking at Paul Goldschmidt and understandably expecting a 9 figure deal. I bet the Cubs are looking at other 1B who have signed extensions two years prior to FA like Ryan Howard and Miggy Cabrera and understandably saying "nah." If Rizzo stays a Cub long term I expect it to be an Aramis Ramirez situation where he hits FA, makes sure no one is going to blow him away with a contract, and then resigns with the Cubs for a slightly team-friendly rate.