Bertz

I'd imagine that Rizzo is looking at Paul Goldschmidt and understandably expecting a 9 figure deal. I bet the Cubs are looking at other 1B who have signed extensions two years prior to FA like Ryan Howard and Miggy Cabrera and understandably saying "nah." If Rizzo stays a Cub long term I expect it to be an Aramis Ramirez situation where he hits FA, makes sure no one is going to blow him away with a contract, and then resigns with the Cubs for a slightly team-friendly rate.

I think there are implications for Chatwood as well. I'd rather have Gausman than Chatwood, but it's not a total slam dunk. Especially since we've seen teams pay out the nose for spin and velocity with guys like Pomeranz, I wonder if this is a sign that Chatwood is not *that* far underwater contractually.

I'll say I'm less offended by the idea of trading KB than I am about getting under the luxury tax. If the FO wants to trade KB and Willson and still run a ~$240M payroll via short term FA's and extensions (Javy and Rizzo?) I can understand that thought process. I would likely disagree with it, but I get it. It's a step back in 2020 to significantly improve the long term health of the roster. But trading KB to cut payroll forces a huge step backward this year for nothing more than lining PTR's pockets. Just incredibly gross.

I highly doubt that. The only way they stay favorites after trading those guys is if they get back quality major leaguers, and if they get back quality major leaguers they aren't getting the prospects necessary to vault into a top 10 system. I'd imagine to TT's point they get guys in the upper minors who can make some level of contribution this year. For example guys like Christian Pache from the Braves or Adrian Morejon from the Padres. They've got a ~5 win projected head start on the division, which is basically what they're giving back in trading those two. As long as they don't just settle for a bunch of A ball kids, the 2020 bump from the new guys and reinvesting the ~20M saved from KB helps offset any remaining moves from the Reds and Cardinals.

They should absolutely not blow it up, but if they did I think they could probably clean the slate and fully stock the farm. There's only 4 guys with guaranteed money beyond 2020: - Heyward - Darvish - Kyle - Kimbrel Heyward's contract is way underwater, but now down to four years left he's probably dealable if you ate ~half. Kimbrel's contract looks bad right now, but I think the industry is willing to give him benefit of the doubt for last year. If he had a good first half he'd be valuable again by July. Darvish and Kyle have positive value (Darvish a little, Kyle a lot). From there looking at trades, it would look a lot like when the White Sox blew it up. I would guess Javy would bring back something akin to the Quintana deal, and Bryant a little less than that. Willson and Rizzo would each net a top 100 guy plus another prospect or two of note, and Schwarber a couple guys in that "just missed" area. All together that's probably a #1 farm and and basically clean books after 2020. That being said I still wouldn't do it. If Theo deals KB and Willson, the Cubs are probably the slight Central favorites in 2020 with a top ~10 farm and Heyward as the only really bad money on the books. A disappointing place to be, but still a pretty good one all things considered. Much better than signing up for 2-3 years of horsefeathers ball IMO.

Ken Rosenthal: This is not the first time Rosenthal has connected the Dodgers to Bryant

https://twitter.com/ByMcCullough/statuses/1204187410361225218

Lawyers are the one profession who procrastinate more than Baseball Executives

Anyone else getting logged out pretty regularly? Today's been especially bad, probably happened a half dozen times.

Do the statheads on this site prefer fSWAG or bSWAG? I like Baseball Prospectus' SWAGP personally

Okay let's put lipstick on this pig. Say PTR is demanding we get under the tax, which means we basically have to trade Bryant. What's the least depressing path forward? Something like this? Trades: - KB to the Braves for Pache, Wright, and Minter (or equivalent) - Contreras+Q to SD for Margot, Munoz, and Morejon - Trade Chatwood (let's say we have to attach Tyson Miller to fully clear his salary) That brings payroll to ~42M under the tax level Signings - Backfill Contreras (~5M for Jason Castro?) - Sign your favorite FA 2B (~7M for Cesar Hernandez?) - Sign a backup 3B type (~5M for Asdrubal Cabrera?) - Sign Treinen or Betances to a 1 Yr Pillow Contract (~10M) - Extend Javy (~10M) Leaves ~5M for the deadline SP - Darvish/Kyle/Lester/Wright/Mills Iowa SP - Morejon/Alzolay/Abbott/Cotton/Rea BP - Kimbrel/Munoz/Treinen/Wick/Ryan/Minter/Iowa Shuttle/LRP (Underwood to start) Lineup - Hernandez/Rizzo/Baez/Schwarber/Bote/Caratini/Heyward/Margot Bench - Cabrera/Happ/Castro/Descalso/Kemp The lineup is....depressing. That being said it's still probably middle of the pack offensively, and the defense is comfortably above average. Pache and Nico should be up by midseason, which probably won't move the offensive needle much beyond lengthening the bench,but would move the defense up to elite. The pitching is legitimately fun and exciting. The rotation might be a little bumpy the first ~6 weeks while figuring out which guys should be in the last two spots, but there's 7-8 guys that I'd be legitimately cool handing starts. The bullpen is AWESOME. If Kimbrel or Treinen bounces back it's Yankees-esque, if both do it's the best in baseball. Also everyone but those two and Underwood have minor league options, so you can cycle guys in and out based on effectiveness. The 2021 offseason is no longer apocolyptic, so next year the team could resume going after fun guys like Betts. The team's probably favored to win the Central in 2020, but the margin would be negligible.

Something like Newcomb, Pache, and Wright doesn’t make me feel all that warm and fuzzy, but it would be a good combination of underlying talent, unrealized upside, and MLB ready contributions. It almost certainly makes them worse in 2020, and when you combine it with the fact that Braves fans would probably howl in anger at that package, makes me feel it’s in the ballpark. If we’re truly punting on 2020, you need to consolidate. Reunite him with Maddon and get Jo Adell. I think this is my preferred route in trading KB. Get the highest upside/highest rated guy, even if he might not play for a year or two instead of trying to thread this needle of adding major league ready dudes for him who could help this year but aren’t as good as KB and you aren’t replacing KB with an equal talent (Rendon, Mookie, etc.). Yeah I think a Contreras trade would be focused on the very short term, while a KB trade could be more medium term since you're ensuring a step back in 2020 (and you do have his $18 to help sort of mitigate the short term loss).

I'd imagine this is more about timing - let's get our trade(s) done first - but considering they're like ~2M over the first tax level and the Ricketts' ghoulishness you can't rule out a mandate to cut payroll.

Ummmmmmm

Good thread on Kantrovitz

Looks like he's got options, so he'll be part of the Iowa shuttle crew

Catching market continues to move along, but we're down to only ~3 guys who could adequately backfill Willson.

those steamer projections are a total trainwreck though; half of the top 10 there might not even be starters meanwhile reigning 2-time all-star is squarely backup status, just a complete mess I agree the defensive numbers don't pass the smell test, which is why I zeroed them out. Or do you just not like projections in general?

All of these trade proposals involving all stars (Contreras, Bryant, etc.) talk about getting young players back, which is fine if those young players are going to contribute to the Cubs at the major league level in 2020 and 2021. I'm not interested in 18-20 year-olds that "might" be really good in 2023-2024. Me neither. When I picture a Willson trade, I picture getting back a starter who is at worst half season from being ready and a reliever who I would be comfortable giving 8th inning work on opening weekend. To use the Padres as an example, as they're my preferred destination, I'd look at packages like Cal Quantrill + Andres Munoz or Adrian Morejon + Matt Strahm.