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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    It's going to understandably get buried given the news this morning but I highly recommend this piece from Sharma on the bullpen:
  2. Bertz
  3. Bertz
    The 40-man is at 39. They snuck Pelham through waivers the other day. I think Underwood doesn’t make it through spring and would guess one of the horsefeathers against the wall guys takes his spot. I also think Ryan is a likely lock to make the pen. Ah, I meant to have Ryan in there as a lock with Wick (you can tell from how awkwardly worded that sentence is 8-[ ). But yeah like Brian said it's 39 before Souza and Jeffress, so someone has to go. I'd guess Underwood as the worst combination of expendable and lacking minor league options, but it could be someone else. I also wonder if we're about to see a Q trade, and that the team is finally spending money because they finally know exactly how much they have available.
  4. Bertz
    Jeffress projects to a 3.54 ERA via ZiPS and a 4.24 ERA via Steamer. I'm not any more worried about his performance than I would be any other non-star reliever. That being said this is a slightly weird fit in that it basically eliminates the minor league optionability of the bullpen. We now have: Kimbrel Jeffress Sadler Underwood Mills Megill Locked into the roster for contract reasons, and Wick as locks for the start of the season for performance reasons. Now, none of these guys save Kimbrel would be all that painful to get rid of, but it seems weird given the "throw it against the wall and see what sticks" nature of the pen to not really have an ability to shuttle guys back and forth. There's also Hultzen and Morrow, who once they're up they have to stay up. I wonder if Underwood is about to get DFAd. That would also address the 40 man issue at hand (once Souza's official the roster is at 41).
  5. Bertz
    I'm wondering if this, Souza, and the Gennett rumor all in succession means they have more clarity on their salary commitments for the year. We should probably expect a trade (Q?) soon.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    So the union is just stupid then. Not *just* stupid, but I'd say moreso selfish and short sighted. They sold minor leaguers and amateurs down the river for things like an extra seat on bus and plane rides and an extra chef in the clubhouse before games. But then things like the Qualifying Offer and the Luxury Tax were pure stupidity.
  8. Bertz
    Sounds like the Reds are probably done, at least with big moves.
  9. Bertz
    There's also the within-inning strategy as well, which I think is more interesting and always gets ignored in these convos. What I mean by that is from the pitcher's perspective, when do you utilize what is essentially an auto out? If there are two outs and the #8 hitter is coming up, do you work around him for a better chance at a clean inning, or do you attack the #8 guy to let you take on the top of the order with one out? At this point I'm pro DH, but we're not losing nothing.
  10. Bertz
    Ralph also just got fooled by a fake Jeff Passan account so...
  11. Bertz
    It's...actually still not all that scary when looking at it all together. The defense is going to be bad, and the offense is prett weak outside of the middle of the order unless 36 year old Joey Votto bounces back. You could get Winker (RF) and Senzel (SS) in there for a more potent offense, but then you're looking at a horrendous defense. I think this team rides or does based on the rotation more than anything.
  12. Bertz
    This sucks, but man the Reds are gonna have some baaaaaad money on their books coming up soon. Their window is basically this year and maybe next.
  13. Bertz
    Damn, Nick is a really good fit on the Reds. Do not like. Although that defense has a chance to be like catastrophically bad.
  14. Bertz
    Disgusting. Dude has a lot of guts to make a lot of enemies by (rightfully) exposing the cheating scandal knowing that this was out there. What was it? Pics a 17 year old girl posted of herself with Fiers on Instagram, and then screenshots of DMs of him begging her to take them down.
  15. Bertz
    I like this a lot. I'd love an upgrade from Descalso as well to really put the bench in a healthy place but that may depend on what specific avenue the FO takes to cut salary. Speaking of that, I wonder if the fact that the wallet has finally been opened means the FO knows what specifically they're going to do to cut salary, or if Souza's salary is nominal enough that he makes sense in any scenario.
  16. Bertz
    What are they supposed to be fixing? I believe it's usually one of: 1. Grip Type - To even further improve spin rate 2. Grip Placement - To improve spin efficiency 3. Arm Slot - To improve tunneling https://theathletic.com/1220440/2019/09/18/weird-science-the-cubs-pitch-lab-is-turning-fringe-relievers-into-high-leverage-spin-rate-monsters/ The above article from the Athletic uses good Cubs examples. Wick was a #1, changing from a traditional curve grip to a knuckle curve grip. Wieck was a number two, realizing that he needed to get more on top of his slider. Kyle Ryan was a #3. lowering his arm slot and becoming more of a sidearmer. If you read the MVP Machine there is also basically an entire chapter about Trevor Bauer building a slider from scratch in his own lab (with fun anecdotes about Bauer's douchiness like how he idolizes Elon Musk).
  17. Bertz
    Without digging too deep, that looks right in line with what Steamer has (a little more bullish on the MIF and a little bearish on the COF). I think ZiPS liked Milwaukee a little more, and Cincinnati a little less. So I think unless there's some serious love for our guys, the top four teams in the NL Central are all going to project between like 80 and 88 wins.
  18. Bertz
    https://twitter.com/No_Little_Plans/statuses/1220378210413809665
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    https://twitter.com/keithlaw/statuses/1220043585518698496
  21. Bertz
    No Amaya, look at the post just above yours. Awesome, thanks for posting the reports Raisin. That's certainly interesting. I would have thought Amaya would be the one guy in the system on all post-season lists. I feel like it's a lot harder to justify Nico as a top 50 guy than Amaya as not even on the list. Also, that EV is more pedestrian for Davis than I was hoping to see. I wonder what he tops out at.
  22. Bertz
    So the Cubs have two top 50 prospects, but as recently as August had the worst farm system in baseball? Also. I'm really hoping Amaya is on the list and Mark just missed him? I've said this a bunch over the last ~year but I don't think BA is in a good place right now.
  23. Bertz
    One thing I find interesting about all these bullpen pieces is that they've all been big time spin guys, but none of them have been all that exciting in terms of velocity. I wonder if that's more due to the supply side of things (all else being equal orgs favor velocity over spin) or on the demand side (the FO feels more confident about fixing spin guys).
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    Yeah, I can't imagine more than one of Underwood, Mills, and Chatwood make the team as a reliever at this point. With Chatwood currently penciled into the rotation it's currently just Underwood who should be nervous, but if a KB trade nets a big league ready starter I'd think Mills' odds of making the team drop precipitously as well.
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