Bertz

The Cubs' system has a really strong 10-20. Much better than you'd expect given their modest farm system ranking. I think the issues are A) How much of the fun stuff is still in A Ball and B) that there's not really an all-world type of guy unless/until we see a longer track record of dominance from Brennen Davis or Brailyn Marquez.

My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties. This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger. I’m more worried about Javy’s offensive profile eroding long term (high Ks, low BB, low Contact%, quick twitch bat speed, base running, etc) than I am about defense. I have faith he can be fine and even plus defensively somewhere well in to his 30s (2B/3B/LF). It’s an extreme but look how quickly Carlos Gomez fell off. Surprisingly, it's not a thing (again with the very large caveat about how the steroid-era affects these sorts of studies) https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves

My understanding, and I don't think I've seen a refreshed study on it so it could be a weird steroid era anachronism, is that super athletic players age far more gracefully. The idea being that these guys have multiple way of contributing, so if one area falls off they still provide value in others. When Miguel Cabrera dropped to being a league average hitter last year, he was completely unplayable. When Javy is 35, he'll probably still be solid defensive 2B/3B who mashes lefties. This could be out of date though, for the same reasons that aging curves have started skewing younger and younger.

Eyeballing it, it looks like on the main guys other than Contreras and Hendricks it's pretty in line with the current projections on FG. It's a little higher on the depth guys like Bote and Vic as well. The system does not like the middle of our rotation, but it's very generous to the depth. For the pen, Kimbrel Jeffress Sadler Wieck Wick Morrow Maples Tepera Megill All project to have league average or better ERAs next year. Kimbrel, Jeffress, Wieck, and Morrow (I know) all project to be quite good. On the rotation, Cory Abbott already projects as a solid #5 starter right now, which is great, though not enough to make up for the tepid projections for Q and Lester.

I think given the group of guys currently in the upper minors, that by next offseason we will feel good about filling one spot internally. Of course that leaves at least one more, probably two left to fill. My guess is next offseason the team will fill one rotation spot via money (either FA or Lester's option), one spot via the farm, and one spot via trade.

https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/statuses/1225159492515614722

I think the Phillies are the team that makes the most sense currently. They have the biggest hole at 3B by far for a contending team, they're in that extremely tight NL East, and they have enough money coming off of next year's books that they can make going over the LT a one year deal even if they extend Realmuto. If they finish 4th this year I can't imagine the GM keeps his job, and job insecurity is how deals get done. That being said at this point I expect KB to stay and Quintana to go. I am curious about how the Arenado situation evolves. If he makes it through the season as a Rockie, next winter a Bryant/Arenado switcheroo seems a lot more plausible, when KB will be making ~$25M and the financials are less complicated. Yeah I agree, I think the Phillies need him the most. Bohm, Howard, 1 of Velasquez or Pivetta and another prospect or two would be roughly what I’d expect with maybe Segura being involved too. An Arenado trade could make more sense next offseason but I don’t think Bryant would be involved at that point for the Rockies with 1 year left. We’d also have to be assured Arenado isn’t opting out too. A 3 team trade right now where KB goes to Philly, Arenado comes to us + a little extra stuff and Bohm and stuff goes to the Rockies makes some sense. Yeah I don't think KB would necessarily go back to COL in a deal next winter. Even this winter it sounds like the idea was that the Rockies would flip him by the deadline. I think it would be two related but separate deals, like the Joc Pederson stuff last night.

Yeah, the Dodgers offense is outrageous, but it's not hard to see that pitching staff imploding, as at this point Buehler is the only guy I'd really trust to be a high end pitcher. The rest of the NL is far more flawed, but I think I'd put the Yankees a half step above and the Astros on the same level.

Braves, Phillies, Nats, Padres and probably a “mystery” team (Yankees, Rays, Angels?) still all make some sense for Bryant. I’m at the point where I’m fine running it back and hoping for some better luck. If they have to get under the LT attach a prospect to Chatwood and be done with it. The only KB trade I’m really in favor of up at this point is one that ends up with us getting Arenado (whether that’s a direct trade, 3 team trade or two separate trades). I think the Phillies are the team that makes the most sense currently. They have the biggest hole at 3B by far for a contending team, they're in that extremely tight NL East, and they have enough money coming off of next year's books that they can make going over the LT a one year deal even if they extend Realmuto. If they finish 4th this year I can't imagine the GM keeps his job, and job insecurity is how deals get done. That being said at this point I expect KB to stay and Quintana to go. I am curious about how the Arenado situation evolves. If he makes it through the season as a Rockie, next winter a Bryant/Arenado switcheroo seems a lot more plausible, when KB will be making ~$25M and the financials are less complicated.

Sounds like no Padres either

Probably someone like Gonsolin as the starter? This does have some Cubs implications too. With the Angels and Twins adding starters tonight, that's two fewer places to send Quintana, and that is not great given that that's the assumed backup move if Theo doesn't get what he wants in a KB trade.

Move Joc to 1B once Adell is ready and dayum

Looks like you were right

Brusdar Graterol cannot possibly be a real name.

???

I’ll say Mariners because Dipoto got bored. Probably took Kelly’s horsefeathers contract from the Dodgers. I wonder if Price might be on his way to the Angels? Mookie to LAD Price to LAA Verdugo and LAA prospects to Boston

Yessssss

Here's Speier, who's a Boston source and less thirsty for rumor cred