Bertz
-
Posts
12,362 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
29
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Bertz
-
Mookie Betts and David Price Traded to the Dodgers
Bertz replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
-
Mookie Betts and David Price Traded to the Dodgers
Bertz replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
-
Mookie Betts and David Price Traded to the Dodgers
Bertz replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Here's Speier, who's a Boston source and less thirsty for rumor cred -
I don't like Kipnis for the role because he doesn't do anything particularly well. Even if we're resigning ourselves to scraping the bottom of the barrel for a LH caddy for Nico, I'd aim for Scooter Gennett or Brad Miller. Gennett's splits make me think he's likely to at least be a useful platoon partner. And Brad Miller's only nominally a 2B, but maybe we can shift our way into him not being a defensive disaster in order to get a capable bat into the lineup. Kipnis is just blah and without a skill that can be leveraged to make him useful.
-
That's a much rosier projection compared to Steamer, which is what's currently powering Fangraphs' projections. It looks like Steamer likes Kyle Schwarber a good bit more, while ZiPS likes Contreras, Baez, and Hendricks by about a full win each. Steamer is much less likely to believe guys are FIP beaters and is all in on catcher framing, so Kyle and Willson make sense. I'm curious why they're so different on Javy though.
-
I am expecting over, even if we assume a KB trade. The chances of the bottom falling out of this team are much higher than they have been in a while, but my median expectation is still high 80's without KB and low 90's with.
-
Ben Lindbergh is great and I enjoy reading his stuff, but if you're stealing someone from The Ringer it's gotta be Rany Jazayerli. He's one of my favorite writers period. Problem is The Ringer allows Ben and Rany to write about other stuff like videogames, KC Chiefs and politics and pop culture stuff that isn't possible over at ESPN. Yeah that's a great point, I can't imagine Ben would give up writing about video games and Star Wars. But I think that's the style of writer ESPN is still missing, a baseball counterpart to Bill Barnwell essentially.
-
I guess I'll renew that insider subscription that was going to lapse in April. I wonder if ESPN is going to poach anyone else. With Kiley, Passan, and Sam Miller, they have the best or very nearly the best writers of their type. They basically just need to steal Ben Lindbergh from the Ringer to get someone in that lane and complete the set.
-
Very good rundown of the new front office folks. One piece of info buried in there is that Brendan Sagara left for the Rangers, which I had not heard yet. He'd been credited with much of the good stuff that happened pitching-wise on the farm the last year or two, specifically unlocking Brailyn Marquez last summer. That one stings.
-
It's really gotta depend on how much you weigh age relative to league and draft/IFA pedigree. Because most guys who haven't hit since short season ball and without a standout tool wouldn't even get the modest benefit of the doubt he's still getting. Will be interesting to see what Fangraphs says on him when their rankings on us comes out. They’ve consistently have been the highest on him. Eric Longenhagen mentioned in a recent chat that he was going to get revised down, but didn't really say how far. I think it's fitting that he and Little are in the same pod, because they're both guys who are down but if they are killing it come June the bandwagon will be nearly back to full.
-
Tom will not be happy with AA's placement. It's really gotta depend on how much you weigh age relative to league and draft/IFA pedigree. Because most guys who haven't hit since short season ball and without a standout tool wouldn't even get the modest benefit of the doubt he's still getting.
-
-
Yeah, but weren't they trying to bring back Donaldson? It's possible they were trying to get him cheaper than what the Twins gave him, but he still would've, at the very least, cost what Bryant is costing this year and next. They presumably used most of that money on Ozuna. They still have plenty of room to the CBT, and like most teams they should be able to bump payroll even more, I'd just be very surprised if Liberty Media okayed a ~$40M year over year payroll increase. The Braves also have very little payroll tied up in future seasons, so maybe it's the case that they are able to shift funds around to make it work.
-
We could always take back Inciarte or Shane Greene in a KB trade for money reasons (both are making $6 million or so this year). I wonder if that's enough. But yeah Inciarte would be a solid fit on the roster, and the net $ savings would still be comparable to a Quintana deal, which should be enough. It would mean a lot more infield for Happ, I wonder a lot about how that will go.
-
I can't see the Braves doing it. They're already ~$15M over last year's end of season payroll, and their ownership group is as faceless and corporate as any other team in the league. I'm curious about the Padres. They'd be a great fit, but I don't know if they'd be as willing to stretch for KB as they are for Mookie. I guess it might depend on if they still view Pham as a CF.
-
Mookie Betts and David Price Traded to the Dodgers
Bertz replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Fangraphs readership thinks KB has more trade value. That certainly doesn't mean he actually does, but it's not just Cub fan bias to think he would: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-trade-value-of-nolan-arenado-mookie-betts-kris-bryant-and-francisco-lindor/ -
Mookie Betts and David Price Traded to the Dodgers
Bertz replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That's a pretty strong package. I wonder if that's straight up for Mookie or with an additional contract heading to LAD. -
The Phillies and Nationals are both still realistic options as well. That said I think at this point it's ultimately going to come down to the Dodgers. I think they're going to do something big, and the question is whether that's Betts or Bryant. If they go Betts I'd imagine the Cubs send Quintana somewhere like Anaheim to get under the cap and reevaluate the KB situation in July.
-
-
By Fangraphs WAR, Strop is the 4th best Cubs reliever of all time. And considering his consistency and longevity I'd bump him up over the current #3 in Marmol.
-
https://twitter.com/No_Little_Plans/statuses/1222904968400769024
-
Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional. Ah, I'm saying the CBT burden if they pick it up is 25 and 0 if they don't. That's why Rizzo's burden is 16.5 this year and not 14.5. Gotchya. You might be right, Cole Hamels' contract was pretty analogous and the full value of his option counted against the tax. I thought there was some weird thing where that only happened because we traded for him though, and the Rangers would have been on the hook for less. But we're definitely getting into the weirder more esoteric parts of the CBA at this point. If Jon does count $25M against the CBT next year no way that option is picked up.
-
With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado. I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision. If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that. Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional.
-
If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases). With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado. I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision. If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under.
-
I'm not positive, but I believe when you send money in a trade, it's applied to the year(s) the money is received, not amortized over the life of the deal. So if, say, they did a 1 for 1 deal where all of the money the Rockies kicked in (let's say $25M) was in year one. that would get the Cubs under the tax this year rather than simply lowering Arenado from a $32M AAV guy to a $29M AAV guy. Realistically though, I would imagine that if Arenado becomes a Cub it would have to be next winter or maybe at the deadline. But who knows, Theo did the Nomar deal and the Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez switcheroo so he's got it in him.