Bertz

I think too, now that the cat is out of the bag with tanking and it's less of an...this is probably not the best choice of words...innovative strategy, I'm not sure that it nets you out that much better than a soft rebuild or a re-tool or whatever. The Phillies have clearly botched their rebuild. The White Sox are set up well, but don't look primed to reach super team status at any point. The Braves are awesome because of Acuna and Albies, who were non-premium IFAs they could have gotten regardless of whether they bottomed out. Yankees didn't tear it down. Dodgers didn't. Etc. The difference between a regular good team and a super team is basically one additional star. You have a better chance of netting that guy by selling more pieces sure, but we're blessed with being in a payroll tier where more reliably you can just go buy that guy when the time is right.

Kiley suggests the Rays for Bryant, though TBF it's in more of a dot-connecty than rumor-y way: Also seems notable that they need catching and we're almost certain to deal a catcher this winter

I don't have a problem tearing it down to the studs, but I think because of the lack of quality in our division you don't necessarily *have* to. You certainly need to make a trade or two that hurts, trading like Kimbrel and Schwarber does nothing. I think Darvish and Hendricks would each bring in Quintana-esque returns, but moving them wouldn't be my Plan A. Maybe I'm naive but I'm hoping to do more of a retool than a rebuild. I've said it a couple times, but I think if you do still want to compete Bryant and Contreras is the path to go. We have high quality backups for each, while Bryant opens up funds to use in FA and Contreras brings in legitimate star power on the prospect front. I hate getting too bogged down on specific names, but something like Contreras to the Marlins for Bleday, Rogers, and another top 20 guy? A Contreras trade likely ends up really moving the needle on the farm system. Bryant's much harder to value, maybe to the Giants for Mauricio Dubon? That might require a few more names to balance it out. Also, on just a pure cold numbers front, trading Javy makes some sense. If you backfilled him with Andrelton Simmons, you're not losing much if anything on defense and you're probably knocking out 100 strikeouts. That's something that will be felt at the team level. That said, I have a more visceral reaction to moving Javy than any of the other position players except for Rizzo.

Yeah it really sounds like this is gonna happen. Interestingly though, it sounds like they're open to moving pitching, but not necessarily pushing for it. If you combine these last few national reports with what we've heard from the local guys, my sense is that they aren't under directive to cut additional payroll, but that they're already near their (PTR imposed) cap. So in order to do anything beyond a couple of split contracts, they need to move salary.

Yeah, Sharma's article from yesterday indicated that Kantrovitz and/or Craig Breslow are due to get promoted, and they're looking at Porter or Amiel Sawdaye from Arizona as outside hires. Sawdaye, for people who don't know, was under Theo and Jed back in Boston. Porter seems the most likely. I wish they could poach Josh Byrnes from the Dodgers but I'm not sure the Cubs GM position is even a lateral move for him (he's a VP of Baseball Operations and the Dodgers haven't had a formal GM since Farhan Zaidi left for San Francisco). Byrnes did work closely with Theo and Jed in Boston. Yeah, if I had my pick I'd choose someone fresh, and not from the Theo management tree. I know Byrnes is, but he's been away from the nest much longer between the time he was on his own with the Dbacks the last several years with the Dodgers.

Yeah, Sharma's article from yesterday indicated that Kantrovitz and/or Craig Breslow are due to get promoted, and they're looking at Porter or Amiel Sawdaye from Arizona as outside hires. Sawdaye, for people who don't know, was under Theo and Jed back in Boston.

Nothing all that interesting on the Cubs front, but I thought this was a good team-by-team level setting exercise.

I've been thinking a lot about something like this. Obviously with Javy already in hand importing a full middle infield isn't necessary, but what about one of these guys plus Jackie Bradley Jr? Bryant probably has to go to make the money work, but think about something like: Happ (LF) Schwarber (DH) Contreras Rizzo Baez (2B) Heyward Bote Simmons (SS) Bradley (CF) That's an absurd defensive team, and honestly not necessarily a bad offensive one. Like it's probably not the offseason I would draw up, but I don't hate it.

Do we think Theo tweets from his burner account one last time before handing the reigns over to Jed?

This sucks, but I am glad they're doing it now. I'm sure some if it is lip-service, but he's not wrong when he says that with the long term decisions that need to be made this offseason it makes more sense for Jed to be the guy. I do also wonder if this means the offseason is going to be more oriented towards selling than "threading the needle.". It doesn't have to but it easily could when we look back. I'm also curious if they do bring in a #2 behind Jed, or if that's earmarked for someone internal. Kantrovitz maybe? I would like to get another prominent outside voice brought in. I also wonder about money. $10M is not nothing, especially in this market. Theo will certainly get some on his way out the door, and Jed will hopefully get a healthy bump. Does some make its way back to player acquisition?

The budget is keeping them from adding to a team that clearly has some flaws, shortcomings, redundancies, etc. The only way to change that and still try and win without bottoming out is to move on from one of the better/more expensive players and use that money/trade capital to deepen the roster. Not saying I like it, but I get it. Moving KB for Kieboom (or whatever prospect(s) you want to consider) and NT'ing Schwarbs free's up about $30 mil, it also gives you a player(s) for KB who you presumably control longer. I think there's a decent argument that whatever KB returns + 2-3 of DJ, Eaton, Wong, Brantley, other NT/FA position players and a non Bauer FA SP for that ~$30 mil can give us a more competitive team in 2021 vs just running it back with the core and a few Kipnis level FA adds on the margins. But everything I have read sounds like PTR wants to cut payroll and not trade $30 million to spend the same money on 2-3 other players. They will have a competitive team (in a lousy division) for 2021 without making any changes. The problem is we have no idea how much payroll is getting cut by. Right now it's ~$45M less than last year with just guys hitting FA. That's about a 20% drop. We know there's not that full $45M available to Theo to spend, but is there $15M? Or is it so bad he still needs to cut another $10M? Has the good news on vaccines moved the number up, making some of the more dour reports from the last few weeks excessive? We just have no idea, and so it's hard to be too attached to any specifics. I tend to think it's explicitly because of that lousy division you have to make some moves. That's the one specific I will latch onto. There will be no better opportunity to start guys like Bote and Caratini and not have it cost you a playoff spot. Make a few trades to improve the long term outlook (I vote KB and Willson, but I'd listen to other ideas), and use the limited funds and the huge market of mid-tier players to patch the holes with cromulent veterans.

His spin and velo both spiked in limited action last year. Even still, this provides a hopeful piece of evidence for this market not being a total horsefeathering disaster.

A few less talked about teams that I think make sense for Kris Bryant: Mets - JD Davis is about as much of a 3B as Ryan Braun was. Jeff McNeil can play it but I think they like moving him around a la Ben Zobrist. Acquiring KB for primarily $ and keeping the farm intact is exactly the type of move they've said they're looking to make Giants - Longoria is still fine so it wouldn't necessarily be for 3B. They're looking to add but might be a year early, so getting KB on a 1 year deal for mostly money improves them while keeping the powder dry for next winter Tigers - Same exact deal as the Giants Padres - This is admittedly a long shot, as it would require Wil Myers coming back our way to make the money work for them. You'd lose the ability to reinvest KB's salary in the FA market, but you'd actually be getting a good prospect return back for taking on the rest of Myers' deal. This sort of buying prospects move deprioritizes 2021 more than I think we expect the FO to

Okay this is actually pretty cool. I think she's been in the league office the last few years.

I'm not clicking the link because I don't want to reward him, but BPs stats thought deGrom and Nola were better than Bauer: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/62195/cy-young-awards-in-2020-the-problem-of-opponent-quality/ So if you're going to say "BP told me to do it" then explain Bauer at #1.

As a team that might be sneaky buyers this winter I hope they do something dumb.

Sadly, I don’t think they do in this market. True or false, the owner will all be PTR this year. Most of the insider types have indicated that they expect the stars are still going to get paid, and it'll be the middle class of players that are going to get worked over. Darvish is only owed 3/59, and Kyle 3/43.5 with a club option. Those are ludicrously team-friendly contracts against the backdrop of Trevor Bauer being expected to get 4-5 years at 30+ million per.

Unwarranted "Don't you know who I am" is one of my favorite flavors of douchiness. Like even at the height of his powers I'm not sure he warranted that reaction outside of St. Louis.

Good piece, though it's striking to me that Brett is quickly transitioning from absurdly optimistic to be much more on the dour end of things. I think he underrates how good of shape the pitching is in. The team desperately needs a mid-rotation starter, but this is not a bad offseason to need a short term patch for the middle of your rotation. This pitching staff is good enough, and this division is bad enough, that you can probably slide a Mike Minor into the rotation and be decent favorites next year even after losing some real talent on offense. IMO that's how you "thread the needle." I know it's not this simple, but it seems to me like the obvious path forward is to trade KB and Willson. KB to net the $ for other moves, and Willson to get you that real infusion of talent for 2022+. It also works out that we have solid in-house replacements for both, so you can allocate your resources to the best available players rather than being locked in to specific positions of need. The exception is if there's a mandate to cut additional payroll. The ~$25M that trading KB and Willson would save is enough have an adequate offseason in this market. But if PTR says you need to cut like 10+ before you can begin reinvesting anything, then salvaging this offseason quickly becomes untenable. Go full bore, trade Yu and Kyle who will each bring back massive Quintana-esque returns.

When PTR and Theo confirmed he was coming back, they couched all of their statements in language like "We expect...." or "The plan is for..." Theo's so careful with his words, there was clearly an "unless" involved and this makes by far the most sense.