Bertz

I'm all in on Bote at this point. He showed last year that he could hit the hell out of the ball and play strong defense. This year he's showing that he can control the stikezone without horsefeathering with the power.

I feel like the Bears gave up horrendous value to move up 15 picks in the third round, but not necessarily horrendous value for Montgomery? Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) had him as a second rounder and his #2 RB.

The Cards are definitely good, but I'm not super worried about them being so good that they have what it takes to run away with the division. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, but I think on the whole they've had more go wrong with their pitching than right with their offense. Carlos Martinez looks like he can no longer hold up as a starter. Alex Reyes is making Tyler Chatwood look like Greg Maddux. Andrew Miller seems broken. These things are going to hold them back from being some 95 win behemoth. Agree, they’re not bad but they have flaws/injuries. I think they’re closer to a 85-88 win team than mid 90s. Wacha is already hurt too, the bullpen is shaky, if Wainwright ends up getting 20-25 starts that probably won’t end well, Mikolas is regressing a bit last I checked too. Exactly. They could absolutely win 88-90 games and the division, but we're not going to see a repeat of 2015 where the Cubs and Pirates (or Brewers) are both awesome but the Cards are so good they still comfortably win the division by like 3 games.

The Cards are definitely good, but I'm not super worried about them being so good that they have what it takes to run away with the division. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, but I think on the whole they've had more go wrong with their pitching than right with their offense. Carlos Martinez looks like he can no longer hold up as a starter. Alex Reyes is making Tyler Chatwood look like Greg Maddux. Andrew Miller seems broken. These things are going to hold them back from being some 95 win behemoth.

Hopefully good news. Have a hard time seeing a hit to the forearm being a big deal and not knowing right away. So do we think Jared Young has a chance to be a thing? With his lack of defensive value I don't imagine he'll ever be a regular, but maybe a Brock Holt or Derek Dietrich type?

Quintana going back to being awesome was like a top 3 (reasonable) thing that could have happened to this team. Now fix Bryant and Darvish so we can go back to Super Cubs

I'm putting unreasonable weight into this game in determining if Quintana is in fact all the way back to being awesome

Knowing that Russell is due back in like a week and then seeing a bunch of new posts in this thread scared the horsefeathers out of me

His exit velocity looks fine, in fact it's currently better than it was in 2017. That's hopefully a sign his shoulder is fine. And if his shoulder is fine, this is most likely just a slump. His two problems have been that he's been making too much contact on pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing too much on pitches over the heart of the plate. Those *should* just be normal slump problems. These are his heatmaps for contact rate in 2017 vs 2019 https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B&ss=&se=&type=3&hand=&count=&blur=0&grid=5&view=&pitch=&season=2017&data=pi https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=15429&position=3B&ss=&se=&type=3&hand=&count=&blur=0&grid=5&view=&pitch=&season=2019&data=pi Notice all that extra orange on the left in 2019? That means pitchers that this year when pitchers have jammed him he's still made contact, likely crap contact. Whereas in 2017 he would have swung and missed through those pitches and the AB would continue. Also, the box in the bottom right (low and away out of the zone) is much lighter. Those are extra pitches he's lunging at and rolling over. Conversely, all that white right down the middle and down and in in 2019 means he's swinging through a lot more pitches in zones that he used to hit the hell out of. So if KB's bad now it doesn't look to be because his shoulder has been turned into hamburger meat. (if there was a heatmap of exit velocity by zone that would really help check this). I personally have a really hard time imagining him continuing to struggle if he's healthy, but we'll see.

The Dbacks lineup is terrible and Greinke has given up 8 dongs in 23 innings. Today would be a really good opportunity to get back to feeling good about Darvish and KB again

There's a contingent of fairly smart people who think Gruden is a secret genius who's just playing the dummy in some Columbo-like attempt to get the edge over other NFL teams. I think the Occam's Razor explanation is that he's the dummy he's been advertising himself to be for the past ~15 years. He just happened to be in the right place and right time to take advantage of a couple desperate teams in the Amari Cooper and Antonio Brown deals.

When he's throwing 94-96 he's awesome, when he's throwing 92-94 like right now he sucks. Last year his velocity started low and rebounded, gotta hope that warmer weather and getting further removed from his bout of mono will let him do the same this year.

I was slow to adopt Bote as anything more than a deluxe Jeff Baker, but I think at this point I am pretty all-in He's kept the "hit he horsefeathers out of the ball" trait he showed last year but has thus far been far more patient. Add in his defense and I think he's a legit starting caliber player, maybe more if he starts hitting the ball in the air a little more.

Corbin Burnes' struggles right now are super interesting. I'm generally an xFIP guy, and by xFIP he's actually been pretty good. However, 58% of his fly balls have left the yard so far. That's insanity. John Lackey's last year when we all hated him was 18%. Like there's clearly bad luck at play here, but even over a small sample I didn't think 58% could happen. Like it can't *just* be bad luck at this point. Is he tipping pitches?

Wait, are pretending Schwarber is bad now? A week ago his numbers were great, so people are losing their horsefeathers after a bad weekend?

Unfortunately it looks like we get both Greinke and Robby Ray in that Dbacks series. Still probably win 2/3, but it's not the laugher of a series that it potentially could have been. Greinke kinda sucks, though Maybe? He's given up a ton of dongs so far, but he's still doing everything else really well. I'd guess it is not totally SSS given that he throws in the 80's now, but if going forward he only has minor dong issues rather than major dong issues then he's still very dangerous.

Some of the vets that signed minor league deals this winter probably have opt outs coming up soon. A trade won't be hard though. For example the Mets and Giants both have multiple veteran guys behind very good starters. We could probably nab one for a song. It probably just depends on if Caratini is going to miss the 3-4 weeks that was initially mentioned or more like 6+.

I’ll stand by my comment earlier in the week, we get to 10 wins before 10 losses Schedule is set up for it. Angels without Trout, Marlins and DBacks are the next 8 games. Unfortunately it looks like we get both Greinke and Robby Ray in that Dbacks series. Still probably win 2/3, but it's not the laugher of a series that it potentially could have been.

No Trout or Sealboy today. Even though Skaggs is good that makes this a should-win. (Cubs lose 12-8)

Thanks to his hot start Heyward now projects to finish this year right around 3 WAR. Him opting out is still a laughable idea at that point (I'd guess that would require a ~5 WAR season), but combined with his contract being down into 8 figures might be enough to make him relatively easy to trade. E.g. we only need to pay down $5mil per year instead of the 10+ it would have taken this past offseason. That being said I feel like he's started hot every year but 2016, so we have a long ways to go.

Well Hamels looked fantastic

I'm slightly worried about today's game. Lance Lynn was really good with the Yankees last year. It appears to have just been a really soft schedule, but the Yankees do have a tendency to help pitchers unlock something. There's probably like a 20% chance he's actually good again.

15 walks and only 10 strikeouts for the offense so far. This feels like 2008 or 2016 where just every single guy is grinding out every single AB

I thought he looked great on Thursday, but yeah today has been real rough

This whole thing with Quintana might end up working out well. The Braves are way better against lefties (and that was BEFORE adding Donaldson) and for some reason Quintana turns into 1999 Pedro Martinez whenever he pitches against the Brewers. That of course assumes Yu just had a night to forget and there's nothing wrong going forward...