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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I think the issue here is that if you just pretend to go after him and miss the fans believe you have $30m that you're able to spend. "Rolling it forward" like we did with Tanaka is acceptable during a rebuild, but not right now. I do sort of wonder about that rumor that we can go up to 240 for Harper. Trading Zobrist and a reliever would be easy, and get payroll down below 210, giving the team the flexibility needed for a Harper signing. That would also make them picking up Hamels' option less confounding.
  2. Bertz
    In Keith Law's rankings Amaya came in at 91 and Hoerner came in at 110
  3. Bertz
    If you trust Ian Happ as the backup CF, Heyward for Cueto makes a ton of sense for both teams (Cubs would likely need to pay down Heyward's salary a bit in 22/23). I’d only do that trade if the savings led to Bryce. But agree that swap makes some sense. Let Cueto rehab all year and he’s a rotation option over the next 2-3 years as guys become FA’s. I trust Happ in CF but wouldn’t love the OF going in to the year if it was just that trade and no Bryce or any other FA OF added. With that trade specifically, it's mostly that it effectively shortens how long you have that $20m/year albatross as round your neck. And like you said helps out the pitching depth in 20/21. But given LT considerations for both teams, I doubt either one throws in more than a couple million for 2019. So I think it's a deal that is only likely in a no Bryce scenario. But yeah we'd need to add an OF. I'd guess like ~3m on like Adam Jones, Cam Maybin, or Curtis Granderson, depending one what skillset you're looking to have added to the bench.
  4. Bertz
    I'd think rangy and young OF Jason Heyward would look great running down balls in that huge outfield. (except that one time last year that ball hit off his head and he got injured or whatever.....) If you trust Ian Happ as the backup CF, Heyward for Cueto makes a ton of sense for both teams (Cubs would likely need to pay down Heyward's salary a bit in 22/23).
  5. Bertz
    I wonder where he's going. I kind of hope ESPN, because IMO that would imply good things about how Sam Miller's been doing there. Also I assume ESPNers get compensated the best amongst their peers, and these guys deserve it.
  6. Bertz
    This is from Rosenthal's latest article in The Athletic. If this is true, why aren't Owners screaming it from the rooftops? It would indicate, that at the most macro level, things are fine. Yes, the specifics (e.g. minor league salaries) are broken, but it's a different dynamic from "greedy owners not giving the players their share." Do we think the issue is a some horsefeathers'd up definition of revenue? Because if this is actually true and not just shady accounting, I would guess this info would quell most of the people who are currently upset. I for one would drop my pitchfork. I'd still be pissed about minor league salaries and PTR specifically, but not baseball's labor issues more broadly.
  7. Bertz
    If 240 is the line, that ought to be pretty easy to make work. Trading Zobrist and Kintzler would get payroll down to ~208, which ought to be plenty of room.
  8. Bertz
    Wow, I didn't realize how many of these guys we had until they were all listed together. While it sucks that it still lacks a blue chipper, this is actually pretty good depth. And that's really important because we need, at minimum, 3 of these guys to show enough that we feel good about them heading into next offseason. Otherwise prepare for more of this same nonsense we've been dealing with this winter.
  9. Bertz
    Even at his best Kontos wasn't that special, he was basically just a Brandon Kintzler type whose superficial numbers looked nice because of AT&T park. Even if the velocity thing is real I'm not sure it'd mean much. But hey, there's no such thing as a bad minor league signing, so cool.
  10. Bertz
    I would have preferred this to Brach, but not enough to get worked up over. Brach has a much higher floor.
  11. Bertz
    There's going to be a competition. Question is if Parkey is part of it or if it's someone like Folk vs. a draft pick.
  12. Bertz
    We don't currently have the roster spots for that. So if true that means either a pitcher is dead that we don't know about, a pitcher is being traded, or we're going hard on the Dodgers' "shamelessly DL guys who aren't actually hurt" strategy. Edit: Didn't realize how bad Kontos has been lately. Bruce could just be talking about minor league signings.
  13. Bertz
    This is exactly like the Kintzler trade. He's fine, this helps, but it's a real "way to aim for the middle" kind of move. I'm also annoyed that it looks like we're tied to him next year if he sucks. Glad the FO learned nothing from Duensing and Kintzler. The whole horsefeathering point of playing in this end of the reliever pool is to not tie up money going forward. If you can't do that with Brach you just keep going down the list until you find someone who's down for a 1 year deal.
  14. Bertz
    I like Madson a lot. I worry about his big FIP-ERA gap with the Dodgers because it came with wholesale changes to his pitch usage, but he's probably a very solid setup guy in the Strop/Cishek tier. I also like Ollie Perez on a one year deal. He was a horsefeathering monster last year, but even in a more down year he is always good for LOOGY duty.
  15. Bertz
    Cole Hamels is good and easily worth $20m in a broad sense, but for our specific case with less than $30m (maybe less than $25?) available to spend it was dumb to pick up his option.
  16. Bertz
    Yeah, if the team doesn't develop some pitching soon or significantly bump up payroll, the next few offseasons are going to look a lot like this one. Arb raises eat up most of the money that's coming free from expiring contracts If payroll stays flat, next offseason there will likely be ~30 million (40 if we let Morrow go) to play with. However, we need to replace Hamels, Zobrist, Strop, Cishek, Duensing, Kintzler, and possibly Morrow. During the 2020 offseason another ~20 shakes loose (excluding Morrow), but Lester, Hendricks, Chatwood, and Quintana are all FAs. The year after that as mentioned is basically position player armageddon. This coming year is really big for the Iowa bullpen shuttle. Hit on 2-3 guys and next offseason should be fun again. Don't and we're looking at a couple of third tier relievers and a Tanner Roark type for the rotation.
  17. Bertz
    I think the rosey outcome for Chatwood is that he's a good reliever. While I am certainly not saying it's the most likely outcome, you don't have to squint too hard to see 2017 Wade Davis. In relief Chatwood would presumably drop the sinker and the change, and go fastball/cutter/curve, just like Davis. Wade also had similar issues throwing strikes. He threw 43.4%of his pitches in the zone in 2017, Chatwood was at 43.3% last year. The problem with Chatwood last year is that he would lose the zone for like 10-12 pitches at a time. So while the percentages are similar I think Chatwood might be more prone to meltdown. That being said maybe focusing on only 2-3 pitches would help with that. The velocity bump might help help too.
  18. Bertz
    The Reds are really interesting. They're pretty good basically everywhere, they just don't have any star power beyond Votto and Suarez. Very similar to the Pirates honestly. But the most Reds thing that could possibly happen is for this to be the year Votto gets old which just gives back most of the gains they make with their pitching staff.
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    Wait, is this "the rotation is bad" thing like a bit or did all five original guys get raptured away last night? Is this the Leftovers and they're the cast of Perfect Strangers? They're not the Indians by any stretch, but it's a good rotation.
  21. Bertz
    The Twins are a really good guess. I saw on Twitter that they're currently in line for their lowest payroll since I believe '02. If not one of them than at the very least Keuchel.
  22. Bertz
    Machado to either the Yankees or Dodgers and Bryce to the Phillies seems like a fait accompli at this point.
  23. Bertz

    Theo Speak

    Bertz replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    It's also the most comprehensive discussion of Russell we've gotten to date. He really ought to have been an adult and said all of that before they tendered Russell a contract, rather than the chicken-horsefeathers "release a written statement at 4pm on a Friday" way they initially announced it.
  24. Bertz
    As much of a wet butt as this offseason has been, I can't complain too much about the approach to the bullpen. If you're not going to go big for someone then just wait until February and grab like Ryan Madson or Oliver Perez for a couple million. Zach Britton definitely would have been cool though.
  25. Bertz
    I'm not too worried about them signing Hunt. I don't expect that his situation will be resolved soon enough for him to sign this offseason, and I think RBs are fungible enough that teams won't find one who missed a year and a half to be worth that sort of headache. And that's assuming no one in management or ownership would say no even for non selfish-reasons.
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