Bertz

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Death, taxes, and Bob Nightengale almost immediately being shown to be wrong

Yeah, when looking at it this way things still look really good. And the Vikings are gonna have a real tough time winning out. Seattle has the biggest HFA in football, the Dolphins are more mediocre than bad with Tannehill back, and @Lions is often a trap game (they've already beaten the Patriots, Panthers, and Packers there this year).

I think I'm ultimately more pumped about how awesome the last two minutes of regulation were than I am up upset about the loss. That was incredible. *I maintain the ability to change my mind about this if the Vikings manage to win in Foxborough

I don't think it ends up mattering too much. Split the Rams/Packers home stand, and win the 49ers game, and that should do it. The Vikings are at Patriots and at Seahwaks the next two weeks. They would need to win one of those, and their final three games (including one against the Bears) to grab the division. It's not impossible, but it's a very tough ask. That's what was so big about beating the Vikings, it gave the Bears the cushion to lose one of these road games against the Lions/Giants/49ers. Everyone just assumed the Thanksgiving game was the one they were going to drop.

Bryant's hairline is receding so fast we'll be able to track it with Statcast next year

I feel like for the longest time there was just Janikowski, but then Prater got there and suddenly everyone could do it. It's the football equivalent of how all relievers throw at least 95 mph now.

Russell hit .250/.317/.340 last year and is in line to make ~6 million in arbitration. Even if a grievance would be filed (I've never heard of such a thing for a non-tender), it would not be tough to argue that it was merit based. Hell, he made 17 errors in 2/3's of a season, so they could play dumb and say that he sucks on defense too. And even if they lost the grievance, like the Yankees did with Arod, they have to pay $6m for a quality backup SS. That would suck for us fans, but that's not a bad outcome for some heartless FO type. I don't think he actually plays for the team next year, but this is still the team deciding that whatever B- prospect he ends up netting us is worth the message this sends. It's super messed up.

If this holds up, it's basically the Vernon wells trade. You read the players involved and you're like "Okay okay this all makes sense" but you keep reading and you never find that other ~$30m the deal needs to actually be fair. If the ~$30 mil is paid out to Diaz it’s because he’s worth it though. They’re essentially paying ~$80 million for Diaz and taking on Cano’s dead weight plus maybe giving up prospects. Just sign like 1-2 of Ottavino/Allen/Miller/Britton/Robertson and one of the infielder FA for likely -$60 million or less and end up in a better spot vs doing this. Because individually you’re out of all those deals sooner and none are going to sink you if they go bad. We're on the same page. I'm saying the Mets probably needed to receive an extra $30ish million in cash in the deal.

If this holds up, it's basically the Vernon wells trade. You read the players involved and you're like "Okay okay this all makes sense" but you keep reading and you never find that other ~$30m the deal needs to actually be fair.

It sounds like just a repackaging of the stuff the beat writers are saying. That said, the second tier of free agents doesn't make a lot of sense for this team right now. There aren't really any glaring holes on the team, just a lot of guys who are probably prettygood but you can't totally trust. A guy like Bryce really helps the team. because if Javy's a mirage or Kris is broken or whatever, there are still multiple stars to anchor the lineup. But the Michael Brantleys of the world just aren't going to move the needle very much. If you can't afford Harper, the best course is to put the team in as strong a financial position as possible for 2020, so that we don't have to deal with this crap again. That means waiting until February to do FA shopping. Grab a few dudes who lose the game of FA musical chairs and have to settle for one year deals and can bolster the team's depth. For example maybe Brian Dozier is this year's Neil Walker, and can be had for 1/6. What the Cubs absolutely cannot afford to do is give 2-3 years to some modest upgrade. There's almost nothing worse the team could do than sign horsefeathering Andrew McCutchen or something and have us all desperately wishing we could dump him come this time next year. Also, get Russell the hell off this team. This better be just some sad attempt at generating leverage.

If Torreyes is actually a decent SS, I really like this. If he's not, I don't really care because I question how much time he will actually spend on the roster this year. He's basically La Stella but trade some walks for some defense. If the last two spots on our bench are Torreyes and Spangenberg/Deitrich, versus La Stella and some generic backup SS, I think that's probably a small upgrade.

Here's some food recs. Unfortunately, none of these are all that close to your hotel. That being said, I think what makes Chicago's food scene great is the mid tier places, so I think it should be a good fit for what you'relooking for. I'm honestly not a big fan of a lot of the high end but not super high end places here. Nice place - I would probably try and make Girl & the Goat or Monteverde work, but if you can't I would say don't overthink it, just go to one of the many awesome steakhouses near your hotel. Mid Tier Au Cheval - My favorite burger. The waits are often absurd, so my recommendation is to go for a late lunch (1:30+) on a weekday. Usually the wait is less than 30 at that point, even if they quote you more. Revival Food Hall - Only open on weekdays until 7, but a fun food court with a number of smaller versions of Chicago staples. Great lunch spot if you're doing touristy stuff in the Loop (it's ~halfway between the Sears Tower and the Bean, for instance) Tacos - Antique Taco and Big Star are both fantastic, and close by each other in Wicker Park. If you don't want to go out that way, Big Star has a second location across from Wrigley now, and Antique Taco has a stall at Revival. Velvet Taco is also pretty solid. Pizza - I don't have a ton of input here except that as much as I like Pequod's, I don't think it actually counts as Chicago style deep dish Ramen - Slurping Turtle and Ramen San are both in river north, and both quite good. They're also across the street from each other, so I usually go with whichever has a shorter line Smoque BBQ - The best bbq in the city, but unfortunately a ways away from downtown Honey Butter Fried Chicken - Awesome chicken joint, but unfortunately also pretty far from downtown

Great move for the Braves. If I were a Cards fan I would be rioting in the streets right now. How did they not top this?? Oh well, good for us.

MLBTR this week put together a really good list of contract swap candidates: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/2018-19-contract-swap-candidates.html There's a lot of interesting names here, but one really jumped out to me. Yasmany Tomas is owed $32.5 million the next two years by the Dbacks, however his luxury tax hit is only $23m ($11.5 per year). I think he's an interesting candidate in a Tyler Chatwood trade. He would save the Cubs LT space, while saving the Dbacks real dollars, so in broad strokes it's a win-win. Thomas is not going to take any MLB at bats, he's just chilling at AAA, so you don't have to worry about how he fits onto the roster. Plus, as toxic an asset as Chatwood is, he's way more valuable than Tomas, so the Dbacks would need to provide additional value to balance out any deal. Maybe that's taking Kintzler and/or Duensing off our hands too, or sending us some relief help (Andrew Chafin?), but regardless it should be something of tangible value, in addition to the LT savings. This probably only makes sense if PTR's alleged issues this winter are LT based, rather than straight up cashflow, which is not something we can say with any real confidence.

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1066483766800072704?s=19 Bryce is already practicing trolling people from Wisconsin

Obviously the personnel are better, but it's incredible how much of this is on the coaching staff. Nagy has practically taken this offense from the leather helmet era to being one of the 3-5 most progressive in the league. That gives me some hope that we'll be able to keep Vic Fangio on for next year. In a normal year, he'd be at or near the top of most prospective coach lists, and there's no way in hell we'd be able to retain him. But with the whole paradigm shift in the NFL right now, it may be tough to sell an owner on a 60 year old defensive coordinator, no matter how good. That is doubly so if you have a young QB or are going to need to draft one, which is basically all of the potential openings except the Packers and Lions.

I do wonder if Thor might cost less than the general consensus assumes. James Paxton just went for a pretty reasonable price. and he's basically the same guy minus a year of team control. I know it would require some more balancing, but a framework of Q, Russell, and an outfielder for Thor and Seth Lugo would make a lot of sense for both sides.

I'm not worried about the defense disappearing late or whatever. It 100% happened during the Dolphins game, but the field conditions that led to that are not something we need to worry about happening again in December and January. I can see the argument for the Packers game too, though I tend to think it was mostly a case of Rodgers being hopped up on adrenaline and going Super Saiyan for a half. Even if you want to blame the defense, keep in mind that was when Mack and Roquan were still on a pretty conservative snap count from missing training camp.

Lions also a mess health-wise

Spangenberg hasn't really put it together but he can play multiple positions and has some speed and pop so I don't imagine he'll make it through waivers. I would be happy if we replaced Seal Boy with Spangenberg. You lose some contact but gain some everything else.

There's enough still there that he's likely to be ranked in our (admittedly weak) system.