Bertz

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing. My intention was to have Madrigal in the lineup in pencil to start out, with Morel nipping at his heels, and also playing a decent amount of 3B since Turner's a bit iffy over there already and at his age could quickly go from kinda bad to really bad. But having it the other way around and making Madrigal earn his way into the lineup is plenty fair. But yeah, the non-Swanson outcomes are ugly. The fact that the above is pretty much the best realistic scenario I can dream up is dark.

A no shortstop offseason would have been a lot more viable if it was the plan from the beginning. Add an Abreu or Bell, go harder on SP, etc. I think at this point the top tier no SS offseason is probably something like - Trade for Danny Jansen - Sign Nate Eovaldi - Sign the best DH option available (Michael Brantley?) - Sign someone who can cover 3B and/or SS. I'd prioritize offense and do someone like Justin Turner - Go fairly hard on the bullpen, but guys who are already good rather than those you think you can make good, something like Taylor Rogers and Adam Ottavino But like if they're drawing such a hard line on keeping the powder dry, even the above plan you have to have doubts around Jed's appetite for the modest prospect costs of Jansen and Eovaldi's QO.

Man the pressure is really on to nab Swanson. Because the order of events means there's not really anything else to pivot to. Like I'm cool with Swanson and have been for a while. But a no shortstop offseason and to a lesser extent a Swanson offseason necessitated going hard essentially everywhere else. If you whiff on Dansby too...yikes.

As bad as it would be for the Cubs this would totally be worth it for the meltdowns. Oh man so many meltdowns.

I started looking at him this afternoon too. It feels like there's about a 30% chance he dumps his sinker, plays with a couple breaking ball grips, and resumes being awesome even at his new velo. But there's like a 70% chance he's just simply washed. He's basically pitcher Bellinger.

Because the GM is obsessed with efficiency and the owner is comfortable with the business model of a losing Cubs team still being profitable. but there are lots of guys who would still have fit into an efficiency plan with more bulk. jed can't be scared of 2 year deals. I mean the obvious answer to your question is that the offseason is not done yet, particularly in the "guys who will settle for 1-2 year deal" range. Like I'm nervous about who the other SP is going to be, since that's a position that's been picked over pretty good, but otherwise IMO it's just wait and see what happens with the shortstops before getting too depressed or elated. IMO it's telling that Jed was expedient in addressing CF, the thinnest position in FA.

I still think the most likely explanation for all the "we've got the money" talk is less palace intrigue and more that PTR is less worried about not coming down with anybody than the fanbase is. Possibly related, Russ Dorsey posted this a few hours and then just retweeted himself a few minutes ago Swanson might be imminent, and given Dorsey's time as a Cubs beat guy it's encouraging that he seems plugged in here (assuming you're like me and actually like Swanson).

Based on Twitter vibes the Orioles and Red Sox seem to be the two fanbases having a tougher time than the Cubs

Yeah there's some stuff to really like about Ruiz, and he's a guy the new rules might help even more, but he should be the other guy in return for Contreras not by far the most valuable piece.

Brett being a reactionary drama queen is not a new development It's very funny to me how random it is. He'll be the this is fine dog during something of real consequence and then turn on the histrionics over something like this.

lol

lol Brett's gonna have an aneurysm

I'm like 60/40 on whether I want the Cubs to come down with him just because I think the tantrums if they don't will be hilarious

Even with modest projections for their offense, I think it's understated just how dramatic an upgrade Swanson and Mervis would be over the production they got from those positions last year. They were 25th in CF WAR. If they're at all right about how much Willson was giving back defensively and they add a C with a better bat than Gomes they may very well have parity there too. I would rather they sign Correa regardless, but a lot of my view on the offseason hinges on if ownership actually has the appetite to go over the LT this year. If they don't, then the likely outcome here isn't exactly how I would play it out, but with the number of holes and the market being higher than expected I can at least appreciate the logic. That starts with Swanson being the 'settling' outcome though, you can't whiff on a SS. Yeah simply swapping out Schwindel and Rivas' '22 production for Mervis' '23 projection is a 3 win swing. This team, with the resources available and the baseline talent on November 1st, should project to at least ~85 wins at the end of the day. Adding more from there becomes substantially more expensive and painful. I'd continue pushing, but that at least hits the point where some reservations and more forward looking are understandable. But like we should at minimum add something approaching 15 WAR. For example: Swanson (3.5 WAR) Bellinger (2 WAR) Taillon (2 WAR) Vazquez (2 WAR) Trevor Rogers (2 WAR) Brandon Belt (1.5 WAR) A couple relievers (1-2 WAR) That is a very realistic offseason with very little chance of making us look back in two years and rue the day any of those moves were made.

We are not even close to being that far off. I mean the team would project a smidge over .500 even if you just filled out the roster with boring dudes on 1 year deals.

Well this is certainly going to have some implications

I think this is one of the consequences of banking Bellinger, is that guys looking for short term deals that are Mancini+ in caliber are only going to be okay with primary 1B/DH playing time if that's their only option. So that should conceivably keep Brantley as a LHH possibility, but probably eliminates names like Conforto and Gallo. I do generally agree though, which is why I'd like it if I saw names like Narvaez(instead of Vazquez) and/or Belt listed more prominently. I completely forgot Brandon Belt existed, he'd be kind of perfect. I know he had a pretty major injury, so maybe the quiet is a sign that he's not physically in a good place, but broadly even assuming some extra risk I think I like him more than anyone we've talked about except Brantley.

So based on the names we keep hearing, seems like most likely offseason on the position player side is Swanson, Vazquez, and Mancini. I'd guess the lineup would look something like this: 2B - Hoerner (110 projected wRC+) LF - Happ (114) SS - Swanson (104) RF - Suzuki (128) CF - Bellinger (97) 1B - Mancini (107) DH - Mervis (122) 3B - Morel (105) C - Vazquez (93) BN - Gomes (92), Madrigal (100), Wisdom (97), Mastrobuoni (103) Pros: - Very strong defensively, and that's backed by athleticism so you don't worry about the new shift rules - It's really deep. Between the bench, Iowa, and the positional versatility of Morel/Hoerner/Bellinger, the team can absorb an injuries or guys sucking. And even a couple injuries deep that should stay a fairly productive bottom of the order Cons: - The flipside to that depth is a lack of standouts on the offensive side. You probably need Bellinger, Seiya, or some of the youths could end up providing impact offense, but no one you can count on anchoring the lineup from day 1 - There’s no reliable source of LHH power. Despite the great season Happ had a power outage last year, we all know Bellinger's issues, and Mervis is a rookie. And none of the potential impact guys at Iowa are LHH either. That last point to me is why the Mancini interest is really lame. With Wisdom already around as a RHH corner guy I feel like offensive fit should be prioritized over defensive fit. As others have said, it's not the sexiest lineup but I do think it wins a lot of games, especially if the tradeoff for going Swanson instead of Correa and Mancini instead of Bell/Abreu is a more legit other SP. Someone like Bassitt or Eovaldi or Lopez.

I think generally folks are too down on Amaya right now, but hard to justify him in front of Canario. Like either you weight injuries really heavily or you don't. Also you probably ought to punish Davis more if you do? Similar on the pitching side, I get not abandoning Kilian, but feels like most arguments you could make for Top 10ing Kilian would say you probably need to stay high (higher?) on Wicks?

Ironic that in an offseason of SPs getting way more than expected the guy with a huge variance in opinions got exactly what MLBTR predicted. Really curious what Jed's got up his sleeve for the rotation. Someone we haven't talked about much is Eovaldi. His contract likely ends up pretty modest because of the qualifying offer. Wonder if Jed has the stomach to sign two QO guys, the second basically just cancels out the pick we get for Willson I believe.

I'm fairly all in on the idea that Swanson's just about done and everyone agreed to press pause until after his wedding. It makes a lot of stuff from the past 4/5 days fit together nicely.

I didn't realize until after I saw this and looked it up that Swanson is getting married tomorrow. I wonder if all the confidence from Crane et al is that the Cubs have a deal with him that's on like the 1 Yard line that's been put on pause because of the wedding.

Dan Szymborski, the projections guy, has said that you need a ton of PAs (IIRC something like 1500-2000) before you're better off trusting a hitter's actual L/R splits more than just generic L/R splits. For Morel specifically, his K/BB numbers were better against lefties, he just had a much higher BABIP and much higher HR/FB rate against righties. So even more than most guys feels like we should chalk that up to SSS. I'd guess Morel plays everyday, and mostly just moves around defensively based on matchups. Then Wisdom, who ironically was split neutral in '21 before having big splits in '22, is the guy whose play time is mostly as the RH counterpart for Mervis and Bellinger.

Yeah that's fair. I feel like "not the finishing piece" and "allowing them to act patiently" to me says that he's the complimentary guy, but the talk of building layers of depth and top non QO target would work the other direction. On the bat, that seems right? Let's say they come down with Swanson, Vazquez, and Brantley. This would be the position player group: C - Vazquez 1B - Mervis 2B - Hoerner SS - Swanson 3B - Morel LF - Happ CF - Bellinger RF - Suzuki DH - Brantley Bench - Gomes, Wisdom, Madrigal, one of Mastrobuoni/Mckinstry That's a full group. Madrigal making it to ST with the team in this scenario would feel unlikely, so they could add another player, but they'd still have Nelly (logical platoon option with Bellinger) or Higgins (Ross seems to like 3 catchers on the roster) in house that fit well on the end of the roster. I'd kind of guess if they do add a fourth position player it'll be someone low cost and highly specialized, like maybe a super fast outfield defense/baserunning threat, or a more defensive minded 3rd catcher than Higgins.