Bertz

The meltdowns this is going to cause are going to be pretty great

Yeah that's fair. Dodgers especially might be more "if not Yamamoto then Cease" than "Yamamoto or bust". It'd be cool if we knew that Jesus Luzardo and/or Framber Valdez are definitely available. That'd give enough chairs for everybody to end up with one unless the Angels truly plan to pull down Snell.

We know, you mention this every time they're brought up.

As gross as it is, we should all be rooting for the Yankees. The Mets, and increasingly it sounds like the Dodgers also, are not planning on going big game hunting at SP if they miss on Yamamoto.

I believe Theo confirmed pretty emphatically that they viewed the day games as a disadvantage on a baseball level. I think keeping the Friday/Saturday day games and otherwise operating as other franchises do (i.e. Sundays and getaway days) is probably the sweet spot.

Would hopefully imply he's close-ish to signing somewhere (by Christmas?), and mercifully open up the rest of the market

I think extremely highly of Tommy Hottovy, but I'm definitely starting to notice a pattern with the SP they bring in of really slow starts. Taillon, Stroman, even going back to Darvish all of these guys were a mess for their first half a season before getting things back on track. The Cubs' system seems to let them work pretty on the fly with relievers but there seem to be some initial growing pains with starters and as we look to be more competitive they'll have to shorten that timeframe.

I think talent/production wise they all look pretty similar. I want Imanaga the most, I love watching changeup/splitter guys, but clearly there's a little more risk than with the other two since he hasn't pitched stateside.

Probably not? He's likely looking at Taillon money, and I think that puts him in a weird middle area the Cubs likely won't be shopping in. It seems like they are going to look at the guys a tier up from that (Montgomery/Imanaga/Snell) and/or guys who can be had on one year deals (Bieber via trade, maybe someone like James Paxton or Sean Manaea in FA?). With their cadre of young pitching, the Cubs are in a position to bring in legitimate impact or short term guys who won't block anyone. I think from what Jed and Carter have said in between will largely be off the table.

That's a really good article. Nice find. I think what I saw from a Cleveland specific writer last week when that court date got pushed, and is backed up by this from ESPN, is that things are actually looking pretty decent for 2024. Diamond's going to pay most of their rights for 2024 and then dissolve. So it's afterwards where there's massive uncertainty. For us hoping to pick all the fat off of Cleveland's roster it probably doesn't change much, since Bieber is only on a one year deal and Naylor doesn't have guaranteed money for '25. It's more for anyone hoping that e.g. the Rangers or Angels keep away from Jordan Montgomery that it might be a very big deal.

Their leaderboards have a ton of stuff, which is great that it's available but can make things hard to find Leaders -> Pitching -> The year you want At the very top is a bunch of filters: Starter/Reliever, lefty righty, etc. Between that and the actual list of players you'll see a smaller box, and that has tabs for "Stats" (normal stuff you'd look up) "Pitch Level Data" (velocity, chase rate, etc.) and "Pitch Modeling". Stuff+ lives in that pitch modeling section. It's a bit silly how tucked away it is. Feels a bit like Dennis Duffy's coffee vending machine.

Fangraphs has them, but annoyingly not on individual player pages. What I normally do is go to the leaderboard, go to Pitch Modeling, and then filter to get the team I want https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=36&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=17&qual=20

Between this and all the deals he signed last winter I'm more and more convinced Preller does not expect to be running the Padres for more than another 2-3 years

It's wild that the position player market still isn't moving. Like I expected pitchers to largely wait for Yamamoto, but I figured we'd be seeing some major movement with the Hoskins and Garvers of the world by now. But as far as I can tell Candelario and Gurriel are the only guys to sign since Ohtani?

Not the most detailed look but appears that ZiPS still loves Bieber

I actually assume Smyly's time at Driveline is very much about "let's make myself the best reliever I can be." Last year after being demoted to the bullpen he sat 93-95 and generally shoved (2.51 ERA/3.28 xFIP as a reliever). If fully dedicating himself over the offseason to short relief for 60-80 innings he might get up another tick to 94-96 and really become a weapon.

Yeah I'm actually probably most worried about the arm. He apparently had great arm strength in the minors, so did his TJ temporarily reduce it or permanently reduce it.

That's what I'm wondering. Regarding Counsell, a lot of ink has been spilled about Brewers devil magic and what the implications are for the bullpen. One thing we have not probably talked about enough is Brewers devil magic and what that potentially means for Miguel Amaya. The bat already looks above average for a catcher, if he can take the sort of defensive leap that Omar Narvaez and William Contreras took their first years with the Brewers he's probably an impact player.

The more I come to grips with this being a no stars offseason, I do agree some variation of a Cleveland trade feels like a perfect fit. I tend to like door number 2, though I'd probably like to use Morel to defray the prospect cost (he's pretty comparable to Alcantara+Brown I'd reckon). I think my ideal offseason currently would be in the neighborhood of - Morel+ for Bieber/Naylor - Hoskins pillow contract - Trade for Jorge Polanco - Sign one of Imanaga/Montgomery/Snell Do something for the pen, with specifics TBD based on available budget. You've added a ton of talent yet the farm is mostly intact (if you use Morel neither trade will require a top 10 prospect) and there's little long term salary added. Unlike a lot of offseasons that avoid long term deals, you're not hitting a post-2024 wall because Naylor's in arb and Polanco has a club option, so you can easily choose to keep or dump either.

Snell is the pitching version of Matt Chapman. Even though he's objectively very good, he gets to his production in a way that's not ideal so he's not really anyone's first choice. I think he probably just hangs out until February and then gets one of the teams that got shouldered out of the other impact arms to give him what he wants. If a team wanted the best most unwatchable rotation possible they'd grab both him and Dylan Cease this winter.

Jeff Passan connected the Cubs to him a few weeks ago, but I don't think any of the local guys have corroborated that. A reunion with the Rangers has also been mentioned a bunch. I think Montgomery and Imanaga are tied very closely to Yamamoto. The Mets and maybe the Dodgers are only going to go big for a FA SP with Yamamoto, but the rest of his market teams plus a few others like the Cubs and Rangers seem likely to start moving onto the guys in the next tier as soon as that bidding has resolved. That does mean we're probably rooting for the Yankeees, Giants, or Red Sox to pull down Yamamoto. The Mets winning him reduces the supply of pitchers without reducing the demand for what's remaining.

https://theathletic.com/5146658/2023/12/19/sf-giants-shota-imanaga-free-agent Nice writeup on Imanaga from Grant Brisbee. Since the shopping lists for the Cubs and Giants overlap so much most of his free agent profiles this winter are actually pretty relevant for us

One thing fans are bad about that teams (mostly) aren't as guilty of is anchoring. Whether it's the draft or prospects or free agency fans will lock in on one or two or five guys and then it's a bit of an end of the world situation when the team doesn't come down with one of them. Sometimes that's fair. There is, barring someone wild being secretly on the trade market, simply no one that could have been acquired this year that comes close to the impact Ohtani and Soto will bring. But the player talent pool follows a bell curve. And the further you get down the list the less daylight there is between options. Once you pass or whiff on those top couple of options, guys just aren't that different. They likely have very different ways of getting to their production, and probably offer differing levels of risk, but with maybe a few edge case exceptions, 3 WAR is 3 WAR is 3 WAR. So you come to the Cubs. This team, while certainly needing help, only absolutely needs a 1B and one SP. It'd be nice to get a 3B, it'd be nice to add some LHH power, it'd be nice to add a fearsome late inning bullpen option or two. But they only have two absolute needs, and the middle infield is the only place you absolutely cannot add talent. So if Jed's plan is to add 10ish WAR this winter with ~$70M, he's got about 14 million ways to get there. And none of that is to say you should feel shame for being miffed when like the Mariners sign Rhys Hoskins. But do please keep in mind that right behind Rhys are Brandon Belt, Justin Turner, and Mitch Garver. Please at least wait for them to also get scooped up before jumping out the window.