Bertz

I also wonder if Imanaga’s specific salary allows for one path and after that closes it provides Jed some clarity. Shota is going to, setting aside the posting fee, cost at most about $20M per year, maybe something like Taillon’s $17M on the low end. Montgomery and Snell are going to be $25-30M. For a team that has 4-5 other holes to fill, that $5-10M can be significant. I wouldn't be surprised if Jed is hoping to land Imanaga, and if not pulls the rip cord and abandons the FA SP pool. For example: Plan A Cody Bellinger - $25M Shota Imanaga - $20M Robert Stephenson - $10M Anthony Santander (trade) - $12M Hunter Harvey (trade) - $3M Plan B Cody Bellinger - $25M Rhys Hoskins - $18M Robert Stephenson - $10M David Robertson - $10M Jesus Luzardo (trade) - $6M Broadly both plans are similar, but whether you utilize money or prospects to address SP impacts which resource you have to address one of the bats and one of the relievers.

Boston is not going to pull down one of the lefties. It's also become clear. if it wasn't already, why they had to double promote Breslow as opposed to getting someone who had already led a team before.

The deadline for this process to be finished, so like physical done, ink dry on the contract, etc. is Thursday at noon. So we probably find out today where he's going, certainly by tomorrow.

Two bits I think are worth sharing

Yeah I'd love for the team to have some 80 SB monster. I miss the days when those guys existed. One of my baseball hot takes is that there was some hidden value to those guys. It was overstated by the Ozzie Guillens of the world but I think it exists. Another belief I have, that doesn't tie into baserunning but does tie into irrationality, is that we need more "nose to toes" type hitters. Everyone wants a lineup with like 9 Juan Soto/Mookie Betts types but I'm convinced 6-7 Juan Sotos and 2-3 Javy Baez/Pablo Sandoval/Vlad Guerrero types is actually the optimal mix.

I'm not too worried about the position player group. There are SO many options at 1B/DH, and Mancini/Hosmer/Mervis were SO bad, that it's pretty easy to make up a lot of what went out the door in FA. And if Bellinger comes back, which I agree looks increasingly likely, it should be a better group than last year (and they were 9th in position player WAR last year). Not as good of a group as it could have been with like Juan Soto, but it should be a good group. Similar deal with the bullpen. Except for a stray Phil Maton mention real early in the offseason, all of the names the team has been connected to are pretty legit. We also got word that on Counsell's behest Jed is going to put more resources into the pen than he's traditionally comfortable with. I would expect two relievers of at least Michael Fulmer-eque ability, probably one guy at about that level and another guy significantly above. Something like e.g. Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore. Combine that with some of the youths like Little and Palencia being further developed and this will likely end up a much better group than last year. Where I am nervous is the rotation. There are ties to Imanaga and Montgomery, but not super strong ones. Aside from Cease (who does not feel likely) the pitchers on that level on the trade market there's some question how actually available they are. So it's looking increasingly likely that we're just going to run it back with Stroman? This is a group with enviable depth that could have used a crown jewel type, and so adding a mid-rotation starter feels like a missed opportunity. Especially since you'd expect a step back from Steele this year. There is, no matter what at this point, some significant missed opportunity this winter. This is certainly not going to be one of the offseasons we drew up in October. That said if you could promise me I'm not going to be pissed about the SP we wind up, I'd still feel pretty positive about the level of reinforcements we're going to wind up with.

They were reported to be sniffing around Imanaga a bit. Never seen as likely though, so yeah I think net net this doesn't move the needle much

It's fake. Exhibit A

On the pitching front the Yankees are 100% going to pull down Snell or Montgomery. The Rangers sound pretty heavy on Montgomery too. So there are roads to Jed being left holding the bag, e.g. Imanaga to the Angels, Montgomery back to Texas, and Snell to NYY. On the position player side though? Jed's set up incredibly well. Even if he misses on Bellinger there’s still a ton left on the market. That said I'd be shocked at this point if he misses on Bellinger. Boras would have to work some magic where the Nats want him to be their modern day Jayson Weth or something random like that.

https://theathletic.com/5182600/2024/01/05/shota-imanaga-mlb-free-agency?source=user-shared-article This is kind of wild, it basically poo-poos every team except the Red Sox, and if you read anything from the Rex Sox beat outside of The Athletic it sounds really unlikely they add a high priced SP.

We all should have guessed this would happen this weekend, the Mariners fan half of Cespedes BBQ posted this yesterday

Not sure this does anything major as far as Cubs implications go. The money, for 2024 at least, is roughly a wash. Giants still need a SP as Ray will be out most of the year. Probably makes them slightly more likely for Bellinger/Chapman, and a lot more likely for Hoskins or other RHH 1B/DH types?

So this is probably "it's just a little airborn" style coping but Then two sentences later So Mooney's cold water is not from the Cubs (which does not necessarily mean he's wrong)

How about this one? Cubs get: Jesus Luzardo, Tanner Scott, and Josh Bell Marlins get: Morel, Wicks, Alcantara, and a fourth piece of substance (Wesneski, Triantos, Mervis, Palencia, etc. depending on what they're feeling) Cubs do some one stop shopping and get a frontline SP, closer and other bat for under $30M. This lets Jed really slowplay the market from here to finish building out the team, while the Marlins get at least two immediate MLB contributors including that that offensive shot in the arm they've desperately been seeking. They also get out from Bell's contract.

The question on the pitching front is how realistically available are some of these names we've heard a little bit about. Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal for instance are better than any FA SP that is or was on the market this winter (no, I'm not forgetting about Yamamoto). Jesus Luzardo is comparable to the three lefties on the market right now and will make about as much over the next three years as any of the FAs will make per annum. I'm not too worried about Manaea or James Paxton being the sole guy. Jed's far too risk averse for that. Also if you read the article those names were brought up in more of a "these guys are also Boras clients" way than "these are the guys Jed's actually chasing" way. The entire theme of the article is that the offseason goes through Boras. I am getting a little worried that we are just going to re-up with Stroman though.

Per Mooney

I wonder if Amed Rosario would play 3B here? It's probably a no but: - After his down 2023 and given he is only 28 he's certainly looking for just a one year deal - He's more or less played himself off SS, but learned 2B basically on the fly with the Dodgers and was very good. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm but should have plenty for 3B - Offensively he's basically a less outlier-y Nick Madrigal. Plus contact, lots of chase, not a ton of slug, but also not a guy with so little power that teams literally play their outfield in - He's fast and mashes lefties, so even if he's not a starting caliber player he has skills that lend themselves well to a bench role Now why it may not work: - He's never actually played 3B. And while the numbers say he's no longer a shortstop, he might be reticent to actually concede that just yet because it lowers the cap on what kind of money he can make - While not as extreme as Nick Madrigal, he sort of fits the mold of Nick Madrigal in that he's contact over power. And we already *know* Madrigal is a whiz at 3B. This might be mystery box thinking on my part - He'd ostensibly be the 3rd bat. And the cost might not make sense for a guy you think probably solves 3B but you're not super sure

This feels right. I expect Jed is angling for the low end of door #2 or door #3, but it just takes one of the Angels/Rockies/Nats to cave in and Boras to get what he wants. I'll also say if Boras does agree to the third type of deal my confidence that Cody's Renaissance is for real will go up a little bit.

Fun fact, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have Imanaga as a better pitcher than Yamamoto on a per inning basis. I've been beating the Imanaga drum almost all offseason. I think every single mock I've done included him or Glasnow. I'm still mostly feeling good about this offseason and have been rolling my eyes at the fanbases histrionics, but if Jed misses on Shota I think that's when I join the masses and start getting pretty nervous. His major wart is he's given up a ton of dongs, but it seems to be a simple case of having a fastball that is better suited for the top of the zone than the bottom, while Japanese baseball is still mostly in its pound the knees / groundballs über alles phase. The velocity is not ideal given the other soft tossers we have, but then again every time push has come to shove Jed has backed off on that requirement. Much in the same way that I keep saying I'm going to grow up and stop eating poptarts for breakfast every morning and then drop that resolution when I run into the slightest inconvenience.

It's sticky because teams could potentially use it to hammer lower and mid-tier players, and as we know they don't need any additional help there. The two ideas I like are: - A transaction freeze over the holidays and a bit beyond. Something like the end of the winter meetings to 1/15 - An offseason trade deadline. Since it's not a signing deadline it shouldn't be anti-labor, but by closing off a bunch of avenues to change your team it should force execs to actually pick a lane and commit Neither of those would get us an NFL/NBA style bonanza, but would I think make most offseasons snappier akin to last winter.

I actually mostly agree on the offensive needs thing, we don't ideally want another RHH who's vulnerable to top of zone fastballs (that can be mitigated with our 2nd hitter though). But total package wise Chapman and Bellinger are very comparable players. Bellinger will get more years because he's younger, but you're expecting ~3.5 WAR from either in 2024.

- I would not expect Horton to start at Iowa. I think both for weather reasons and because I think they are going to want a deep well stocked Iowa pitching staff that will cause some trickle down. I don't think he'll be at Tenn forever but I would expect timing similar to Ben Brown last year. - I'd expect at least one, maybe both of Bote/Strumpf to finally get the ax. With Murray and McGeary coming up and Mastro potentially coming back down there's going to be a squeeze on that Iowa IF - Aliendo probably has to re-do Tenn, since one of the few things Jed has done this winter is add catchers on MiLB deals - There are several SPs who seem on the verge of being forced to the pen: Kohl Franklin, Riley Thompson, and Caleb Kilian. Porter Hodge got moved to the bullpen late last year but not sure if that's totally permanent. These are guys I could see becoming MLB relevant *very* quickly post conversion - He's more on the Christian Franklin level of prospect, but Ezequial Pagan was part of that SB -> Tenn end of season pipeline and is certainly worth paying attention to as well

Generally the really really good QB prospects are known multiple years out. Like Wrigley said there are exceptions like Burrow, but usually the super exciting guys are not popup prospects.