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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    So should we expect a poor return for our no. 1 pick? The Colts are not far removed from giving up a 2nd for a clearly washed Carson Wentz, I'm very much not worried about it.
  2. Bertz
    Matt Miller has Fields as having been better at draft time FWIW. Saying "but he went #11" is generally a tell for someone hot taking since A) most people at the time thought Fields should have gone higher and B) he was in a draft with 4 other very good QB prospects, including the guy most folks felt was the best QB prospect since Luck. Different drafts have varying levels of talent, and in particular the shape of the top end talent varies drastically.
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    I think this weekend was the first time they said it outright, but they'd really been pumping the brakes on expectations for him all offseason so I think they've expected for a while.
  5. Bertz

    NFL Playoffs

    Bertz replied to raw's topic in Other Sports

    Feeling great about hammering the live moneyline when it dropped to Buffalo -7. Sigh
  6. Bertz
    Yeah there's not really any ways to free up significant cash except Hendricks or Bote, which both feel unlikely. Madrigal would save you half a million, and Sampson would free up a little over a million, but those aren't moving the needle any. Also there is occasionally a margin of error of a couple million between the public accounting and what ends up being official. That article TT posted (which Sharma wrote like right before the Mancini news), said it was basically an either/or between getting a Chafin/Moore type and getting a Mancini type bat. That seems right, though I do wonder how much the guys one tier down like Will Smith and Zack Britton would cost. Or maybe this is where Jed finally hits the trade market? At this point I think it's basically a pick two between having money for the deadline, signing a Hoerner extension, and signing a reliever for more than $1-2M. My inference is that they couldn't work anything out with Hoerner, but we'll see.
  7. Bertz
  8. Bertz
  9. Bertz
    Yeah I'm very good with this as long as they're timely with swapping out Hosmer for Mervis once it's clear the trigger needs to be pulled there. For the lineup, something like this? LF - Happ RF - Suzuki DH - Mancini CF - Bellinger SS - Swanson 1B - Hosmer 3B - Wisdom 2B - Hoerner C - Gomes If Bellinger can get back to hitting, that lineup starts to get really fun.
  10. Bertz
    Totally agree. Timing would make sense too. Arb agreements being done means the team knows exactly what they have payroll wise and could unblock the last few offseason moves.
  11. Bertz
    Yeah it's probably the out of options thing (though IMO that'sa bit silly to worry about for a 31 year old making league minimumbut I digress). I wonder if that means they're bringing in two more relievers? Right now you have the following as locks: Alzolay, Thompson, Hughes, Boxberger, Wick Jed also seems to like to leave one spot for the Iowa shuttle, which brings us to 6 of 8 spots accounted for. Are those last two currently outside the org, or is it just one more veteran and then a more mopup-y long reliever like Sampson?
  12. Bertz
    Don't like, would have much rather held onto Leiter than several others particularly Rucker. The ceiling is lower with the piddling velo but he was very good in shorter stints last year.
  13. Bertz
    It's very simple, if you don't think Fields is all that good you trade him, otherwise hold onto him. The median outcome for even an elite QB prospect is something in the Kirk Cousins neighborhood of like 10th-12th best QB in Football. So to make a trade you must believe at least one of the following is true: 1. Justin's unlikely to clear the Cousins threshold 2. Bryce Young is a generational prospect. Like an actual generational prospect, not the way that people usually use it to mean "best guy in like 3 or 4 years" 3. Your odds of being right about Young are higher than all the coaches and GMs who've fallen in love with QBs before you 4. You can get more for Fields in trade than you can for the #1 Pick 3 is patently silly, while I've seen little indication 2 or 4 are true. Which basically leaves the being bearish on Fields justification. Which is totally reasonable just horsefeathering say it if you believe it.
  14. Bertz
    I don't have a PFF sub so I can't get super granular, but from what I have seen I think it's three things: 1. Like you said they graded much higher at run blocking than pass blocking (I know I saw numbers to this effect mid-season, doubt much changed) 2. PFF loved Jenkins and Jones, and thought everyone else was mediocre to bad. So even if we take their grades as gospel, the Bears line had glaring weaknesses that were exploitable 3. Justin does hold onto the ball too long at times. It was more consistently bad early in the year, but like there were multiple sacks in that last Detroit game that were totally on him. It never totally went away.
  15. Bertz
    Cubs got tied for the 2nd most votes in "Most Underrated System" and got some down ballot votes for "Best Farm," "Best at Developing Pitchers" and Best at "Developing Hitters."
  16. Bertz
    This presumably shifts Jazz over to become the primary SS, which might make the Marlins more likely to have interest in Madrigal? I remember reading early in the offseason they wanted to improve their contact, not sure if they consider that mission fully accomplished after signing Segura.
  17. Bertz
    This is a finding in the same vein as the OP, and a quick and dirty metric you can use for sussing out who is making good swing decisions. And once again gives you some reasons for optimism on Nelly Velazquez (who led the team last year) and Chris Morel (who was above the league average). Might also show where there's some low hanging fruit for Seiya, as he had a comically low in-zone swing rate. Unlike something like exit velocity though it's not unequivocally a positive. As mentioned Seiya came in below average, while Jonathan Villar finished 2nd on the team by this metric.
  18. Bertz
    I don't love the idea of trading for anyone except maybe Tee Higgins. He's a legit stud and young enough that you can sign him to a mega extension and he should be highly productive through all of it. But I feel like everyone else who's potentially available is either old enough to give you doubts or I question how impactful they truly are.
  19. Bertz
    For me I think the clear top priority for that last bench spot is mashing lefties. From there it's basically a choice of whether you want someone who can hold their own against righties too (someone like McCutchen) or someone who provides defensive value (e.g. Farmer or Adam Duvall). I lean toward the latter. I'm with you in not being especially worried about Morel's splits though. His peripherals were better against lefties than righties, so last year was likely a batted ball fluke. But as much as I'm a huge fan of Morel, he is a source of some elevated risk in the lineup. And even if he does produce, it'd be nice to have the freedom to move him around as needed and backfill him at 3B with a Mckinstry/Farmer platoon.
  20. Bertz
    He plays really good defense too, correct? Probabiy? He mostly plays shortstop, and is just okay there. But the little bit of 3B he's played the numbers have been good and generally you'd expect even a below average SS to be good at 3B.
  21. Bertz
    This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.
  22. Bertz
    With the Twins adding Correa, the Cubs should call them about Alex Kiriloff or Matt Wallner. It would be nice to have someone at Iowa breathing down the necks of Mervis and Hosmer for LHH 1B/DH at bats.
  23. Bertz
    Assume this iteration of the Correa deal goes through. Knowing what we know now about his injury red flags and where everyone's prices ended up exactly, which of the 4 shortstops would you have liked the Cubs to end up with? For me it goes: Turner Correa Swanson Bogaerts
  24. Bertz
    Unreal
  25. Bertz
    It's gonna be really hard for me to move off of this or thereabouts being the ideal scenario.
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