Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Not a routine play by any means, but if Hosmer's not gonna make plays like that to save Wesneski the error Mancini should be the one in the field
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Wesneski looking strong again.
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Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)
Bertz replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
I'd love to know the 4 teams. I guess Carolina, Las Vegas, Indi, and the Texans. The article mentions that one of the teams is farther back in the 1st round than you would expect. Not sure how I feel about that but I'm sure the haul would be massive if we moved down that far. That caught my eye too. Tampa or Baltimore? Panthers feel like the sweet spot though based on the majority of snippets that Poles said there and previously. - They're far enough back that you could reasonably see netting multiple Day 2 picks this year AND multiple future firsts - They're close enough to the top to still nab one of those "top 6-8 blue chippers" - Poles has referenced bringing back players in addition to picks, and Carolina has a few that would make a lot of sense - They appear to be sufficiently desperate to say horsefeathers it to cold surplus value calculations - They also make sense in a scenario where we trade back twice -
!!!!!
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Adding in here, looks like Smyly's spin on his curve was way up too? 2278 yesterday, averaged 2119 last year and 2096 the year before.
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Another positive I'd take away from yesterday is the velo. Smyly averaged 92.4 on the sinker and 88.8 MPH on the cutter. That sinker velo is right in line with what he did last year (averaged 92.7) and that cutter velo was actually a smidge better than his full-season mark (88.7). If you want some assurances that Smyly's the guy he was last year moreso than the guy he's projected to be, that velo holding is a key factor. And hell if he's at mid-season velo already in early March maybe he's got a little more in the tank heading into the regular season.
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I’ll have an update on Riley Thompson tomorrow! He worked out at Eric Cressey’s pitching center this winter. Good stuff that gives him a chance. Oh fun! I'm excited to see that.
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Because a couple of the Cubs' pitchers who can touch 100 MPH have gotten into the last few ST games, I've been thinking about Riley Thompson and Ryan Jensen. They're both presumed to open this year in the Iowa rotation, but how much more leash as SPs do we think they've got? Jensen reworked his delivery and it feels like there's some renewed hope for him making it as a SP. But Thompson is a really long shot at this point. I'd honestly send him straight to the pen, but certainly by Memorial Day if he hasn't changed our minds. Curious what the org's plan is for either.
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Phillies and Cardinals are pretty easy to see missing the playoffs. Phillies are very top-heavy, and particularly coming off that deep run last year I'd be nervous about each of their stars except Turner. Cardinals pitching is riddled with red flags, and post Bader trade the defense is more good than great. Dodgers also aren't invulnerable. I could see them being pretty disappointing in the first half, with them righting the ship eventually (they have too many options not to at some point) but too late to make the playoffs. Mets are old and Padres are thin, but I think even in the worst of scenarios they maintain WC spots.
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Iowa's going to have four guys in Correa, Burdick, Sanders, and Jensen who regularly hit 100 MPH. Riley Thompson when he shifts from starting to relief might end up there too. And Jeremiah Estrada, despite being more 96-98, has better stuff than any of them.
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Yeah, 6 guys in the everyday lineup have above average speed. And the bench should have some more available. I'm curious to see if it translates into steals or if it stops at guys taking the extra base here and there.
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It doesn't mean a ton, but it was a nice flex for the org's pitching depth. That Iowa bullpen is gonna be sort of outrageous.
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To my untrained eye Edwin Rios appears to be a dude.
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I don't love it, but it's not unreasonable. He's striking out at like a 50% clip in the early going here, and contact's something that if he had made major improvements over the offseason you'd likely see some indication in ST. I will say, if Morel's ticketed for Iowa and Seiya's likely out the first 2-3 weeks of the year, it leaves a lot more ambiguity around who rounds out the bench than I expected a month ago. Barnhart, Mckinstry, Madrigal, Rios, Deluzio? Nelly Velazquez maybe? Does Brennen Davis sneak in?
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I would love for Yelich to be a dirty rotten cheater, but it's just a combo of his kneecap exploding and his raw power being in the good-not-great sweetspot where he disproportionately benefited from the juiced ball.
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I'll add https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowelmi01.shtml I think with Bellinger the primary reason for optimism is that the decline is 100% attributable to the injury. Like it's a direct line. He hurt his shoulder, and since then there's been less thunder in the bat, evidenced a few ways but IMO most conclusively via his drop in top end exit velocity. He didn't start hitting a bunch of pop-ups or grounders, which would be a sign of Heyward-esque mechanical problems. His plate discipline didn't suddenly go to hell either (he's chasing more, but it looks like that's tied to him getting pitched around less). It's the injury. Full stop. Like I'm usually the annoying guy who can't go three sentences in April without saying "Small Sample Size." But like if Bellinger's got .900-something OPS two weeks into the season and a couple balls north of 110 MPH I'll already be fully bought in.
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Counterpoint: great time to get a glimpse at some of the organizations "rising stars" and lesser-knowns. Meh, its hard (at least for me) to parse through what is relevant and what is not relevant when it comes to Spring Training performances. Because of that I really don't care to watch spring training at all. I check back in this thread every 4-5 days to see whats going on It really sucks that most of the AZ stadiums don't have Statcast. Because it'd be a lot easier to find concrete things to hang our hat on. There are things like velo and exit velocity that mean something even in small samples and fake games. As it stands I know there was a study a few years ago that mentioned that ST walks and strikeouts had a little bit of predictive value. So I know I'll personally be looking at those for the kids and also Bellinger.
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2022-2023 Offseason Top Prospects List
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year? I wouldn't be surprised with a little bit of time at Myrtle late in the year after that last big wave of promotions. A la Koen Moreno last year. Really the type of guy who makes you miss having short season leagues. -
Let's assume Seiya has to miss opening day and Davis has a really big spring. Do you give him the primary RF job until Suzuki gets back? He's got nearly 250 PAs at AAA, plus this will be his second spring training largely in big league camp, plus his alt-site time in 2020, plus a smidge of AFL time. He's got a decent amount of experience against MLB-adjacent pitching, even if much of it came last year while he was physically impaired by the back issue.
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Yeah I think Transactions is the toughest call among the sports focused forums. I'd lean keeping it separate, but at the same time Cubs discussions is a ghost town during the offseason because the most natural thing to talk about are Transactions.
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The messaging on the Seiya stuff is a little all over the place. A couple things that were said that make me think he'll be back by opening day and this is largely a big to-do because they're being mindful of how bad he wanted to play in the WBC, and there's a few things that were somewhat ominous make me think the over/under on him getting back is May 1st.
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Timing is as fortunate as could be but still have to imagine this keeps him out the first few weeks of April
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Let's horsefeathering go!