Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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He probably won't work deep inti the game, but Miller is really good. I'd love to win tonight and lock in that series W before we see all thia velo tomorrow
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Yeah what we've seen thus far is the vastly improved BB/K numbers and some help from the shift ban. Those two things are probably enough to keep his wRC+ in the 110 range. He has to hit the ball harder to get all the way back though. But power is the streakiest aspect of a hitter's skillet so nothing says more of the juice in his bat can't also reappear as well.
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I really wanted Waldichuk last summer. It looks like his Stuff+ numbers are way down on his fastball and curve YoY. That Montas trade is looking like a wash all around.
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I've said this in another thread or two, but I'm in no rush to call Morel up. The team sent him down to prioritize his development, so let's leave him down and prioritize his development. Last year Morel had the worst in-zone contact rate in baseball. We don't have apples to apples comparisons with minor league data, but he's currently swinging and missing more than he did last year in MLB (18.1% Swinging Strike Rate last year, 18.8% at Iowa this year). He's hitting a ton more fly balls (and clearly hasn't lost any juice in the bat in the process) which is the other thing he needed to work on, but he's not a finished product. All in all I'd much rather him come up in June and play at a 3+ win pace rather than have him come up right now and play at a 2.5. On Wisdom, I think this is more or less just a hot streak. He's making more contact than normal, but if you go on Fangraphs and look at a rolling average of contact rate he's had periods at this level over the last two years. I'm much more moved by his glove at 3rd, which has been great. It looks like we've got 2021 Wisdom’s glove with 2022 Wisdom’s bat, which is a quality 1st division starter worth ~2.5 WAR.
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Yeah it's really encouraging. Even for the things where you can pick nits like them missing deGrom, they are balanced elsewhere (getting both Burnes and Woodruff, getting both Castillo and Gilbert). I think you mentioned a week or two back about being able to break this early season into blocks. and that's how I've been looking at it too. There's a hellish stretch that starts in mid-May that goes @ Twins @ Astros @ Phillies Vs. Mets Vs. Reds Vs. Rays @ Padres I think if they come out of that still at or at least approximately at .500, I'll be pretty much all in.
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One of the PD focused FO guys, I think Banner, actually called out exactly what TT said. Their high level approach to pitching dev goes Improve Velocity -> Improve Shape/Movement -> Improve Command So you've got a bunch of guys right now who have either improved velo or new/changed movement profiles on their pitches. It's going to take a bit to learn to harness them.
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There's a part of me that's the baseball fan equivalent of the Sickos meme, and likes seeing players be highly productive in weird ways. That part of me weirdly hopes that PCA doesn't improve his plate discipline, because I think there's still a chance for him to be a 4 or 5 WAR guy through sheer dongs and defense. Something like Byron Buxton without the whole being made of glass aspect. But if he does improve his discipline, there's a real chance for an MVP caliber player. The offensive bar is going to be so low for him, he only needs to put up something like a 125 or 130 wRC+ to crack 7 WAR. That's a top ~50 wRC+ so I don't want to minimize it too much but ALSO he's going to probably run really high BABIPs so he's going to get a good head start offensively as well.
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Not actually that bad from a run standpoint, but hilarious that basically every call against the Dodgers happened in the bottom of the 9th
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Hopefully Hayden can have a good game. The pitch modeling data is unmoved on thinking he's a star, so hopefully he just needs to beat up on a team to get his swagger back. Although for as bad as Oakland is their offense has been okay thus far its the pitching that has been nightmarish
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I think it's quite the opposite honestly. The Cubs' pen at the moment has the 2nd lowest FIP in the league and are tied for the best xFIP. The problem is a distinct lack of a lockdown option. Fulmer and Alzolay have each shown signs of being that guy, and Estrada's probably the favorite to end up that guy by mid-season, but right it's depth over impact. Put another way, I'd trust any of the Cubs relievers with a 3 run save, but I don't trust any of them in a one-run deal.
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The ump scorecard for this game is gonna be a doozy
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Really enjoyed Boog putting Sutcliffe on blast for not understanding how to do an ad read
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That's Bellinger's hardest hit ball since the shoulder injury
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-16-23
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
After today Ballesteros is hitting .250/.367/.500 with 5 walks and 6 Ks Cristian Hernandez is hitting .350/.409/.600 with 2 walks and 4 Ks -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-16-23
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
McGeary doesn't seem long for SB. Maybe it's just a hot streak but honestly feels more like he's just too advanced. -
It's largely procedural I doubt he boarded a plane but Nelly got "sent down" last night for Hughes FWIW
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I have zero issues with any of the pitching decisions or performances last night. Guys executed, they got BABIP'd in the ninth and that's all she wrote. It sucks but there's not really much to take away from it IMO. But yeah, we need to clean up the position player group, and start with ending the Hosmer era. Mervis can wait a beat, they're about to face a stretch with a ton of lefties, but I want Hosmer gone after Bellinger's paternity stint. Nelly Velazquez should come up today for Bellinger, and then stay up via Hosmer. I'd also like to see Torrens get some run here. If/when he can't get it going against this stretch of lefties, it'll be clear there's not really anything there and then we can start Mervis time. Morel can wait a bit. His swing and miss hasn't really improved at all. He's hitting the ball in the air, which is great, but there's still work to do.
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His .421 OPS thus far?
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That's such a crummy blown slave. None of those balls were hit that hard
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That felt like the first time this year I felt Keegan was fully back. Had the full velo and the breaking pitches working. He's had great results to this point but it felt a little smoke and mirrors-y when he was sitting 92-93.
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It seems like at this point JD never makes the west coast trips? Not sure if that's a JD preference or if they need give Sutcliffe X number of games and they decided might as well choose the West Coast trips?
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Wonder if Hughes is going to be allowed into a game this tight right away. This block of lefties is going to come back around at least one more time, and presumably it'll be really late.
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That Taillon sinker is nasty. Eno Sarris wrote about it a bit earlier this week
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Wowza that was a hell of a catch from Bellinger
