Bertz

Left handed Ben Brown and...we don't have a great comp for Ortiz. Matt Shaw who's a little less toolsy but major league ready right this second?

The Brewers have a chance to be pretty bad. They have enough sophomores and prospects in the upper levels that they could make the transition somewhat smooth, but Wade Miley is their #2 SP and their best hitter might be their catcher? Like you don't have to squint to see them net a lottery pick.

https://twitter.com/abeds15/status/1753211959313379587?t=55KBq7ISjUhgxm8rO0H7KA&s=19 Okay this one might be a thing

I think Morel's trade bait unless/until his bat reaches an impact level or he finds a home defensively. Right now there's room on the roster for him, but by August if PCA and Caissie aren't already up they are likely pounding on the door, and odds are one of the kids opening at Tennessee goes supernova and is doing the same. We'll also generally know by then if Busch is the goods. If Morel hasn't locked down everyday playing time outside of DH by then you've gotta cash him in as a trade chip with a team that can use him at 2B or in the COF.

This is obviously meaningless, but like we're a couple hours away from February so whatever

I really get the vibe that Preller doesn't expect to be the GM in San Diega in 3 years and so all of these ludicrously long contracts are a "not my problem" deal.

I'd guess it's closer to a 50/50 split going forward. Ross broke in Amaya very gingerly, but that's because he was big into the softer factors of catching and Miguel joined the big league club mid year. Hendricks (who calls his own game) and the kids (who Amaya had worked with in the minors) got quite a bit of Amaya starts. I expect in 2024 as a from the jump member of the MLB team I don't expect him to get fairly even billing behind the plate. I don't think there's a ton of upside in grabbing an alternative to Amaya either. Catching prospects (and honestly veterans too) are notoriously fickle because of the rigors of the job. Amaya looks like an above average bat (by catcher standards), an above average framer, and got fairly glowing reviews for his leadership behind the plate last year. The one bugaboo last year was his throwing. That was actually a reported strength coming up through the minors, so there's some hope that another offseason removed from Tommy John surgery helps there.

I still think one of the DH's can be a fit even after Bellinger. It pushes Morel into more of 10th man role but that's fine. We know Counsell is big on load management, we know there will be IL trips, etc. It makes it a little harder for PCA, Caissie, etc. to force their way onto the roster, but depending on your POV that might be more feature than bug. I think the potential limiting factor is more resources than playing time. TBD on how many dollars Jed still has in his piggyback, but for me the priority list for the rest of the offseason would go: 1. One of the Boras 4 (probably Bellinger) <large gap> 2. Late inning reliever 3. Additional Bat <medium gap> 4. High-end Rehabbing pitcher (Woodruff or Hendriks) 5. Middle Inning Lefty Reliever The team doesn't necessarily need all five of those things, but if Jed comes down with three of them (inclusive of #1 obviously) I'll be pretty happy with how this winter ultimately turned out.

"Owen Caissie: Consensus Top 50 Prospect" is something I think is pretty warranted but still shocked to see. I'm looking forward to the pretzels Keith Law ties himself into when he leaves him off of his list though. He was doing his Keith Law thing last summer and talking down to everyone excited about him because of the K rate. A little surprised at no Busch or Alcantara. I feel like leaving either off is fine but both is weird since they're so diametrically different (extreme tools and ceiling vs. extreme production and floor).

A lot of really great stuff here! I especially want to see Smyly move towards a real slider. Like you pointed out his death knell last year was the reverse splits. I'd love for him to get back to getting lefties out even if he gave back some of his ability to handle righties. Having a lefty long man that we could piggyback with Taillon would be pretty savvy IMO. One thing I'm trying to be very mindful of this year though is not buying too much into any pitch design stuff. I think the Taillon sweeper saga was my "fool me twice, shame on me" moment. When this stuff was newer there was a ton of low hanging fruit and the success rate was extraordinarily high. But now that it's been a few years I think we've reached the "there's no free lunch" zone. Guys will obviously make changes and level up, but I need to see it in real games before I buy in too hard. Either way, I don't love Smyly getting another shot at the rotation. I'm not as down on him as most, but I think in order to forego leaving a lane open for Wicks/Brown/Assad I would need someone who has a reasonable shot of throwing up 3 WAR. If Jed wants to do a late trade for Bieber or Luzardo cool, but we don't need Smyly in the rotation, don't need to sign a Hyun Jin Ryu, etc. There were scenarios where Jed purged some pitching depth in trade where a vet #5 starter made sense (e.g. Soto), but it looks like we're past the possibility of anything like that happening.

Given the Cubs open in Arlington this is notable, especially paired with half their rotation eying a 2nd half return.

That sounds pretty fair. Given all the injuries there's a decent chance that Harvey's medicals are a huge mess, but talent/control wise that feels in the right neighborhood. Similarly I tend to think Canario+ for one of the Marlins lefty relievers makes a ton of sense for both sides.

If the pen had another closer caliber arm it would be a legitimate impact unit IMO. Aiming a little lower, I wouldn't hate a boring-ish (but still quality) middle relief lefty like a Scott Alexander. Not an absolute necessity with the guys already in house but I think it'd help.

This is...uhh...not especially subtle

This gets to why I *really* hope we can get Bellinger to go the Carlos Correa route and take a deal where he probably opts out again in a year. I'm not so naive to think every prospect is going to succeed, but like holy crap is our 1B/OF situation crowded. Attrition can hit this group hard and I think we still end up with pretty enviable depth in a few years. I like the way you put it out but put another way: - Two fringe MLB All Star corner outfielders under 30 (Happ, Suzuki) - Two consensus top 100 prospects in CF, one who's already gotten a taste of MLB (PCA, Alcantara) - Two consensus top 100 prospects at 1B/COF. One who is about as MLB-ready as a prospect can possibly be (Busch, Caissie) - A consensus top 100 infielder who some people think should shift to CF (Triantos) - I don't have a pithy way of bucketing him but Christopher Morel - Five more quality prospects who might impact the 1B/OF mix (Ballesteros, Canario, Franklin, McGeary, Murray) All of this is already at AA or higher, meaning an ETA within a year is reasonable if not the expectation. If Bellinger's a 125 wRC+ guy who cares, he's a star and we'll happily figure out how to fit all the pieces together. If he's more like a 110 guy, which a lot of the data from last year points to, that still helps the 2024 Cubs a ton. But in '25 and beyond? While he's still a quality player I'd much rather have 1B/OF be Happ, Suzuki, and the kids and have that $25M back to reinvest elsewhere.

It's not a bad question. So looking at a leaderboard for last year, if we add up putouts and assists the guys who played 3B full time had between 350-400. So let's call it 2.5 chances per game? My guess is it would vary significantly game by game though. With Jameson Taillon on the mound, a righty flyball pitcher, you might get one or two. With Jusin Steele on the mound, a lefty groundball artist, you probably get like 6 or 7. TT's thrown around 3B being very matchup dependent. And you've hit on one of the considerations, matchups don't have to just be the opposing starting pitcher. Assuming no more logs are thrown on the 3B fire I'd guess we'll see Madrigal start damn near every Justin Steele and Jordan Wicks game. But with righties on the mound, or at least flyball lefties like Imanaga, I think there's a little more freedom to play Morel or Wisdom or Busch there.

Even the Angels signed Aaron Hicks, which doesn't prevent a Bellinger signing but is a weird thing to do if you're planning to add yet another OFer. My guess is they're Snell or bust. Bellinger's options are the Cubs or doing the Jayson Werth thing and going to a bad team on the upswing but still a year or two early. Tigers maybe? I'm interested in the DH market too. JDM, Jorge Soler, and Brandon Belt should all get 8 figure deals. Then there's an army of lesser guys (e.g. Carlos Santana and Eddie Rosario) who will get closer to $5M. The Mets seem liable to add one of the primo guys, and there've been rumblings about a Belt/Bochy reunion in Texas, but I have no idea who will sign the third one. Plenty of other teams can still use DH help but they're cheaper teams I expect to shop in the Santana tier. If Jed wants one of the primo DHs it seems like at least one will be there on a silver platter for him.

Not exact, but equivalent from us would be something like Polanco for: Drew Smyly Julian Merryweather James Triantos Brody McCullough I know Trueblood thinks he couldn't handle 3B but I'm not sure it's that definitive so I probably have done this deal. Definitely would have wanted to if we hadn't pulled down Busch already.

You haven't looked at the other teams in the central have you?

Yeah if true the way I see it there's four possibilities 1. They sign one of the Boras 4, with Snell being the most likely 2. They are trading for Dylan Cease 3. They are finally trading Miller/Woo for a comparable young bat 4. Jerry does one of his classic "trade two quarters for five dimes" type of deals where he just rearranges the Mariners roster out of impulse Any of the trades can involve the Cubs. We did see that rumor that he was talking to the Cubs about Madrigal, and Morel is an obvious fit there as well. And even a FA move would have market impacts, even if it's Snell who we don't think Jed is in on.

There is scuttlebutt on Twitter that the Mariners are about to do something big.

Baseball-Reference has them, but not broken out by level. That's the best I've seen since MinorLeagueSplits.com went under unfortunately

I think, broadly, they're the same caliber of player and at positions of similar need for the 2024 club. So I think it's helpful to look at a list of pros and cons for each. Bellinger Pros - Bellinger is 2.5 year younger. This is a huge deal on long term contracts - Bellinger's offensive style fits the club better. Chapman is a RHH hitter with poor contact, particularly on pitches up, and light tower power. We already have two of those in Wisdom and Morel, they just can't play anywhere near Chapman’s caliber of defense - Bellinger's already tight with the team, showed he works well with the coaches, etc. Basically he's shown he's an A+ fit with any soft factors you might consider - Bellinger can float between 1B or any OF spot and play plus defense. As he gets older he should be able to gracefully slide down tbe defensive spectrum. Chapman’s a superb 3B defender, but that's that. And when he gets older 1B is the logical transition spot - Bellinger doesn't cost a draft pick. There is the opportunity cost of the pick we would gain if he signs elsewhere, but even there we're talking pick ~75 vs. pick ~45 Chapman Pros - Chapman’s probably going to get quite a bit less money. Jeff Passan ballparked it as $175M for Bellinger and $125M for Chapman - Chapman is a MUCH safer bet to perform. Last year's 3.5 WAR was the worst season of his career on a per inning basis, he'd never been below 4 (on a prorated basis his rookie year and 2020) before that - I think most of us would agree that we feel better about the internal options at CF and 1B more than 3B. So on this roster replacement level is a lower bar for Chapman to climb over I've said this elsewhere but essentially what it boils down to for me is I think Chapman’s a better option purely for 2024 while Bellinger is a guy I'm more likely to still want on the team in the back half of his deal.