Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I think he's been there for a few years personally. But yeah it's him and Rosenthal and then a huge gap in reliability to like the Heyman's of the world.
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So this was the payroll analysis I did at the beginning of the offseason. At that point I found payroll for 2025 at the start of next offseason was $145-150M, pending anything Jed did this year and with a little wiggle room for arb raises and non tenders. The only guaranteed money for next year Jed added this winter was Shota. So let's call it $160-165M, at a minimum, plus potentially Bellinger's $27M and Neris' $9M. So on the low end the Cubs have ~$40M to spend next winter and on the high end closer to $80M.
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Nope, it's one per player per lifetime so when Bellinger leaves it'll be like Stroman.
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This is great, I've been stumping for a deal like this all winter. - If Cody is repeats last year, by doubling down and proving it wasn't a fluke he easily gets his $250M+ next winter - If he's more solid, let's say he hits to his projections or a little north of them, I think he gets his $150-200M. He'll have thrown off the QO and proven that '21-'22 Cody isn't coming back through the door - From the Cubs POV we likely get him for a year or two to provide coverage across 1B and the OFZ while the prospects matriculation up from the upper minors The one quibble I have is that it's a three year deal if things go south. The team already has A LOT of talent falling off between '26 and '27, including Happ and Suzuki. Obviously if he hasn't opted out by then things aren't going great but still I'd want to have at least one warm body left in the outfield.
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The new market inefficiency is outfielders who've been basically dead for the better part of two years
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I read this AM they told him he will 100% start at Iowa. They want him to make up for lost time and get consistent everyday at bats and build his confidence back up.
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Caleb Kilian might become a thing again when he shifts to short relief
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Was PCA crossing homeplate before the ball even hit the wall?
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Is my computer having a stroke, or is the CF camera broadcasting in standard def while literally every other camera is in normal HD?
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I assume we're going to do a ST games thread, but didn't want to start since not sure if we'd do it here in Cubs discussions or the regular season IGT forum
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2016 World Series Game 7 watch-along with Maddon/Francona
Bertz replied to Irrelevant Dude's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think his head got REALLLLLLLLLY big after the World Series. He might have always been like this, but one thing I noticed afterwards was that he became completely unable to admit even the smallest of mistakes. Given the palpable tension between him and Theo/Jed the last year or two, I'm guessing he was just as bad if not worse behind closed doors. There were also his really super messed up remarks during the Addison Russell saga, which I think started the turn against him with the fans. Hopefully being out of the game and/or his embarrassing tenure with the Angels has mellowed him back out. Because while the above isn't great, it's not nearly bad enough to where he can't show his face around town again. -
I'm expecting Wesneski to start, whether that's at Chicago or Iowa. I think, particularly given that Jed didn't tap into any of the SP depth in trade, it would have been very easy to give him the Michael Fulmer slider specialist role. Instead, the team traded for Yency Almonte to be New Fulmer. That's not to say we can't have two or anything, but adding Almonte was a weird choice if Hayden is going to be in short relief in the immediate term. Wesneski is not my current top choice to win the 5th starter spot as is, but ironically I'm hoping he wins it. I think his issues are pretty clear cut, and so if the team at the end of March thinks he's checked all the boxes and is one of their top 5 options I will absolutely believe them. And I think his ceiling is substantially higher than any of Smyly/Assad/Wicks.
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If I'm Statcasting correctly it's Chris Devenski https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=R&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=50&sort_col=api_break_x_batter_in&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_release_pos_x=on#results
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Before this weekend when PTR more or less squashed any hopes of crossing the LT, I was of the mind that Montgomery or Snell actually helps the 2024 team more. My thought was the incremental improvement over Wicks is similar to Bellinger's incremental improvement over PCA/Tauchman, but I think the roster can accommodate a ~1.5 WAR veteran DH (e.g. Belt) better than a ~1.5 WAR veteran SP (e.g. Lorenzen) However, implicit in that is an ability to cross the LT. If that's off the table and Jed's only got one move to make, I don't think I'm as keen on the SPs as I was before. I think also Montgomery is the least likely of the 4 to take a short term offer and get back on the market next winter. He didn't get QO'd, which is one of the tangible benefits any of the other three would get by trying again next winter.
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So this is one of the things I was thinking of. https://theathletic.com/1646799/2020/03/04/sarris-whats-more-important-for-a-pitcher-command-or-stuff?source=user-shared-article I can't find the other rattling around my head, but it was basically what 1908 shared but in article form. Run values for like 90-92 on the black are higher than they are for like 97-99 down the middle. I don't remember exactly where those lines cross but I believe it was approximately 6-7 MPHs on average. This also doesn't take extreme spin/movement profiles like Steele or Shota into account, but again we're keeping to generalities.
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Fun article on Cuas. I still like him a lot. As Baumann gets into in the article he couldn't locate his sweeper for horsefeathers last year, but I'm hopeful a winter and spring with it offers him a modicum of command. The velo's below average but the angle and the movement makes him really pop off in the various Stuff models.
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It begins
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I conceptually agree that ST is largely eyewash, but my understanding is that the guys who sign really late tend to underperform expectations at a statistically significant clip. Maybe it's less baseball and more soft factors (getting your kids into school, finding a condo, etc.) but my understanding is that the data bares it out as being an issue. That said the last time I saw research on it was like 6-7 years ago (I remember it being relatively fresh when we signed Darvish). With all the advances in tech and the ubiquity of like Trackmans and high velo pitching machines, I'd believe the issue is now moot. Unfortunately we've had very few instances of notable late signings post COVID (there were a bunch post lockout but the whole league was in the same boat). Jurickson Profar last year and Jackie Bradley Junior the year before were disasters, but that's just a sample size of two and they were a substantially lower class of players than what we're talking about.
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My understanding from most recent research is that the game works the other way around. Elite stuff provides you opportunity to make mistakes in the zone, and is much more likely to draw chase out of the zone. All else equal 90 on the corner gets hit a hell of a lot harder than 99 down the pipe.
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I think this is less of a concern than it was a few years ago. Steele and Shota don't throw hard but are plus stuff guys even by objective measures. The immediate 5th starter options (aside from Wesneski) are all some degree of soft tossing, but Brown and Horton are right behind that group and very much premium stuff/velo options. I think it does make you kind of wonder about giving Wicks or Smyly that 5th starter spot and leaning more towards Assad or Wesneski. Even though each of them has a very different movement profile and secondaries, having 3 or 4 lefties in your rotation throwing 92-93 seems potentially problematic?
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Pete Crow-ArmstrongCade HortonMatt ShawOwen CaissieKevin AlcantaraMichael BuschJordan WicksBen BrownMoises BallesterosJefferson RojasJames TriantosBJ Murray JrAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsMichael AriasLuke LittleDrew GrayCristian HernandezHaydn McGearyChristian Franklin
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Yeah I think, especially since one of the logical ways to bridge a big gap is to go the short term deal with opt outs path, they're playing a real dangerous game. I think, Bryce Harper aside, just about all the guys who have signed super late have struggled that season. And then spring training is too long, but not for starting pitcher. The hitters can hold off for the first week of March, but if I'm the pitchers I want to be in camp by next week to make sure I don't torch my 2024. I think, especially with how all of these guys' markets are interconnected, at least one of them ends up pretty boned. I'd be shocked if JDM isn't already boned. Like it's going to make a major injury or two to bail Boras out here.
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I would push back on this a bit. Despite all the whining about rust there's major major value in getting the bye, and we have seen teams operate accordingly (e.g. the Braves continuing to pile on this winter). There's not much value in a team like the Cubs going from the 5 seed to the three seed, but there is more value at the top end of the league and of course the middle class of the league that wants to grab that 5/6 seed.
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And this great article from Jeff Passan is probably a good place to start https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39533275/mlb-expansion-32-teams-line-cities-nashville-montreal-portland-salt-lake-city-orlando-charlotte Some highlights:
