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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I like him a lot. He had some high profile blowup but he basically had to remake himself on the fly. If he'd gotten 4-6 weeks at Iowa people wouldn't have such a sour taste in their mouth about him.
  2. Bertz
    Just thinking about this a bit more. I don't expect Jed to push his chips in this aggressively, but this fits what we think payroll will be and is probably one of the five best position player groups in baseball, no? Pretty clear #1 defense and top 10 offense? LF - Happ DH - Morel RF - Suzuki CF - Bellinger 3B - Chapman SS - Swanson 1B - Busch C - Gomes 2B - Hoerner With a top 3 farm system ready to back it up. The pitching staff is probably two guys light, but then again the farm will help there too plus the defense will make the whole thing play up.
  3. Bertz
    As a lefty who can handle the ball up Busch is a good offensive complement to Matt Chapman...
  4. Bertz
    Here's the thing. The Cubs now have two good defensive 3B whose bats we don't totally trust (Madrigal, Mastro), and three good offensive 3B whose gloves we don't totally trust (Wisdom, Morel, Busch) Either Matt Chapman is a lot more likely than we're collectively expecting, or the team feels at least one of those latter 3B options is actually adequate defensively.
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    FWIW - All of these are right in line with the MLBTR estimates though so nothing really changes
  8. Bertz
    A few stray thoughts, some of these have been touched on I think. - Odds PCA opens the year in MLB are basically nil now. No way two opening day spots are manned by rookies with 100 MLB plate appearances between them - That in turn makes me even more sure Bellinger is coming back (I was like 85% sure this morning, I'm 90-something now) - I don't think staying under the LT is the plan, but it's certainly more feasible than it was a few hours ago - Adding a second substantial SP feels much more likely now than it did prior. Conversely adding a second FA bat isn't as much of a certainty anymore (though I'd guess it's still more likely than not) - Feels pretty likely that one of Morel/Busch is the everyday 3B, or Morel's about to be traded. It doesn’t HAVE to be either/or, but it feels pretty either/or - Another trade is probably not far behind this. Even if it's just a minor cleaning up the 40 man sort of deal - Between this and the low AAV on Imanaga, I think it's very likely that Jed pays market price on a FA reliever like Hicks or Stephenson
  9. Bertz
    Among 410 pitchers with 40+ IP last year, he was 55th in Stuff+ per Fangraphs. Command is pretty iffy but he's a guy, and that's before any pitch lab tweaks the team might have cooked up. If he's clearly the lesser of two RPs we acquire I feel pretty good about him.
  10. Bertz
    Really good call from Brett here. The Cubs actually know Busch as well as anyone because of Kelly.
  11. Bertz
    Let's assume the plan is still Bellinger and Hoskins. You'd have a lineup of something like Happ (LF) Hoskins (1B) Seiya (RF) Bellinger (CF) Swanson (SS) Hoerner (2B) Morel (DH) Busch (3B) Gomes (C) No superstar bat, but every spot in that lineup projects north of league average except catcher, and Gomes/Amaya are likely above average offensively by catcher standards.
  12. Bertz
    ZiPS projects Busch to a 109 OPS+, -2 runs on defense, and 2.5 WAR. There's not a ton left in the tank IMO but you absolutely trade any teenage arm in A ball for that. 100 times out of 100. Great trade from Jed, even though I like Ferris more as a prospect.
  13. Bertz
    WOW! There's a LHH power hitter and a 3B all in one go. I did not expect an option like this to be on the market, very very cool. I do think Busch is overrated but he absolutely fills a need here.
  14. Bertz
    Sinker/slider guy with good extension, Tommy will love him
  15. Bertz
    I think the expectation is two bats and two relievers. With the smoke around Bellinger and Hoskins, combined with the fact that it's pretty tough to see a lot of alternatives for either of them them (Giants for Hoskins...and who the heck knows for Bellinger), I'm starting to chalk them up as more or less inevitable. The relievers it would be foolhardy to anchor onto one or two. Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore have each gotten mentions, and they're the approximate level of cost and impact I expect so they're the placeholders in my head right now. Chris Morel and the trade market are where I think there's some opportunity for wiggle room. My expectation at this point is they're just going to try and make Morel at 3B work. If it doesn't, Madrigal can step in and be adequate until one of the youths or the trade deadline can address the position more satisfactorily. If he doesn't get run at 3B, he would seem to be a trade chip. We know from all the local writers Jed's been working the phones with other teams pretty hard. I expect a couple of trades, even if they're minor ones around the bullpen or bench.
  16. Bertz
    Why would they decline the option if he's good? We live in a world where Sean Manaea got 2/26 after showing a new pitch and some brief strong performance. If Shota's putting up 3 WAR seasons no one's going to flinch about holding onto him at 3/50. He'll be 32 not 42.
  17. Bertz
    This is a pretty good deal for both sides and I wonder if we see this sort of thing more often for high variance guys. If I read this right, then basically: - If Shota's good or great it's 5/80 - If Shota's average-ish it's 2/30 - If Shota's bad/hurt it's 4/53
  18. Bertz
    Again keep in mind that Heyman is usually quite plugged in with Boras
  19. Bertz
    Yeah based on when I looked at future payroll, I expect that over the next three offseasons Jed is only going to make 2-3 more long term contracts of substance. He is absolutely not going to use two of those limited bullets right away this offseason. Smart money for the rest of this winter is one of Bellinger/Chapman, a 1B/DH of the opposite handedness (lets say Hoskins and Belt respectively), and two setup caliber relievers. Maybe another pre-FA SP like is being discussed in the other thread or some fiddling with the bench.
  20. Bertz
    I think I like Assad as a starter more than most, but yeah I'd still like to dangle Morel in front of teams like the Mariners and Tigers and grab an optionable young starter like a Bryan Woo or a Reese Olson.
  21. Bertz
    Matt you've brought up a modified 6 man rotation before and I'm wondering more and more if that might be in the cards. Literally thr entire rotation has some IP questions - You laid out Imanaga’s but he's got some shoulder stuff plus generally as a Japanese import he's used to pitching once a week -Steele's huge innings jump last year would probably necessitate some extra rest - Kyle's not far removed from a major shoulder injury, plus generally he's no longer a spring chicken - Assad's the only one of the youths you'd feel comfortable going much past 150 innings It could stand to help things all around.
  22. Bertz
    Around 5ish years ago Jim Callis left BA for MLB.com and John Manuel left for a team job (Twins I think?) in pretty quick succession and yeah it's been pretty much a rag since. Really sad too I used to buy the Handbook every year.
  23. Bertz
    This is an extremely cool gif
  24. Bertz
    So at this point with Imanaga on board and indications being the team only wants to add one vet SP, it seems very unlikely that we trade Morel for a frontline guy a la Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo. Knowing that, which of these do we think is the plan? 1. Sign two bats for 1B/DH, e.g. Bellinger and Hoskins, and Morel's only guaranteed path to everyday playing time comes via playing an adequate 3B. A bit of a high risk high reward proposition 2. Only sign one bat for 1B/DH, Morel will play everyday at one of those spots depending on which bat we end up with. It's a waste of his athleticism but you *know* you can get his bat into the lineup every day 3. Still trade Morel. Instead of being a part of a big time trade, do something more in the challenge trade mold like to the Mariners for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. Even if Jed's shopping list has changed Morel's lack of fit on the roster hasn't
  25. Bertz
    We'll wait for details obviously but sounds like Kenta Maeda's first deal. Wonder if Shota's health is a little more suspect than we realize.
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