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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I think Hosmer was a good idea in January that became a bit redundant when it became clear the team was happy with Rios' changes during ST. But he's making the league minimum, once he goes from "a bit redundant" to "an actual problem" he'll get the boot.
  2. Bertz
  3. Bertz
    Last night was a hit party Now today it's an early weekday day game, so get everything you need done in the AM We've got Marcus Stroman going for the Cubs And Hunter Greene going for the Reds. He's the hardest throwing starter in baseball So the Reds must usually win when he's on the mound, right? Go Cubs
  4. Bertz
    Bellinger
  5. Bertz
    This is what I get for assuming he was done after 2
  6. Bertz
    Alzolay has faced 13 hitters in the early going here this year. 6 have struck out, 5 have put it on the ground, 1 popped out. Brice Turang hit a hard liner to CF, that horsefeathers
  7. Bertz
    There's some data cleaning that happens overnight and might shift these numbers, but as of right now looks like Wesneski is up 1.3 MPH, from 93.4 -> 94.7
  8. Bertz
  9. Bertz
  10. Bertz
    The bottom half of the order this year
  11. Bertz
    Ooof, that list is bleak. Hopefully Leeper's the exception
  12. Bertz
    Oh man didn't realize it was his third. Huge bummer. Is there anybody who's had a notable career after 3? Daniel Hudson might have had 3? On the other hand the Hodge news is great though. Probably the most aggressive assignment anybody received this spring. Hope he shows out.
  13. Bertz
    It hasnt taken 3-4 months to find the right combos. It's been more like 3-4 weeks, if that. The Cubs bullpen last year pre trade deadline was: - 2nd in innings - 20th in ERA - 5th in xFIP - 4th in WPA In 2021 it was: - 6th in innings - 6th in ERA - 10th in xFIP - 4th in WPA The full year numbers have sucked because the units have been slashed to bits at the past two deadlines, but the groups they took north each year were very effective. That 20th in ERA last year sticks out like a sore thumb, but the divergence from the WPA tells you the story. The top half of the bullpen was very strong, and did their job in the games and situations that mattered. But since they had to cover so many innings with the SP woes, the bottom half had to go out there and wear it in a bunch of blowouts. This year's pen is probably more settled than it has been coming out of ST since like 2017. This weekend sucked, and showed the cost of trying to get by with 0 lefties out there. But Hughes will be back by like the weekend so I get why they didn't want to burn someone on the 40 man for like two Ryan Borucki appearances.
  14. Bertz
    I didn't expect to have to break out the big guns this early, but we're going with I Think You Should Leave Last night's game wasn't great And really, the last thee haven't been good But to break this slump Rossy has tapped our best young pitcher, Hayden Wesneski If Hayden chokes though Because the offense
  15. Bertz
    Hosmer does not seem likely to make it to May 1st in the org
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    My wife after my "Overton Window" joke to her just now
  18. Bertz
    God the Sox rebuild is a disaster. All of that for I believe two wins spread over two ALDS's? Phillies were on an even worse trajectory until ~August of last year. And those two tanked before the draft lottery even went into effect. I think we'll still see small market teams go full scorched earth tank, but I'd guess it's done for mid and large market teams.
  19. Bertz
    Historically, velo has moved with the weather. Starting low in April and peaking in August. Around 1.5-2 MPH on average. Some of this is the weather itself (i.e. guys can throw harder when it's warmer and they're looser), some of it the nature of guys ramping up from the offseason. I haven't seen any studies focusing on the last few years, but anecdotally it seems to vary much less over the course of each year. My read on why is that guys have now trained enough to throw at essentially 100% right away on February 15th. So a few years ago I'd look at all those guys who were flat and be all "if they're flat now then by June they'll be up quite a bit!" but I'm less confident than ever of that being inevitable. It still happens, Drew Smyly is a great case last year (91.9 in April, 93.3 in August), but it's no longer the universal truth it used to be.
  20. Bertz
    A couple immediate reactions to that roster: - Is Birdsell hurt, or do we think he's at SB? - Is Ismael Mena hurt? If not close the book on him ever becoming a thing I guess - I know Michael Arias throws fire, are any of the other IFA pitchers worth tracking?
  21. Bertz
    Not facing back to back Cy Young candidates and getting out of the 30-something degree weather should bode well for the offense this series. Otherwise
  22. Bertz
    One of the quickest things to matter in a new season is going to be YoY velocity changes. This is stupid early, but here's every pitcher on the team that's thrown so far. Pitcher - '23 velo / '22 velo Stroman - 91.7 / 92.9 Steele - 92.3 / 92.4 Taillon - 94.3 / 94.1 Assad - 94.3 / 93.0 Fulmer - 95.1 / 94.3 Thompson - 93.4 / 93.8 Leiter - 90.9 / 91.2 Boxberger - 93.0 / 92.8 Alzolay - 96.8 / 95.0 Merryweather - 96.4 / 97.4 Rucker - 95.5 / 94.9 Alzolay is the clearest positive. If he's going to be sitting 97 permanently he will be the permanent closer within a few weeks. Assad too, though his coming out party already happened in the WBC. One other I'll note though is Steele, his velo being flat while pitching in those conditions might mean he's really added some juice to his fastball. Stroman and Merryweather are the only guys down noticeably. I don't love Stroman being down, because he got warmed up for the WBC I wouldn't expect him to e.g. be going through dead-arm. Merryweather hopefully it was a one-off, because if he's not throwing absolute gas he shouldn't be long for the roster.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah Assad definitely needs to do some pruning, which should hopefully help whatever pitches he keeps. It'll be interesting to see where his pitches net out with the newfound velocity. Last year the pitch modeling data at Fangraphs said that he had 5 below average but playable pitches, and then a garbage change up. The very preliminary data on Saturday likes the slider and sinker as above average pitches now, but gave everything else only a modest bump. This data breaks out of the small sample size shackles really quickly, but I'd still probably like to see him get 10ish innings under his belt before making any sweeping judgements. My inkling though is to dump the cutter and the change.
  24. Bertz
    I believe that K pitch was the sweeper we've been hearing so much about?
  25. Bertz
    I was one of like 3 people here who actually wanted Swanson, but I've still been pleasantly surprised. Mainly, I didn't know he had so much opposite field juice. Dansby's big thing is that despite fairly average power, he gets quite good power production. A big part of that is hitting everything in the air, but I had also assumed the balls he actually did damage on were all pulled. But he's already stung several the opposite way. The other is I didn't expect a ton of highlight reel plays on defense. I expected more of a "takes care of absolutely everything he should" deal kind of like Nico.
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