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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Great read, as most pieces he doesn't co-write with Mooney are. This stood out though
  2. Bertz
    A cool thing I was just thinking about with a Bellinger/Hoskins combo is that you can sort of platoon Tauchman/Madrigal depending on whether you want to prioritize IF defense or OF defense. For example, if Justin Steele is pitching you absolutely cannot run Morel out at 3B. But you could do Madrigal at 3rd, Morel at DH, Bellinger at CF, Hoskins at 1st. Conversely with like Taillon on the mound you could do Morel at 3rd, Bellinger at 1st, Hoskins DHing, and Tauchman in CF. If you start feeling more comfortable with Morel at 3rd or when PCA is ready you can shift to more of a set everyday lineup. I've been vocally anti-Bellinger from the start of the offseason, but the story is way different on a short term deal. He's always been a perfect fit for the 2024 club, but it's a matter of how long I want to pay him for that privilege.
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    I remember seeing earlier in the offseason someone (one of the BN guys?) suggested something like the first Carlos Correa deal for Bellinger. I didn't think that made sense from Bellinger's perspective at the time, but now it might be the most mutually beneficial move for both him and Jed? - If Bellinger hits like last year, he probably pulls down $300M next winter - If Bellinger hits more good than great (~110 wRC+), I think he still gets nearly $200M because there will be little concern about any recurrence of his '21-'22 awfulness and also there should be a different mix of teams on the market - If he does turn into a pumpkin he still locked in his low 9 figure deal. From Jed's perspective it's probably just a one year deal and even if it does go south it's only three. I once again find myself wondering what the plan is at 3B if not Chapman. Because like you say Bellinger/Hoskins makes for a potent pair, and makes for quite the top-to-bottom lineup if we're not resigning ourselves to Madrigal/Mastrobuoni at 3B.
  5. Bertz
    Yeah it's like the Giants after signing Lee. It doesn't 100% shut the door but it's certainly not a super clean fit anymore. This might be a sign they're looking to do a reunion with Chapman though? Bellinger's fits at this point are the Cubs, a bunch of bad and/or small market teams that probably aren't looking to drop 9 figures, and Mariners/Padres who may or may not have any more cash to spend? Never count Boras out but he and a lot of his clients look to be in a bad spot this winter. That's good news for Jed though.
  6. Bertz
    I saw a couple days ago a list from last year. It was Nate Eovaldi and a bunch of little stuff. That said last year was weird in that FA was like 90% sewn up by Christmas.
  7. Bertz
    For 1B/DH I want a lefty and a righty, and ideally one of them would be an above average contact bat. Something like Hoskins and Michael Brantley or Brandon Belt and Justin Turner. Bellinger and JD Martinez might be the most primo version? And I think having that one contact bat becomes especially paramount if Morel or Chapman and their 30%+ K rate are our everyday 3B.
  8. Bertz
    This is a good list, we can narrow it down a bit further though. Royals are getting Pasquantino back, so between him/Pratto/Melendez/Velazquez they look pretty full at 1B/DH Minnesota reportedly needs to cut payroll (which is why Polanco and Kepler are on the block) Padres seem to have enough payroll room for another move or two, but it seems really likely that anything else major they have will be pitching oriented Rockies have said they're moving Bryant to 1st this season, and Charlie Blackmon at this point requires a lot of DH time Spencer Torkelson finally broke out in the second half last year for the Tigers. That said DH looks wide open if Hoskins is willing to primarily do that (like you say seems unlikely though) Similarly the Angels can't offer 1B (Schanuel) but they can offer DH (unless Rendon moves there full time?) So that leaves just Milwaukee, the Nats, and the White Sox? Even if we open it up to DH-only it only adds in a couple more teams (Angels, Tigers, Dbacks, maybe Mets). But then that also widens the player pool with guys like JD Martinez, Jorge Soler, Michael Brantley, etc. Between this exercise and the surprisingly team friendly Garver deal, feels pretty clear Jed has opportunity to clean up at 1B/DH this winter on the cheap. Even though I like his combo contact/power bat I think I'm moving away from wanting Josh Naylor.
  9. Bertz
    I would love Luzardo but Vinnie P being available is the real headline here. I'd absolutely kill to have him at 1B for the next five years
  10. Bertz
    Unclear if this is at all a rumor or if it's pure speculation. The Sox system is not as desolate as it was, but I think they're generally still in a position to take quantity in a deal.
  11. Bertz
    That's unfortunate to read about Polanco, though the Twins are a smart org and he started multiple playoff games at 3rd last year. I'd guess it's more gray than you've got here. Maybe he's a -5 defender but with that bat that's still the best non-Chapman option on the market by quite a margin. Agreed on Teoscar Hernandez rumors being a nice bellwether for the market thawing. Whatever macho headgames Boras is playing, once guys like Hernandez, Belt, Garver, etc. start moving he's going to have to play ball.
  12. Bertz
    Regarding the core, I'll say too I think there is a lot to be said for the weak link theory of team building. We saw with the last group how teams with even the most fearsome middle of the order can be busts when you have gaping holes like Almora and Heyward. Personally I am a believer that depth wins the regular season and stars win in October Jed came into this winter in a bit of an awkward spot. $70Mish and 6-7 holes on the roster gives you four options: - Fill 1-2 spots with stars, 2-3 spots solidly, and 2-3 hope you can make it work internally - Fill all (or maybe all but one) of those spots solidly - Blow the farm up trying to do both of the above - Just sort of putz around and burn a year I think most of us, myself included, wanted door #1. Much of the fanbase is freaking out and thinks Jed's doing #4 but I'm not going out on a limb here when I think it's pretty clearly going to be #2 or pretty close to it by the time we hit ST.
  13. Bertz
    I'm not even a little concerned about it costing that much. Me being biased and the pitcher needing to be Brown or Wicks is something I could absolutely buy. Morel for Alonso straight up is not happening though, certainly not Morel AND a pitcher of that caliber.
  14. Bertz
    One of Assad/Wesneski and one of Canario/Mervis/Wisdom feels right. I could maybe have my arm twisted to make Ben Brown the arm.
  15. Bertz
    Curious if this shakes Pete Alonso loose. The Mets aren't that bad on the position player side and Stearns can obviously cobble together a pitching staff. But all their actions and most of their messaging has been that Yamamoto aside they are looking ahead to 2025. On the other hand it's been really quiet on the Alonso front since basically the moment Stearns took over. I'm mostly resigning myself to not pulling down a truly exciting bat, but Alonso is out there and unlike Bregman it's not a huge stretch to think he's available.
  16. Bertz
    I really wish Wisdom’s ability to competently play 3B hadn't evaporated overnight because like you say offensively they complement each other extremely well. That'd be a fun little platoon to run out there while we wait for Shaw/Murray/etc. to develop
  17. Bertz
    I think we've talked about the pitching musical chairs, but let's actually lay it out. Teams that definitely want another SP of substance and have money/prospects to throw around: Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees Teams that want SP help, but TBD what kind of resources they are willing to throw around: Rangers, Blue Jays (definitely going to make a big move, seem to prefer that be a bat), Angels, Mariners (after a SP for bat trade?), Reds, Orioles So then what's available? The lefty FA #2 starters: Imanaga, Montgomery, Snell The "it wasn't that long ago he was an impact guy" guys: Stroman, Giolito The "definitely going to be traded" crew: Bieber, Cease The "there have been some rumblings" crew: Framber Valdez, Jesus Luzardo, Corbin Burnes, several Mariners So overall things are a bit tight, but it shouldn't be that hard for Jed to pull down at least one potentially two of the above. There are four teams that are very in on the SP market, and between Cease and the three lefties four impact guys definitely available. I think where things get dicey is if none of that last group of pitchers is reasonably available or if more than one or two of those second tier teams do in fact go big game hunting.
  18. Bertz
    Market based pricing and the partnership with stubhub removed a lot of the incentives to lock in those ticket packages
  19. Bertz
    There's an argument that over the next ten years as RSN contracts expire and cord cutting hits its end game that most of MLB's revenue will be national. With more of an NFL-shaped revenue setup an NFL-shaped cap and floor system might make sense. But like that's certainly not what's being argued here.
  20. Bertz
  21. Bertz
    It's not, this is 100 level economics.
  22. Bertz
    Rob Manfred worrying about the second biggest market in the sport getting good fun marketable players while simultaneously giving a nation of 125M a reason to start tuning into all their games Baseball's boned!
  23. Bertz
    Hopefully this dislodges things. Then again there's no real reason the bats shouldn't have been moving by now so who knows. Baseball executives will do absolutely anything possible to put off making moves. That's why for instance making the trade deadline later is easily the dumbest thing I regularly see otherwise smart people suggest. So we should start seeing movement. But between the holidays and the next Diamond hearing and the arb deadline Baseball has three ready-made excuses lined up for the next three weeks. Imanaga’s posting deadline and accompanying logistics (I assume he's currentlt stateside but would like to get home by New Year's?) will keep his market moving at the very least.
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    Yeah the NL Champs had Tommy Pham hitting cleanup for them and their #3 starter had a 5.72 ERA. I don't understand how people still don't understand how random the baseball playoffs are
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