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Bertz

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  1. Bertz

    Holy Assad

    Bertz replied to a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Assad looked great again tonight, but by my back of the napkin math averaged 94.1 on the sinker. Still way up from last year's 92.4, but down from the other day.
  2. Bertz
    Might want to sit down for this shocker, but Wesneski is shoving again
  3. Bertz
    I'm very happy to take the over on 6.5 wins if someone wants to do a charity bet like David and Jersey did last year.
  4. Bertz
    Bryan Smith's list he's releasing on Bleacher Nation this week is a very good example of going off the beaten path but with some real logic and rigor behind it. Though even shows some brain worms while writing about Chase Strumpf.
  5. Bertz
    Didn't catch all of Poles press conference, but a few things that stuck out from what I did: - They're probably done on the interior of the O-line. Gonna be a competition in camp to determine the depth chart. Specifically called out Whitehair's experience playing center FWIW - Sorta answered a question about Orlando Brown saying scheme fit was really important at RT - Called out age as a big factor in FA evals, as well as explosive athleticism - Specifically called out that while he's to this point moved down in the draft, but they might consider moving up from that block of picks in the late 2nd/early 3rd - He and the team think about players in tiers instead of rounds - Talked about value, and not feeling pressure to fill every single hole right this second. I believe this came in response to a question about how horsefeathers the D-line is currently - His line about 6-7 blue chippers in this draft apparently included the QBs, so that's why he insisted on something as big as Moore to drop all the way to 9 Overall my takeaway is that Poles' read on what does/does not work on the roster currently is the same as ours, but unlike us he's comfortable to do some heavy lifting via the draft and then patch up the rest after.
  6. Bertz
    I feel so awful for Edwin Diaz but boy are the histrionics from Mets fans this morning incredible.
  7. Bertz
    Yeah I'm mostly a no on these. We already have Wesneski through age 30 and Steele and Mervis through age 31. The odds that we would A) want to keep them past that and B) the cost would be prohibitive are pretty low. Morel's interesting, and I'd be pretty open to it depending on what internal evaluations look like. There's a lot of risk there but the path to him being a star isn't very complicated (which isn't to say it's easy). Him still having so much swing and miss this spring makes me nervous though, I was hoping to see more of a step forward immediately here in year 2. Hoerner's the most obvious case, and I'd like to see it, but I'm not overly concerned if they come up short. Really depends on the money. Defense is the first thing to age, so unless he continues to add power he's not going to be especially hard to replace in three years. Overall I'm just not especially concerned about the extension thing. We don't yet have a Julio Rodriguez or Ronald Acuna running around, so don't force it. I mentioned in a thread a few days ago but I'd probably be talking to some of the kids down in AA, and get on the same page as them now so you can do the concurrent callup/extension move in like August. Maybe Davis too depending on how his medicals look.
  8. Bertz
    I forgot about Estrada, though I think he's fine to start the year in Iowa. It's a tough call, because someone between the stuff monster(Merryweather/Estrada), the long reliever(Sampson/Assad), or the lefty killer(Leiter Jr/Duffey) can't make the opening day roster unless Mooney is way off in his confidence about Wick(who has been good this spring himself). I honestly don't know which of those I prefer, I guess Merryweather/Sampson? Might change my mind by tomorrow though, never mind Opening Day. I wonder how long they're going to let Thompson and Alzolay go on a regular basis, because I think that does a lot to determine whether a long reliever is at all necessary. The indications seem to be that they're shortening them up significantly from last year, but if Thompson in particular can go 3ish innings whenever I don't think we need a LRP like Sampson around to do long stints of mopup duty.
  9. Bertz
    I don't 100% love DVOA for individual players, but I think it's instructive here. It basically has your elite RBs like Jacobs, McCaffrey, and Chubb as being comparable in value to 3rd tier QBs like Carr, Jones, and Tannehill. So like there's certainly a major disconnect with the value you get from the passing game, but there's a real chunk of value there. I think the baseball equivalent is the value of the closer. Yes it'd be dumb to give a 9 figure contract to a closer or RB, but also if your team is horsefeathers in that area it is going to make itself apparent particularly in tight games. All that said, unless Poles comes down with Orlando Brown I'd hate to draft Robinson. The FO (seemingly) punting on addressing RT means they pretty much have to take one at 9 IMO.
  10. Bertz
    I'm going to be extremely annoying if one of Merryweather or Estrada doesn't make the bullpen. If I ruled the world they both would, but we damn sure ought to have at least one monster stuff guy on the roster at all times.
  11. Bertz
    The bullpen is going to shove this year
  12. Bertz
    What are they going for with the emojis? Orange juice? I get orange because he's got red hair but still haven't heard any nicknames in that vein for him.
  13. Bertz
  14. Bertz
    Honestly I'm pretty comfortable if Jed doesn't pull the trigger on any extensions. I'd definitely let Happ walk. Cool dude but I just have no interest in locking up a pure LF unless they have enough bat that I'd be comfortable making them the full time DH in a few years. Particularly with what we've got on the farm. Hoerner's it really depends on the pricepoint. He's very good but then again do I want to be on the hook for a batting average + defense guy five years out? There's some budding power there, but if that doesn't manifest any further then I would probably like to bid him adieu once his defense starts veering back towards average. Odds are that process starts before his team control runs out. The rookies are a little problematic as well. Davis and Canario have major health red flags, while Mervis and Wesneski are old enough that you've already got them locked up into their 30's. While not a rookie Steele is also in the "probably too old" camp. I'd maybe go to some of the guys in AA like PCA, Wicks, and Brown and see if they want to work something out. I'd also be interested in going long with Bellinger depending on what internal evaluations have looked like this spring. But then again if it was worth it Scott Boras would never do it.
  15. Bertz
    Minor league ST games started yesterday, so my guess is we'll get news on that front soon since it'll be more obvious who's not taking the field.
  16. Bertz
    Yeah I'm good with things so far. Feels like they should have stretched for Dre'mont Jones if DT is sooo important to Eberflus' system, but there's nothing inherently wrong with ending up with inevitably ending up with a mid-tier DT like Sheldon Rankins instead. And with 5 holes (DT, RT, Edge, Corner, RB) left to fill and $40Mish left in his pocket, my assumption is that's the plan. Mid tier FAs at each position, leaving enough money for a couple extensions as well. Then you've got a full formed team heading into a draft where you have a horsefeathers-load of ammo. Not a bad plan, even if I would have preferred to grab a star knowing it would leave one or two items unchecked on the to-do list.
  17. Bertz
    Whether it's Davenport specifically or another edge guy in that tier, I am hoping that this is the other side of the coin if we do punt on signing a big RT. Something like Dre'mont Jones and Marcus Davenport as the last two big FA adds, make sure to grab a corner among the day 2 picks...suddenly that defense is pretty damn fun.
  18. Bertz
    BJ Murray had looked great in the WBC, definitely understand the sleeper buzz he got this winter
  19. Bertz
    Lucas Patrick is still under contract, right? Yeah, my assumption is that he'll be the primary backup for the interior portion of the Oline but I wouldn't be shocked if they intend to have him be the starting C.
  20. Bertz
    Are we assuming its more likely we see Whitehair head back to center or that it's likely he is an eventual cut?
  21. Bertz
    Tangentially related conversation I just saw on Twitter. Absolutely gotta lock down the interior of both lines pre-draft though.
  22. Bertz
    IMO DT is the only place where you've absolutely got to get a top of the market option Poles can go more mid-market at RT, it just means he ought to take one of the top guys with #9
  23. Bertz
    If we just take the rumors as gospel, adding McGlinchey, Seumalo, Okereke, and one of the top DTs to Edward's would use up most of the Bears' cap space, while emphatically filling every glaring hole on the roster except Edge Rusher. I would absolutely buy that being plan A.
  24. Bertz

    Holy Assad

    Bertz replied to a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    So here's an attempt at a little Monday morning math. From FG, I grabbed every pitcher with 50 IP in both '21 and '22, and looked at their velo, ERA, xFIP, and Stuff+ numbers. I also removed dudes who don't throw a traditional 4 Steamer, e.g. Emmanuel Clase. This left a list of 206 dudes. First off, only one of the 206 added 2.5+ MPH year over year. Griffin Jax, who transitioned from starter to reliever. So unfortunately we should probably assume a good bit of Assad's bump was a one-off, maybe adrenaline coming from national pride like TT mentioned. If Assad permanently added a full 2.5 MPH, especially being able to hold it as a starter, he's a unicorn. Something like 1 MPH is far more realistic though. 21 guys saw a bump between 0.7 and 1.3 MPH, and several of those are pure SPs. The performance lift for those 21 guys is substantial. They saw an their ERA drop by over a run on average, and even if we want to look more process rather than results their xFIPs dropped by 0.59 runs, and they added 5 points to their Stuff+ marks. As a point of reference that 5 points is the difference between Javier Assad and Lance Lynn. So step one is seeing how real this increase is. And we probably won't have a great sense there for another 6 weeks, but potentially we have a fundamentally different guy on our hands.
  25. Bertz

    Holy Assad

    Bertz replied to a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    I think the big question is how much of this velo bump was the starter -> reliever conversion and how much is the offseason velo training you mentioned. A 3 inning outing is an awkward amount for having any sort of strong opinion there. But in the roster scenario where he can sit at 95 with his sinker for 5-6 innings not only does it raise his profile enough to be a sure MLBer, it probably raises it enough to be a mid-rotation starter. As bad as Sampson has been this spring, I'd not drop him from the roster short of injury or someone (presumably quite desperate) offering value in trade. I feel a lot better about both Kilian and Assad than I did a month ago, but I'd like to see them prove it out in Iowa for a month before I bump Sampson down to #9 on the SP depth chart where it's pretty safe to DFA him for the roster spot.
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