Bertz

PCA at 14 (!!!) Alcantara at 73 Wesneski at 88 Hernandez at 100 We already knew from other notes that Caissie and Davis dropped, but not a surprise looks like Triantos did as well.

I was pretty sure it was the plan already, but woo boy seeing that spending every 3rd year resetting the LT is explicitly and publicly part of the plan even in the best case scenarios is not great.

This is pretty in the weeds, but basically Eno Sarris and team built a projection system using their Pitching+ metrics. Stuff+ is basically a measure of a pitcher's pitch qualities based on things like their velo, spin, etc., while Pitching+ also folds in location/command. It's interesting because it is completely independent of ball in play luck or anything like that, I believe the only results based metric that goes into it is swinging strike rate by pitch type. Because it focuses more on process than results, it stabilizes really quickly, often just a couple of starts. Overall, the results are pretty positive for the Cubs. Here's how guys' ERAs from this system compare to what's currently projected on Fangraphs Taillon: 3.91 PP / 4.20 FG Stroman: 3.71 PP / 3.80 FG Steele: 3.82 PP / 3.78 FG Wesneski: 4.02 PP / 4.56 FG Thompson: 4.15 PP / 4.15 FG Alzolay: 3.65 PP / 3.86 FG Smyly: 4.49 PP / 4.55 FG Hendricks: 5.01 PP / 4.61 FG Kilian: 4.26 PP / 4.15 FG That's nice lift for Taillon, a huge lift for Wesneski, and some other more modest gains elsewhere. Hendricks is pretty much the only pitcher who looks way worse by this methodology.

Sampson's fastball is exactly one MPH below the league average for a SP, so any extra velo he could wring out of his arm would be pretty impactful.

It'd be really cool if Cam started having a weapon against lefties

Includes a bit about why the Yankees, who are all in on the sweeper, didn't already try this if it's such a good idea:

Brewers are already down two starters to shoulder injuries this spring. Jason Alexander is pretty whatever, just depth, but Aaron Ashby was easily the most exciting of their young pitchers. This is like if we were already down Sampson and Wesneski.

Kind of looks like a left-handed hitting Wisdom. Not awful for your 25th or 26th guy on the roster. This has to mean goodbye to Madrigal, right? He was already superfluous, starts taking reps at 3rd, then we sign this guy. There may not even be room for Madrigal at Iowa at his point. I'd guess Madrigal's staying in the org short of a ST injury taking out some team's starting 2B. But between this signing and all of the talk about how committed they are to making the 3B thing work, it does seem very likely he opens the year at Iowa. The Iowa lineup is hella loaded though. Something like this? 3B - Madrigal 2B - Mastrobuoni CF - Davis 1B - Mervis C - Amaya DH - Velazquez RF - Perlaza SS - Alcantara LF - Hill I'd be pretty comfortable with any of those top 7 guys, plus Canario when he's back, getting some run with the MLB club at some point this year.

Curious if he was given any assurances about that last bench spot, or if this is a stash him at Iowa deal. Regardless the team could use more upper levels LH power so hard to complain.

But is the .018 more if he pulls more balls. And will he pull more with no shift? Bellinger's already near the top of the league in that regard, and has been very consistent throughout his career. I doubt there's a ton of room to go up without potentially breaking him. Although never say never I guess, Matt Carpenter did that in his short stint with the Yankees last year. Hosmer on the other hand might be more of an option to try something radical. Teams and writers have wanted to flyball revolution him for nearly a decade, so it seems pretty unlikely he's got it in him. But maybe now that we are post shift and he's in the roster fringe stage of his career he'd be desperate enough to actually go through with it.

One thing that does make me think this could really work is that Tommy La Stella was able to get himself up to adequate at 3B, and he has an even weaker arm than Madrigal. They should keep working on this 3B experiment, and also give Nick some run in LF and CF. His bat becomes a lot more fun if he's a more legit utility option defensively. Open the year at Iowa and we'll see you around Memorial Day.

Bellinger is definitely going to be a benefactor from the shift ban. That said, if it's 18 points of average, that's like 40ish of OPS? Probably enough to get Bellinger's 2022 within a stones throw of league average offense, but not much more. Coincidentally, that is where he's being projected for this year. So if we're asking what we should expect, that's exactly it IMO. Maybe give him a bit more boost if Ross is more aggressive providing platoon help than the Dodgers were. With his defense and baserunning that should be a quality player, but not an impact one. Obviously the hope is for a lot more, and for him to revert to his star (if not MVP) form. I do hope it's as simple as better health and being further removed from his injury. One thing I'm going to be keeping a close eye on is his top end exit velocities. Bellinger, even in his MVP year, never put up those silly Judge/Stanton/Schwarber sorts of numbers of like 120 MPH. But he was well above average, and since he hit essentially everything in the air it led to primo power numbers. The last two years post shoulder injury Bellinger's max EVs have been 107 and change, which is what you'd associate with like a second basemen. If Bellinger rips a ball or two at 110 or 112 early in the season that's a really good sign that really good things are back on the way.

Yeah I'm assuming we come down with one of Britton/Hand/W. Smith at $2-3M. Essentially I get the sense Jed is choosing Fulmer + a second tier lefty over coming down with Chafin or Moore.

I don’t think there’s any scenario all 4 start in Iowa. I think Madrigal and Morel are near locks to make the OD roster and Mckinstry or Mastrobuoni should make it too. I think Velazquez starts in Iowa though Yeah I think it's a Pick 2 for Madrigal, Morel, and Mckinstry to make the MLB bench. Mckinstry would have the inside track on a spot being lefty and lacking options. That said either way Iowa looks quite strong. I would say best it's been since KB and Russell got the bump to MLB, but that's such a low bar I think that understates it. Any of Davis, Mervis, and Madrigal/Morel could reasonably be up by Memorial Day, and each has enough prospectiness to potentially give you a 2-3 WAR performance. Amaya and Canario are of that caliber as well, though probably not options til July or later. Nelly, Perlaza, and Mastrobuoni are reasonable bench options. It's one of the primary reasons I'm pretty excited about this season. Even if the OD roster flops in the early part of the season, we'll start seeing a line change to the kids sooner rather than later.

I know I'm in the minority but I like the rule. I'm too damn tired all the time to watch games go much past 10:30. And with how dominant bullpen have become extra innings basically became "trade zeroes until the first reliever throws a meatball or loses the strikezone". As contrived as it is, the new rule makes a much higher proportion of extra inning play compelling. I'm going to miss the annual 15+ inning game, but I'm comfortable with the tradeoff.

I don't know what everyone's betting app of choice is, but BetRivers currently has the Bears as +10,000 to win next year's Superbowl. It feels like free money to park a couple hundred bucks in there and cash out in three months after the Bears have made a bunch of offseason noise and sit at like +3000 or +4000.

I don't think there had been any talk of the additional position player limits before this.

Yeah I think that's a fair distinction on the position/athleticism front. That said on the flip side if you get more picky on the offensive front it swings the pendulum back again. Set a BB% floor of 8 or 9% and a K% cap of ~25% and you filter out a lot of the riff-raff who flamed out in my initial sample. I think generally, even though it's top of mind people still don't consider ARL enough for hitters. And on the flipside there's way too much mind paid to it for pitchers.

Interestingly the stuff numbers don't love Fulmer. That said, he's one of only 10 guys who throws his slider more than 90 MPH. It's also got some interesting characteristics from a spin/movement perspective. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some low-hanging fruit to weaponize much more effectively. Curious what this means for the pen. Is another FA lefty also on the way? If not, I assume second lefty is one of the camp battles coming up? And I think that would imply only one of Estrada/Merryweather in the OD bullpen?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-national-league/ ZiPs has them at 78 wins here Aren't zips projections typically more conservative for teams that focus on defense and run prevention? Or is that just something I'm making up in my head? No, not so much. I think if you're looking for nits to pick there's two. First, the depth chart for the team on Fangraphs currently has several fairly silly choices. Dan's system will move guys up/down the chart within each simulation based on their performance (which is why this is so much more accurate than their live updating standings), but still if you're starting with several faulty assumptions it's going to have an impact. Second, some of the Cubs pitchers have fairly short track records behind their 2022 performance, but have real under the hood changes and data-driven reasons to think they're real and substantive. Wesneski is top of the list, but like Smyly and Sampson project as basically replacement level and it's pretty easy to justify them well north of that. Projection systems base their opinion on a longer track record, and they should, but if a pitcher drastically alters their arsenal you don't necessarily need three years or 400 innings to tell there's been a real talent level change. But generally whether it's 78 or 82 doesn't change much big picture. For the team to really be in it next year you're going to need a couple of major surprises. Something like two of the following: 1. The starting outfield to be awesome. Whether that's from one star performance and two solid ones, or all three guys being at or near All Star level, but through some means getting 10+ WAR from the 3 everyday guys 2. Strong (2.5+ WAR) performance from multiple youths. Morel and Wesneski seem most likely, but for the first time in years Iowa is pretty loaded with talent, so these performances could just as easily come from Mervis, Davis, Amaya, Kilian, etc. 3. Hottovy Devil magic to make a few major impacts. Tommy's shown he can essentially turn straw into a quality 8th inning guy, but we need bigger. Maybe that's Taillon’s new slider letting him bump up against the 4 WAR mark. Maybe it's fixing Hendricks. Maybe it's getting Wesneski to just continue what he did last September without major regression. But we need someone(s) to step up such that our top 4 SPs account for 10-12 WAR

Guys who hit as 18 year olds are just a really big deal. I just pulled a leaderboard from FG, and it looks like since 2011 therer are 52 guys who have had 120+ PAs in a season at Low A with a wRC+ north of 100. Of those 52: - 10 turned into legit stars - 10 more turned into good players, e.g. Ozzie Albies. A couple of these guys, like Wander Franco, still have a chance to jump up a grade - 4 ended up as low end MLBers/bench types - 11 outright busted - 17 it's still too early to say. Of these, 4 are currently on Top 100 lists So that's something like a 50% hit rate on getting a 1st division player or better? I have Moises at #13 on my personal list, and I'm frankly more worried about having him too low than too high. He's definitely not gonna catch but he's probably gonna mash.

Might be approaching time for a WBC thread. The DR team is as stacked as you'd imagine, except surprisingly sad at catcher.