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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I don't think it's unreasonable to not include Hayden Wesneski, but I will say I can't even really devil's advocate my way into thinking Ryan Pepiot is better, and he somehow came in at #70.
  2. Bertz
    Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83. Coming into the offseason they were at 74 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/ They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.
  3. Bertz
    With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa. I think I'd go something like this: LF - Happ RF - Suzuki SS - Swanson RF - Bellinger 1B - Mancini DH - Hosmer 3B - Wisdom/Morel 2B - Hoerner C - Gomes If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters. If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like: 2B - Hoerner DH - Hosmer RF - Suzuki LF - Happ SS - Swanson 1B - Mancini CF - Bellinger 3B - Wisdom C - Gomes I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.
  4. Bertz
    Matt Barnes seems like a very natural addition for Jed to make once the Sox cut him and put themselves on the hook for his salary.
  5. Bertz
    This is right in my Q Zone
  6. Bertz
    Setting aside the MLB specific stuff Bryan is talking about, I really love when he puts these together. Seeing it all in one place really reinforces the system's depth. 1B/DH is a bit of a problem south of Iowa (BJ Murray and.....?), and the Myrtle outfield is notably sad, but otherwise very real prospects pretty much everywhere you turn.
  7. Bertz
    Awful. Wasn't he one of the guys who broke out of the bubble to go party in 2020? Completely different issues but would speak to the lack of character and consideration for others' wellbeing.
  8. Bertz
    Do the Marlins want Madrigal too? Arraez, Segura, and Madrigal all in the same lineup would be fun in a very throwbacky way
  9. Bertz
    It's 2023, damn near every pitcher of any consequence has had or will eventually have TJ. It's a natural consequence of the explosion in velocity the last 10 years. Like pitchers are still inherently dangerous so you're not wrong about your broader point of the team putting all their resources into a more dangerous demo, but e.g. Horton's risk is tied far more to the short amount of time he's been flashing ace-level stuff rather than him having had a TJ already.
  10. Bertz
    The Cubs were trying to buy out Lee’s Cal Poly SLO commitment in the second round of 2019 so there are clearly fans of his in the org. There were pretty well established rumors he was falling/completely off certain boards because of his medicals, so I just can’t question that without more info. Once the Guardians (with their draft models‘ bias to younger players) passed on Collier, I knew the industry was lower than draft media. I preferred both of those to Parada. I wonder if Neto is the guy we look back on with regret. Yeah I mostly became content with the decision once we saw the data on Horton's pitches. Just absolutely monster stuff, though there is some real reliever risk. I would have taken Lee, but as you said the knee stuff should give you some very real pause. Collier its hard to question too much. He fell another 10 spots so it's not like the Cubs were on an island in not thinking the juice is worth the squeeze. Neto I'm not too worried about either. The org right now has so much quantity I'm okay potentially foregoing some value by way of his high floor and taking a bigger swing at a guy more likely to be a frontline talent.
  11. Bertz
    The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.
  12. Bertz
    There's a bit of a losing the forest for the trees deal with Swanson because he's not Turner or Correa. But over the last three years among shortstops he's 4th in WAR, 3rd in dongs, and 3rd in defensive value via Statcast. He's really good, he's just more All Star than MVP. Swanson's going to strike out more than you'd like, which is going to keep the OBP from getting all that high. But something like his 3 year average of .265/.324/.451 is about right to expect. Maybe juice the power numbers a little more, as Statcast thinks he'd have hit a lot more dongs if he'd played in the NL Central parks the last few years.
  13. Bertz
    Nah. Leverage is clearly there in other teams so the Bears attitude doesn't matter. Poles could emphatically declare he won't pick first and it wouldn't matter one iota, because there's at least 3 and probably closer to 6 or 8 teams who want that pick.
  14. Bertz
    A little surprised BA didn't still have Brailyn Marquez on the list
  15. Bertz
    Propane is stupid and useless and imparts no flavor. I have a Weber kettle and a kamado and it takes me maybe 5 minutes longer to be cooking on the Weber than it does on a gas grill.
  16. Bertz
    You'd think from the videos he's a super high strikeout and super high walk type, but he's actually been the opposite. He's got a below average K rate, better than average BB rate, and has been hit hard. He had a 6.75 ERA in limited time last year. Glass half full look back to Nate Eovaldi. He was a guy with monster stuff and just inexplicably couldn't miss bats. Then he made a few small tweaks (I believe at Driveline?) post Yankees while recovering from TJ and it unlocked him. The Blue Jays are not exactly luddites, but are not a team where you say "If they can't figure him out no one can." On the flipside the Cubs aren't the Dodgers or Rays where you'd *know* they're going to fix him. But they're progressive enough you give them some benefit of the doubt that they've got a really good plan.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    As much as you can like a mere waiver claim I like this. Merryweather's a HUGE stuff guy and throws strikes. Just doesn't miss as many bats as he should. Seems like it should be fixable, and if not he's making league min.
  19. Bertz
    So should we expect a poor return for our no. 1 pick? The Colts are not far removed from giving up a 2nd for a clearly washed Carson Wentz, I'm very much not worried about it.
  20. Bertz
    Matt Miller has Fields as having been better at draft time FWIW. Saying "but he went #11" is generally a tell for someone hot taking since A) most people at the time thought Fields should have gone higher and B) he was in a draft with 4 other very good QB prospects, including the guy most folks felt was the best QB prospect since Luck. Different drafts have varying levels of talent, and in particular the shape of the top end talent varies drastically.
  21. Bertz
  22. Bertz
    I think this weekend was the first time they said it outright, but they'd really been pumping the brakes on expectations for him all offseason so I think they've expected for a while.
  23. Bertz

    NFL Playoffs

    Bertz replied to raw's topic in Other Sports

    Feeling great about hammering the live moneyline when it dropped to Buffalo -7. Sigh
  24. Bertz
    Yeah there's not really any ways to free up significant cash except Hendricks or Bote, which both feel unlikely. Madrigal would save you half a million, and Sampson would free up a little over a million, but those aren't moving the needle any. Also there is occasionally a margin of error of a couple million between the public accounting and what ends up being official. That article TT posted (which Sharma wrote like right before the Mancini news), said it was basically an either/or between getting a Chafin/Moore type and getting a Mancini type bat. That seems right, though I do wonder how much the guys one tier down like Will Smith and Zack Britton would cost. Or maybe this is where Jed finally hits the trade market? At this point I think it's basically a pick two between having money for the deadline, signing a Hoerner extension, and signing a reliever for more than $1-2M. My inference is that they couldn't work anything out with Hoerner, but we'll see.
  25. Bertz
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