Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Yeah yesterday when Dave Roberts started blabbing it really started to feel like this was just about over. Teams probably submitted their formal offers when they did their in-person meetups. There'll be a day or three of Shohei sleeping on it and a day or three of additional haggling but it should be pretty close to done?
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I'm not that worried about it unless Jed pulls down all of Glasnow, Hoskins, and Soto. When I looked at payroll at the start of the offseason, it looked like the team was $80-90M under for next year. And right now the team is slated to lose 34 year old Kyle Hendricks, 36 year old Yan Gomes, and 35 year old Drew Smyly. That's 5 WAR at 3 fairly low leverage spots on the roster. If you add Hoskins and Glasnow, that's ~6 more WAR at higher leverage spots. Now you're at 11 WAR total, and that's a bit tough to do in FA alone. But with the farm system (both via straight production and trades) does still feel very doable. Glasnow and Soto though...you're talking north of 15 WAR just to hold steady. That's suddenly a much tougher beast, and I think would likely require the team to stay above the LT or highly leverage the farm to make up. I would hope Jed would kick the can down the road and look at resetting in '26 or '27.
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Based on the Sharma/Mooney latest this...does not look far off
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I kind of wonder about that. They're waiting for the firm no from Ohtani's camp and then pull the trigger here
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Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees
Bertz replied to Bobson Dugnutt's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Leverage is always always always other teams. A GM could come out and say "our owner has decreed we absolutely must trade this player" and if at least two teams want that player at more or less market value there is zero loss of leverage. Conversely no amount of "we totally still want him we swear" matters if you're holding a distressed asset. Soto's amazing. The market's a little limited by his $30M+ salary but there will probably be 4-5 teams on him heavily. My guess is Preller's just asking for the moon hoping someone does something stupid before Ohtani signs and he has to buckle down and get serious. -
2024 MLB Draft Thread
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Nah it sucks that it was the Reds but teams trying and still getting rewarded in the draft is a good thing -
This has potential to be Bob's version of the Bowden "Ralph" debacle
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2024 MLB Draft Thread
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
A's and Royals got kind of boned. Plus this (which I believe also applies to tbe Royals) The anti-tanking portions of the new CBA looking like they might have a little teeth. -
Cut my life into Rhys(s); Is this Jed's last resort?
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
There's some plausible doubt to the idea that the Cubs don't believe Morel can play 3rd. He's been doing the super-sub thing basically since the pandemic hit. Maybe there is some specific thing (I've seen an arm-angle change) that can be fixed if the team wants to commit to him being a full time 3B. Mervis though, you really have to do some mental gymnastics to think the org has faith in him. The fanbase had to scream for him to be called up initially even as Hosmer and Mancini were floundering. After Mervis flopped initially, Jared Young got multiple callups, and Miles Mastrobuoni spent a long stint as the primary LHH pinch hitter. Mervis is already 25, if he was going to get a 2nd opportunity with the org it would have happened in the later part of the year. -
I do wonder if we're close to this finally being over. All the entrants have had their meetings confirmed or mysterious absences from the winter meetings. Those presumably included formal offers, so it should just be Ohtani weighing those offers and maybe some goal-line haggling, right?
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We should probably have a Hoskins thread, he seems very likely to happen
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BBTV has Morel and Brown for Glasnow and Brandon Lowe as more or less a perfect match.
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Morel is clearly too much for Glasnow. Something else of substance would be coming back this way. Lowe, a reliever, etc.
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I mean a year later you'd way prefer to have Swanson over the other three.
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Hoskins is a fantastic 2nd bat so I won't crap on him at all. Reallllly hoping the cold water on Soto was a "out of respect for Ohtani" sort of deal though. The problem is that, unless you buy that what Bellinger did last year was for real, there's just such a huge gap in bat quality after Soto. It's Ohtani/Soto who project to a 150 wRC+ and then a bunch of guys in the 115-120 range. No one in between unless Bregman or Alonso are available (and most indications are they are not really).
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Okay yeah it's done
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It's probably a comparable offense to last year (there's no Bellinger but you're replacing a lot of replacement level PAs with Jorge Polanco's ~115 wRC+). That pitching staff, assuming Taillon’s dong problems from last year aren't permanent, will absolutely horsefeathers people up. It is good and it is deep. Like 1908 said it sucks to not pull down a star, but realistically there's only 3 of those available this winter. The worst thing in the world IMO would be paying e.g. Bellinger star money just because you're feeling burned and impatient.
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If Jed doesn't pull down Ohtani, he ought to go after Soto. If he doesn't do that for whatever reason, I'd expect two solid bats and a pretty stellar group of pitchers brought in. Basically an offseason like this: - Trade for Glasnow - Trade for Jorge Polanco - Sign Imanaga - Sign Hoskins - Sign one of the high end relievers (Stephenson?) - Trade for another high end reliever (one of the Marlins lefties?) It's not nearly as fun as an Ohtani or Soto offseason but that team is very very strong
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He is right about just enough that you have to listen to him, but he trips on his horsefeathers in hilarious and embarrassing ways constantly. Similar to Bowden. Always listen to him about anything White Sox related though, he's clearly connected to Reinsdorf.
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Yeah this one feels about as inevitable as any move in a while.
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So the leads for all the teams that are in on Ohtani are conspicuously missing from Nashville, and it's been more or less confirmed he was in San Fran over the weekend? So are things basically just 2-3 days behind where we thought they were going to be on Thursday/Friday because people didn't account for the SFG meeting?
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I've never felt more confident than this moment
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Feels like Free Agency will sit still for as long as Ohtani takes, within reason. I don't think the trade market holds on much longer. A couple teams not really in on Ohtani like the Braves (I don't buy this AM's report) appear itchy to get things moving.
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Levine seems pretty convinced Glasnow happens this week at the meetings
