Bertz

I'm like 60/40 on whether I want the Cubs to come down with him just because I think the tantrums if they don't will be hilarious

Even with modest projections for their offense, I think it's understated just how dramatic an upgrade Swanson and Mervis would be over the production they got from those positions last year. They were 25th in CF WAR. If they're at all right about how much Willson was giving back defensively and they add a C with a better bat than Gomes they may very well have parity there too. I would rather they sign Correa regardless, but a lot of my view on the offseason hinges on if ownership actually has the appetite to go over the LT this year. If they don't, then the likely outcome here isn't exactly how I would play it out, but with the number of holes and the market being higher than expected I can at least appreciate the logic. That starts with Swanson being the 'settling' outcome though, you can't whiff on a SS. Yeah simply swapping out Schwindel and Rivas' '22 production for Mervis' '23 projection is a 3 win swing. This team, with the resources available and the baseline talent on November 1st, should project to at least ~85 wins at the end of the day. Adding more from there becomes substantially more expensive and painful. I'd continue pushing, but that at least hits the point where some reservations and more forward looking are understandable. But like we should at minimum add something approaching 15 WAR. For example: Swanson (3.5 WAR) Bellinger (2 WAR) Taillon (2 WAR) Vazquez (2 WAR) Trevor Rogers (2 WAR) Brandon Belt (1.5 WAR) A couple relievers (1-2 WAR) That is a very realistic offseason with very little chance of making us look back in two years and rue the day any of those moves were made.

We are not even close to being that far off. I mean the team would project a smidge over .500 even if you just filled out the roster with boring dudes on 1 year deals.

Well this is certainly going to have some implications

I think this is one of the consequences of banking Bellinger, is that guys looking for short term deals that are Mancini+ in caliber are only going to be okay with primary 1B/DH playing time if that's their only option. So that should conceivably keep Brantley as a LHH possibility, but probably eliminates names like Conforto and Gallo. I do generally agree though, which is why I'd like it if I saw names like Narvaez(instead of Vazquez) and/or Belt listed more prominently. I completely forgot Brandon Belt existed, he'd be kind of perfect. I know he had a pretty major injury, so maybe the quiet is a sign that he's not physically in a good place, but broadly even assuming some extra risk I think I like him more than anyone we've talked about except Brantley.

So based on the names we keep hearing, seems like most likely offseason on the position player side is Swanson, Vazquez, and Mancini. I'd guess the lineup would look something like this: 2B - Hoerner (110 projected wRC+) LF - Happ (114) SS - Swanson (104) RF - Suzuki (128) CF - Bellinger (97) 1B - Mancini (107) DH - Mervis (122) 3B - Morel (105) C - Vazquez (93) BN - Gomes (92), Madrigal (100), Wisdom (97), Mastrobuoni (103) Pros: - Very strong defensively, and that's backed by athleticism so you don't worry about the new shift rules - It's really deep. Between the bench, Iowa, and the positional versatility of Morel/Hoerner/Bellinger, the team can absorb an injuries or guys sucking. And even a couple injuries deep that should stay a fairly productive bottom of the order Cons: - The flipside to that depth is a lack of standouts on the offensive side. You probably need Bellinger, Seiya, or some of the youths could end up providing impact offense, but no one you can count on anchoring the lineup from day 1 - There’s no reliable source of LHH power. Despite the great season Happ had a power outage last year, we all know Bellinger's issues, and Mervis is a rookie. And none of the potential impact guys at Iowa are LHH either. That last point to me is why the Mancini interest is really lame. With Wisdom already around as a RHH corner guy I feel like offensive fit should be prioritized over defensive fit. As others have said, it's not the sexiest lineup but I do think it wins a lot of games, especially if the tradeoff for going Swanson instead of Correa and Mancini instead of Bell/Abreu is a more legit other SP. Someone like Bassitt or Eovaldi or Lopez.

I think generally folks are too down on Amaya right now, but hard to justify him in front of Canario. Like either you weight injuries really heavily or you don't. Also you probably ought to punish Davis more if you do? Similar on the pitching side, I get not abandoning Kilian, but feels like most arguments you could make for Top 10ing Kilian would say you probably need to stay high (higher?) on Wicks?

Ironic that in an offseason of SPs getting way more than expected the guy with a huge variance in opinions got exactly what MLBTR predicted. Really curious what Jed's got up his sleeve for the rotation. Someone we haven't talked about much is Eovaldi. His contract likely ends up pretty modest because of the qualifying offer. Wonder if Jed has the stomach to sign two QO guys, the second basically just cancels out the pick we get for Willson I believe.

I'm fairly all in on the idea that Swanson's just about done and everyone agreed to press pause until after his wedding. It makes a lot of stuff from the past 4/5 days fit together nicely.

I didn't realize until after I saw this and looked it up that Swanson is getting married tomorrow. I wonder if all the confidence from Crane et al is that the Cubs have a deal with him that's on like the 1 Yard line that's been put on pause because of the wedding.

Dan Szymborski, the projections guy, has said that you need a ton of PAs (IIRC something like 1500-2000) before you're better off trusting a hitter's actual L/R splits more than just generic L/R splits. For Morel specifically, his K/BB numbers were better against lefties, he just had a much higher BABIP and much higher HR/FB rate against righties. So even more than most guys feels like we should chalk that up to SSS. I'd guess Morel plays everyday, and mostly just moves around defensively based on matchups. Then Wisdom, who ironically was split neutral in '21 before having big splits in '22, is the guy whose play time is mostly as the RH counterpart for Mervis and Bellinger.

Yeah that's fair. I feel like "not the finishing piece" and "allowing them to act patiently" to me says that he's the complimentary guy, but the talk of building layers of depth and top non QO target would work the other direction. On the bat, that seems right? Let's say they come down with Swanson, Vazquez, and Brantley. This would be the position player group: C - Vazquez 1B - Mervis 2B - Hoerner SS - Swanson 3B - Morel LF - Happ CF - Bellinger RF - Suzuki DH - Brantley Bench - Gomes, Wisdom, Madrigal, one of Mastrobuoni/Mckinstry That's a full group. Madrigal making it to ST with the team in this scenario would feel unlikely, so they could add another player, but they'd still have Nelly (logical platoon option with Bellinger) or Higgins (Ross seems to like 3 catchers on the roster) in house that fit well on the end of the roster. I'd kind of guess if they do add a fourth position player it'll be someone low cost and highly specialized, like maybe a super fast outfield defense/baserunning threat, or a more defensive minded 3rd catcher than Higgins.

A couple of blurbs from Mooney this morning: I think this was talked about on here somewhere yesterday as likely, that the Cubs' to-do list has a bat on it but the ability for that guy to play 1B is more of a nice to have I take this as Taillon is viewed as being the "other" SP this winter, but they wanted to get it done now to make sure they didn't whiff entirely on the rotation. Are they planning to pull down their top guy via trade? Pablo Lopez?

Yeah Bellinger was not brought in with the intention of playing 1st. Is the flexibility nice, sure. There are certainly scenarios where Bellinger and Davis are both crushing it and that's a way to get them both into the lineup. But Bellinger's been one of the worst hitters in the league the last two years but has played monster enough defense to mostly compensate for it. They're planning on the latter continuing while trying to mitigate the former.

Dansby. Ah, good call!

If Jed's willing to blow past the LT, even with the caveat that it's predominantly with 1 year deals, he can make a very good team even with Swanson as the crown jewel. For example, something like Swanson Vazquez Corey Kluber Michael Brantley Adam Ottavino Taylor Rogers That plugs every hole on the roster with a legitimately good player. The defense would be fantastic and the offense would be good, though sorely lacking a "the guy." The pitching staff would be similar, I'd probably feel good with every pitcher we have on the mound except Hendricks (which there's no getting around). Probably about half the opening day Iowa staff too. Again though lacking a guy you'd throw out there in game one, or hell maybe even game two, of a playoff series. Is it the team you're gonna pick up to use in MLB the Show? Absolutely not. Is it going to win a lot of games? I really think so. It's not sexy, but loading up on depth and grinding opposing teams down really works (at least I'm the regular season...). But you've gotta spend. If you're punting on adding a star, you've gotta be buttoned up absolutely everywhere. Every horsefeathering inning and every horsefeathering plate appear needs to be taken by a guy you're happy to have on the roster. Otherwise you've gotta hope to get an unexpected superstar performance from internal options, or hope that the Cardinals faceplant. Neither is a smart thing to count on. Man, this would be such a depressing outcome. Upside is one year of potentially backing into a WC spot. The approach certainly has some problems, but I wouldn't view it as a one year thing. Quite the opposite really, it's kicking the can down the road again on doing something super fun in the name of sustainability. The main appeal is that you've kept the majority of your powder dry. You've signed no QO free agents, you've traded no prospects, and you've added less in multi-year FA contracts than you have rolling off the books a year from now. If Stroman indeed ends up opting out, you open next offseason $100M+ under the Luxury Tax. Given the prospects currently in the upper minors, plus that we'd essentially be swapping Heyward/Hendricks for Swanson/Taillon, we'd be starting next offseason at a baseline of closer to 85 wins than the 75ish they started this winter at. At that point $100M can do some real horsefeathering damage. But like the FO hasn't brought in a Star since Darvish right before horsefeathering ST 2018. That sucks.

If Jed's willing to blow past the LT, even with the caveat that it's predominantly with 1 year deals, he can make a very good team even with Swanson as the crown jewel. For example, something like Swanson Vazquez Corey Kluber Michael Brantley Adam Ottavino Taylor Rogers That plugs every hole on the roster with a legitimately good player. The defense would be fantastic and the offense would be good, though sorely lacking a "the guy." The pitching staff would be similar, I'd probably feel good with every pitcher we have on the mound except Hendricks (which there's no getting around). Probably about half the opening day Iowa staff too. Again though lacking a guy you'd throw out there in game one, or hell maybe even game two, of a playoff series. Is it the team you're gonna pick up to use in MLB the Show? Absolutely not. Is it going to win a lot of games? I really think so. It's not sexy, but loading up on depth and grinding opposing teams down really works (at least I'm the regular season...). But you've gotta spend. If you're punting on adding a star, you've gotta be buttoned up absolutely everywhere. Every horsefeathering inning and every horsefeathering plate appear needs to be taken by a guy you're happy to have on the roster. Otherwise you've gotta hope to get an unexpected superstar performance from internal options, or hope that the Cardinals faceplant. Neither is a smart thing to count on.

So to level set post meetings: - The Cubs seem to be the clear favorites for Swanson, and maybe not quite so clear but favorites for Christiam Vazquez - Correa seems to be on the table, but only Gordon Wittenmeyer is emphatically banging that drum so they're likely on the periphery - With Bogaerts signing in SD, the dual SS scenario appears dead - Since the Taillon signing, I don't believe we've seen a link to any other SPs except maybe Senga. So I don't think we have a great feel for how big they're going on the other SP - Post Bellinger, there haven't been any updates on the 1b/DH options being looked at, so again how big are they going here Things are at sort of an interesting point. If the team pulls down Swanson and Vazquez as expected, there's only a bit over $20M left to spend under the Luxury Tax. That's kind of an awkward spot for us on the outside, because it's enough that you could reasonably fill out the rest of the roster if you skimp, but like you'd be sacrificing quite a bit on the margins. Spending a bit of a premium on Taillon and Bellinger just to end up here doesn't seem very Jed-like, but it's a real enough possibility that you have to stay mindful of it. After all I think many of us said the same thing after the team picked up Cole Hamels' option in 2019, and we all know how things proceeded from there.

That's honestly like $100M more than I'd be willing to give Bogaerts. What an absolutely silly contract. Especially after Trea Turner's deal, and especially with how loaded the Padres were in the infield already. You have to wonder about a trade. I mentioned a week or two ago when the Padres SS rumors first picked up, but Machado with his opt out after this year would seem to be the most obvious choice. And while he's not a capable full time SS anymore he'd still fit most of what the Cubs are looking for. Similarly if Jake Cronenworth (assuming he can play left side of the IF) and Trent Grisham both make a lot of sense.

I think he was posted in the last few days? Sox must have bid WAYYYYY above the rest of the industry because these guys usually use almost all of their 30 Day window

I was one of if not the very highest on Clarke, and even I'm gonna chalk only losing him up as a huge win.

I think Turner and Brantley are the only two who I'd he comfortable being *the* bat if we sign Swanson. Maybe JD Martinez. I do hope we get some resolution on SS pretty quickly here, because so much of the other stuff is hard to evaluate without knowing what's happening there.

If I was hanging my hat on anything for the Cubs to coax out of Bellinger, it would be more about the health/athleticism stuff. The Cubs have the "High Performance" with all the sports scientists and such. Nico is probably the only notable MLB example, but a bunch of minor leaguers have gotten sufficiently yoked under their tutelage the last few years. It's not hard to see the team (plus the additionalsix months) getting Bellinger's shoulder back closer to 100% and Cody himself taking it from there.