Bertz

Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers.

My ideal path forward from here is something like: - Nate Eovaldi (2/40) - Trade for Danny Jansen - Sign Taylor Rogers (1/10) - Sign Michael Brantley (1/15) - Trade Madrigal for the best young reliever he can net you You blow past the luxury tax, but so much comes off after this year that you can be very active in FA again next winter and still duck back under the tax then. And that's a really good and deep team. Light on stars but good essentially up and down the entire roster.

The former, but not by much.

That'd be my hope. I'm sure Jed doesn't want to give up the Contreras pick but Eovaldi is really good and can probably be had on a two year deal.

Very good news. Curious where the money nets out, and whether Jed and ownership are willing to cross the luxury tax. But the realistic paths to an actual good team next year all flowed through Swanson at this point, so the biggest domino is down.

I love this idea. Carrasco has been a guy I've really liked around the league for a while. I'm not sure there's another guy out there I like more as the other SP. I don't care for McCann but at this point short of Jansen we're not getting a catcher I like so whatever. Carrasco, McCann, money to cover McCann's 2024 salary, and a 45 grade prospect in exchange for some org filler? This would only work though if Jed misses on Swanson or if Jed's willing to jump the LT. $24M on top of whatever Swanson ends up making would probably take a second bat off the table if we're adhering to the luxury tax.

5 years at first blush is silly, but the total $75M is very reasonable. I think this is clearly a smaller scale version of the Turner/Bogaerts/Correa thing.

Yeah this is great, Lance is awesome. A few pieces of additional context I'd throw out there: - Research has shown that athletic players tend to age better. My understanding is it's less about the athleticism, and more about how if you impact the game in multiple ways even if one area collapses the others can still keep your head above water (Jason Heyward as an extreme example) - Part of the reason that hitter contact goes down with age is as a tradeoff for power. Swanson clearly made that trade in the '19/'20 offseason. Pre pandemic Swanson had a 9.4% walk rate, 22.5% K rate, and .140 ISO. Since he's at 7.6%, 26%, and .186 (with a less lively ball) - Swanson since the pandemic is running below average walk rates, but Statcast has his chase rates in the 65-70th percentile range the last three years (and higher = good here). So like I know the instinct is to see high K's and low BB's and think he's Javy at the plate but very much no - Barrel rate is one of the stickiest Statcast era hitting stats. Over the last three years among guys with 1000+ PAs, Swanson is 43rd out of 160. Within a stones throw of guys like Manny Machado (40th), Freddie Freeman (42nd), Willson Contreras (49th), and Kyle Tucker (50th) I feel like there's a losing the forest for the trees deal with Swanson (with the fanbase generally, not calling you out specifically or anything). He's probably not as good as Turner or Correa, but he's *really* good. Like he's actually been better than Correa for the last three years by Fangraphs WAR. Contact is a very real issue but it's the difference between him being an all star and an MVP rather than the difference between being a bad player and a good one.

The thing that makes me pessimistic on this compared to the alternatives is I have a hard time seeing that deal work without a 3rd team unless the Jays are willing to ship off Jansen to beef up the farm system. Mayyybe there's a 'Conforto's ask is reasonable so we trade Happ and an arm for Jansen and sign Conforto' type permutation but that feels aggressively unlikely given the near radio silence on everything that's not the SS pursuit. That's fair, though I'd guess it's fairly likely they would take a deal for just prospects. Their farm has thinned out considerably the last two years, and if we treat Moreno as an MLBer instead of a prospect its downright bad. Even if it's just loading up knowing they're going to turn around and spend that capital in July I Toronto would be very interested in refueling their farm. It is an illustration of just how dangerous this game Jed's playing is. Like all it takes is one GM to say "Happ or no deal" and Jed's essentially completely holed off from making substantial upgrade at catcher. He'll probably end up with a few good deals by waiting this long into FA, but you've gotta imagine it bites him hard at at least one position.

I think the glass half full explanation would be they're going hard after Jansen. People are fairly wondering where the offense is going to come from if Swanson is the premier addition this offseason, and Jansen would be a good way to inject some more juice into the lineup. Also he's a cheaper financial option so if the LT is a major consideration he opens up more there as well. Otherwise yeah it's tough to see what the thought process is. Both from numbers and reporting Narvaez seemed like the logical conclusion after Vazquez, but that ship sailed and it seems it did with little fight. Is Oakland going to flip Manny Pina, who'd fit right into that Vazquez/Narvaez mold? Is the plan to lean all the way into defense and go with Hedges? Like you said do they think they can fix an offensive-forward guy like Alfaro? Do they have really good reports on one of Barnhart/Perez/Casali? I'd believe anything.

There are still good alternatives to Narvaez, but how confident should I really be that the alternative Jed is planning to go with is one of the better ones.

Shockingly reasonable contract. I think 5/150ish was the expectation coming into the winter. Wonder of the Twins, who sounded a bit lukewarm on Swanson, reconsider.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/ Based on this article, 74 was the number at the outset of the offseason (I think maybe the Hunter Renfroe trade had happened but that's it). Adding Taillon, Bellinger, and Boxberger, they're probably at like 78. So getting to 81 is easy. I think even if Jed limited himself to boring 1 year deals from here out he'd hit 82-83. The thing about Swanson is that, setting aside Rodon or a trade for a superstar (either of which would be very silly after passing on Correa/Turner), almost all of the paths to 85+ wins from here flow through him.

Boxberger is good. Something funny about him is that for the most part he's been really good when playing for teams big on pitch design and pretty bad when he hasn't. I think there's a decent argument his time with the Royals and Marlins is unfairly weighing down his projections. Like TT said I'd like to see the team go a bit bigger on the other FA reliever. But do that and maybe grab another live arm in trade (for Madrigal?) and the pen should be a really strong unit.

Now that we have Statcast there's no reason to look at a high BABIP and assume it's just good fortune. There's no indication under the hood that Swansons performance the last three years is built on luck. To the contrary, he's underperformed his xwOBA by a smidge despite being a pretty fast dude.

I still tend to think baseball Twitter has overcorrected and he's gonna get less than a lot of the numbers being thrown around. Clearly the market is significantly hotter than anticipated before the offseason, but even against that backdrop I think Bogaerts is the only deal I'd have said was insane three months ago. Swanson topping $200M would be similarly insane. That said, if that's what it takes that's what it takes. Jed made his bed now he's gotta lie in it.

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing. My intention was to have Madrigal in the lineup in pencil to start out, with Morel nipping at his heels, and also playing a decent amount of 3B since Turner's a bit iffy over there already and at his age could quickly go from kinda bad to really bad. But having it the other way around and making Madrigal earn his way into the lineup is plenty fair. But yeah, the non-Swanson outcomes are ugly. The fact that the above is pretty much the best realistic scenario I can dream up is dark.

A no shortstop offseason would have been a lot more viable if it was the plan from the beginning. Add an Abreu or Bell, go harder on SP, etc. I think at this point the top tier no SS offseason is probably something like - Trade for Danny Jansen - Sign Nate Eovaldi - Sign the best DH option available (Michael Brantley?) - Sign someone who can cover 3B and/or SS. I'd prioritize offense and do someone like Justin Turner - Go fairly hard on the bullpen, but guys who are already good rather than those you think you can make good, something like Taylor Rogers and Adam Ottavino But like if they're drawing such a hard line on keeping the powder dry, even the above plan you have to have doubts around Jed's appetite for the modest prospect costs of Jansen and Eovaldi's QO.

Man the pressure is really on to nab Swanson. Because the order of events means there's not really anything else to pivot to. Like I'm cool with Swanson and have been for a while. But a no shortstop offseason and to a lesser extent a Swanson offseason necessitated going hard essentially everywhere else. If you whiff on Dansby too...yikes.

As bad as it would be for the Cubs this would totally be worth it for the meltdowns. Oh man so many meltdowns.

I started looking at him this afternoon too. It feels like there's about a 30% chance he dumps his sinker, plays with a couple breaking ball grips, and resumes being awesome even at his new velo. But there's like a 70% chance he's just simply washed. He's basically pitcher Bellinger.

Because the GM is obsessed with efficiency and the owner is comfortable with the business model of a losing Cubs team still being profitable. but there are lots of guys who would still have fit into an efficiency plan with more bulk. jed can't be scared of 2 year deals. I mean the obvious answer to your question is that the offseason is not done yet, particularly in the "guys who will settle for 1-2 year deal" range. Like I'm nervous about who the other SP is going to be, since that's a position that's been picked over pretty good, but otherwise IMO it's just wait and see what happens with the shortstops before getting too depressed or elated. IMO it's telling that Jed was expedient in addressing CF, the thinnest position in FA.

I still think the most likely explanation for all the "we've got the money" talk is less palace intrigue and more that PTR is less worried about not coming down with anybody than the fanbase is. Possibly related, Russ Dorsey posted this a few hours and then just retweeted himself a few minutes ago Swanson might be imminent, and given Dorsey's time as a Cubs beat guy it's encouraging that he seems plugged in here (assuming you're like me and actually like Swanson).

Based on Twitter vibes the Orioles and Red Sox seem to be the two fanbases having a tougher time than the Cubs

Yeah there's some stuff to really like about Ruiz, and he's a guy the new rules might help even more, but he should be the other guy in return for Contreras not by far the most valuable piece.