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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    This argument is basically the definition of specious reasoning
  2. Bertz
    I mean more or less yeah I do see them as interchangeable. I think most would agree that Wicks would rank first and Assad last, but it's not much daylight between them. - Assad has 150 pretty successful MLB innings under his belt. The stuff I pretty pedestrian, limiting the upside, but a trade partner *knows* he's a quality contributor, and can be cautiously optimistic he can do it as a starter - Brown clearly has the best stuff, but with his injuries, occasional walk issues, and the fact that he hasn't thrown an MLB pitch yet clearly has the highest risk - Wicks had a great cup of coffee, but 34 innings is not enough to consider him established. The Stuff+ metrics are not super kind to him, though the ones on Fangraphs are terrible at handling changeups so he's probably closer to average in that regard There's real pros/cons to each, and maybe you weight those differently than I do, but making one of these guys an untouchable over the others would be pretty silly IMO.
  3. Bertz
    I like BJ a lot. I'll be interested in seeing what people say about him defensively in prospect lists this winter. Cubdom made it sound like he improved there in 2023, making him much less of a tweener than he looked like a year ago. The bat definitely improved, and it more or less looks like he just launch angled himself. But doing that without sacrificing any contact is a big deal. I also like that he's a real switch hitter. He hits for average as a right and power as a lefty, but he's actually good from both sides of the plate: As a lefty: .256/.371/.479 As a righty: .266/.386/.457 And it was similar in 2022 As a lefty: .236/.354/.491 As a righty: .296/.422/.415 I really wish he was a little further along. If we could count on him being an option at 3B in the short term, Madrigal starting out with Murray breathing down his neck would probably be a better 3B solution than most of what's out on the FA/trade markets currently.
  4. Bertz
    The Alonso bit was interesting So one of Assad/Brown/Wicks and probably not much on top of that?
  5. Bertz
    This is a takeaway I have too. I've thought for a while the top end of the domestic FA market was a no go. I'd still generally like to avoid it (give me one of the Japanese starters please), but someone like Jordan Montgomery certainly feels more likely than he did yesterday. And with the resources available, one big signing, one big trade, and a couple smaller signings makes the most sense from a resource allocation standpoint.
  6. Bertz
    I didn't think Hendricks was going anywhere even if Stro stayed. Now that Stroman's gone though there's about a ten thousand percent chance Hendricks sticks around. Only question is if they do it straight on his option or do something like 2/$25M. Even with a surplus of promising youths Jed is not going to back himself into a corner needing multiple vet SPs.
  7. Bertz
    So assuming Hendricks and Gomes aren't going anywhere (either of which would be far more shocking than Stro opting out) payroll now is ~$185M. The first luxury tax level is $237M, so leaving some money for the deadline and such there's probably $40-45M to that level. If Jed can go up to the second LT level (the point where draft penalties start kicking in), it’s $80-85M.
  8. Bertz
    Nice, the reporting said this was going the other way but I thought Stroman would be better served to opt out. This is good news, not because Stroman's not worth the money but because it opens up so much more flexibility for Jed and Co. It does make SP an absolute necessity now instead of a nice to have.
  9. Bertz
    That linked article is really great. It might also have the answer to the homerun problem buried in it I'm not the most knowledgeable about the pitch design stuff, but I *believe* that high spin riding fastballs do great at the top of the zone and terrible at the bottom. See this FG article, and the money chart mapping whiff rates: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visualized-primer-on-vertical-approach-angle-vaa/ I don't want to generalize about Japanese baseball too much, but I believe their pitchers are still generally taught to pitch to contact and get groundballs. If Imanaga has a more western style repertoire but is trying to pitch low in the zone it might be a simple round peg square hole deal?
  10. Bertz
    I like that Jorge is an actual lefty killer. A lot of our righties are better against lefties, but not WAY better. On the whole that's better, but you do actually want 1 or 2 guys who are like 150 wRC+ vs lefties /100 vs righties. I also like that he's a proven DH. A lot of guys can't actually do it even if it's where they ought to play(the Giambi conundrum). That said, Soler opting out means he feels pretty confident he can net a multi-year deal. As much as I do like some things about his bat, that feels pretty close to being a hard pass. If he could fake it at 1st or we were more confident in getting his 2023 level of production it'd be different.
  11. Bertz
    Kantrovitz staying
  12. Bertz
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2023-24-ballot-5-of-11/ I was doing the contract crowdsourcing polls for Fangraphs, and the one for the guys coming over from Asia is pretty fascinating. I did not realize how close Imanaga and Yamamoto are. ZiPS actually has Imanaga better on a per inning basis. I've been pretty Yamamoto or bust in free agency but seeing this makes me soften on that.
  13. Bertz
    A little disappointing on Estrada and Burdi but neither is super surprising
  14. Bertz
    I'm of the mind that ideally for his development yeah you'd probably give PCA til Memorial Day before you call him up. But I think the PPI plus the fact that he's plus plus outside of the batter's box (providing some real floor) will have him open the year in MLB. It won't be gifted to him, I'm sure he's got some very real boxes to check during spring training, but it looks to be the way the wind is blowing IMO. That said I'm a big Tauchman fan. I have no worries about him getting significant run in CF. Yeah there's no power there but a lefty with a ~league average bat and nominal splits is pretty valuable out in CF. And the lack of power *should* be less of an issue next year since I expect our primary hitter acquisition(s) to provide it in spades. Canario is also a fun idoesn't. compliment to Tauchman who probably gets an MLB roster spot if PCA doesnt.
  15. Bertz
    I think PCA opens the year in MLB unless he faceplants in spring training. Him getting called up despite such a narrow path to playing time felt like they were trying to get him ready mentally/emotionally ready for big league life. Like I remember one of Theo/Jeds reasons for holding Bryant and Russell down I'm '15 was that rookies debuting with all of the pomp and circumstance of opening day tended to get kind of overwhelmed. It was obviously an excuse, but they probably chose that excuse instead of another because there is some truth to it. That said more broadly I agree. Iowa didn't provide as many reinforcements last year as it should have, particularly on the reliever side. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot more meat on that roster to open '24 knowing that ultimately we're going to need to call some guys up and have them produce more or less immediately.
  16. Bertz
    I'd guess it's very unlikely Little opens the year in MLB. There's probably only going to be one truly open spot in the bullpen to be competed for in spring training, and if it goes to a lefty Hughes feels more likely. But like Little only had 8 appearances at Iowa, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for him to get more seasoning. Little looks to at a minimum be absolute death on lefties though. Last year he did not give up an XBH to a left hander his entire time in the minors. He did allow a double in MLB, but it was a groundball down the line from Jace Peterson. Across all levels lefties slugged .161 (!!!) against him. The walks are an issue, and what will decide if he's ultimately a closer or a middle reliever, though he doesn't completely lose the strike zone as much as you'd expect from a guy with a 15ish percent walk rate.
  17. Bertz

    LCS

    Bertz replied to CubinNY's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    Yeah Phillies/Braves was fun, and both LCS series going 7 was fun, but pretty rough October from a viewability standpoint. Last year was great so not necessarily an indictment of the new format but it's in the back of my mind.
  18. Bertz
    Jim Bowden is the joke of all jokes. HOWEVER, his contract predictions at the start of each offseason have a history of being shockingly solid. https://theathletic.com/5008102/2023/10/31/mlb-free-agents-2023-contract-team-predictions?source=user-shared-article He has Mitch Garver getting 2/$20M and Jeimer Candelario getting 2/$15. Brandon Belt isn't projected, but him not being a Top 40 FA is a clear sign he's not going to break the bank either. But those are 3 very solid 1B options slated to make "other bat" money. (I do expect that Candelario will make more than Bowden says) I think 3B if we don't bring back Candelario is where we're most likely to look in March and be like "Uhhhhh Jed I think that part of the roster could have used a bit more love." As an aside I love that we finally have all this young pitching and don't have to shop for rotation depth, but this would be a very good winter to be in the market for a back-end arm or two. Where was this in like 2019?
  19. Bertz
    I'm curious to see how much longer the club let's Arias go as a starter. Luke Little and Daniel Palencia at roughly the same stage of development a year ago basically got til Memorial Day. Does Arias get more since the bullpen will (hopefully) be less of an acute need? Or is this roughly the point in development where a clear future reliever has learned all he can by starting?
  20. Bertz
    Here's a pretty thorough look at the budget I did a few weeks ago. My guess is that the limitations on the budget are more tied to multi-year commitments than 2024 dollars specifically. Like I could see the team running a ~$270M payroll this year, but I can't see Jed putting himself into a situation where new multi-year commitments mean payroll is already like $230M for 2026. That's what happened to Theo and Jed in 2019, and it really feels like Jed's being over-cautious the last few years is very much a "never again" response to that.
  21. Bertz
    Aesthetically I love guys with insane speed. Setting aesthetics aside though, I don't see the need for a RHH infielder who you can't confidently plan on being the everyday 3B? Like TT says, is he actually any better than Madrigal? He's gotten only very limited run in the outfield, but if you told me he was a strong defender out there too that'd change my mind.
  22. Bertz
    This sucks. The Cubs fandom has a lot of good prospect writers at this point but Bryan was either at or damn near the top of the list.
  23. Bertz
    Roster spots and playing time are a finite resource that you don't seem super keen on acknowledging
  24. Bertz
    FWIW Jesse Rogers did an interview a week or so back and said he doesn't expect Jed to go nuts in FA but that he does expect significant trade activity. I'd imagine a lot of it is how terrible the FA class is. Yamamoto is literally the only impact FA without major warts.
  25. Bertz
    This is the crux of things IMO. You want one or two impactful moves that significantly raise the talent level of the team this winter. Jed can probably cobble together ~1.5 WAR with internal options at each of 1B/DH/3B. So if he has the resources to add say 8 WAR this winter, you'd want as much of that concentrated into 1 big guy as possible. If you do 3 acquisitions at 2.8 WAR each, you're adding about 4 wins to the bottom line. But if you add a 5.5 WAR player (e.g. Soto) and a 2.5 WAR player (e.g. Garver or Polanco) you're actually netting 5 wins. I'm as guilty of playing Efficiency Olympics as anyone. But doing that has two potential purposes: line the owners pockets or free up resources for an expensive star acquisition. We certainly don't want to do the former so if you're going to hyper focus on efficiency the endgame has to include one of the latter
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