Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Defenses obviously operate differently with a 3 score lead, but I think that was a really good half from Fields. Particularly on the road against the #2 defense in the NFL.
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While clearly the Cubs will be looking at DH types, I don't know if they are going to want a guy who can't play any defense at all. But JD's still a very legit hitter.
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Might be catching Dallas at a good time
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NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others
Bertz replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in General Baseball Talk
The Brewers are in a tight spot this winter, so it is an especially painful time for Stearns to bail. If they pick up the options on Wong and Boxberger they'd already be back at last year's payroll. Interestingly, about 2/3's of that payroll is those aforementioned club options and guys in arbitration. So they can turn the roster over pretty aggressively if they'd prefer, but even still there's not a lot of easy decisions. The guys set to make substantial money are either their building blocks (Burnes, Woodruff, Adams) or quality players in that awkward zone of too good to cut but not so good as they'll have much surplus value (Wong and Hunter Renfroe). Like it's going to take a lot of machinations just to keep the team where it was last year, much less make up the ground between them and the Cardinals. They do have a pretty good crew of kids at AAA ready to help, but in one of those winters with no margin for error where you really need to nail it losing the smartest person in the org is gonna hurt. I don't think they completely fall off next year, but I wouldn't be surprised if when all is said and done the Cubs project as a better team on paper heading into ST. And with Stearns and Hader gone I'm going to be much less worried about them way over performing expectations like 17/18/19. -
This is oddly specific for this early in the offseason Despite the need in CF he doesn't seem likely as a Cubs target, but still notable
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I like it, and while I might prefer some different names it's basically the exact shape of what I'm expecting Jed and co. to attempt. One thing I am curious about is the Jose Abreu rumors. I had been kind of assuming the DH would be someone pretty fungible like you went with here with Walsh. But Abreu is very much not an afterthought. Is Plan A to go much harder at that 1B/DH spot than you've done here, or is getting a higher end bat more of a backup plan if Jed doesn't come down with a shortstop? Because going from e.g. Walsh -> Abreu basically cuts off one or two additional moves.
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The Cards are now about $10M below last year's payroll, and they still have to deal with the Nolan Arenado situation. Mozeliak has already indicated that they will be increasing payroll, but unless it's a very healthy bump you're probably only looking at one or two more moves of substance. Something like Contreras and re-signing Quintana?
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For the sake of argument. Let's say 14 is their draft position. Would trading down make sense here? I haven't looked at anything related to draft projections Especially in light of all the cap space I think you just take the pick wherever it lies. They've got the money to ensure the team has adequate depth next year, take your swing at an impact player. I think the only way I trade back is if somehow they have a top 5 pick but also at the same time we feel really great about Fields, which feels like a very unlikely combo.
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NL Central: Reds, Pirates and others
Bertz replied to Hairyducked Idiot's topic in General Baseball Talk
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He's at 95/84 R/L the last three years which is what I was looking at, but digging deeper that appears to mostly just be an uncharacteristic for him 2021. You're right that split neutral is probably better way to think of him. Narvaez is interesting because he looked like an absolutely perfect compliment to Gomes prior to this year, but he was neutral this year and generally just an absolute trainwreck in the second half. It's probably safe to assume that was just his injury?
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This isn't so much a rumor as dot connecting, but I agree with Brett that Christian Vazquez makes a lot of sense. He and Yan Gomes are basically the same guy, except Vazquez is a little younger and has reverse splits. Sign him to the Yan Gomes contract and this year you can sorta platoon the two, then next year Vazquez can hopefully do the Amaya mentor thing.
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Yeah $70M might be safer. I don't know if I buy a Happ extension but certainly there's other ways those additional dollars could be allocated. I also wouldn't be surprised if Jed has essentially two numbers in mind, e.g. a $50M cap on multi-year deals and $80M overall. And there's typically only so much you can spend on one year deals. I think that was part of last winter is Jed only wanted to tie up so much long term money and ended up leaving some '22 funds on the table. And I think to your point the more I look at the landscape the more spending for a TOR starter in FA at all seems unlikely. I could see a trade, so definitely not ruling it out entirely, but I think if Jed sticks with FA to address the rotation the most likely outcome is a guy with TOR talent who's more speculative (e.g. Senga) and then someone boring and cheap in the Drew Smyly mold (probably actually Drew Smyly). But Rodon/Verlander/deGrom seem messy from a 2023 payroll perspective, and the tier below that with like Eovaldi and Bassit seems unlikely because I'm not sure that they're good enough that Jed's going to want to give them 3+ years (to say nothing of the qualifying offer).
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Football Outsiders also has them in the 8-10 range
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Team Payroll pages are updated too including the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections. At the moment the Cubs are about $85M under the Luxury Tax. Cutting Reyes, Brault, and Ortega would free up another ~$7M. So for your mental accounting figure on essentially $90M in available funds as an upper limit, but in practicality closer to $80M after a Hoerner extension and setting aside some money for the trade deadline.
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Looking over at ESPN, Justin Fields for his last 4 games has a 49.6 QBR. That would rank 19th in the league among current full season marks. His last 3 games he has a 54.6 QBR, which would rank 13th. We can't just wave off those first three games right now as that's nearly half his season. But the Giants game onward has felt like pretty normal young QB stuff. Hopefully as we get further from those early games it continues to become clear that those were the anomaly.
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Relatedly Kyler Gordon was horrific the first few games but he's looked really good the last 3ish as well
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Vince Vaughn pretty drunk tonight on the Manningcast?
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I'm really happy with Justin in the first half tonight. Especially since the Pats were DVOA's #7 defense coming into the week. The INT doesn't chap me much since it was a tip, I think the fumbles (especially the first one) were greater sins.
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Also Joe Davis is a phenomenal announcer. We need to get him a better partner.
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I know it's an uphill battle to get baseball players as famous as football and basketball players but considering Bryce was already #1 in MLB does this postseason get him the rest of the way to being like football famous?
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I'm tempted to say this series is over because you can't win three straight against the Phillies with Wheeler/Nola/Suarez going...but the Cubs just did that a month ago