Bertz

My theory on Madrigal is that with his speed he gets to a well above average number of balls, but his arm makes it so he converts a below average number into outs (and a lot of routine plays are closer than they should be). Net net he's a positive defender but those unmade plays stick in people's craw and he fails the eye test.

?!?

Very good news from a labor perspective. The Angels I believe have never passed the luxury tax. Even if the new owner is more PTR and less Steve Cohen, it should still result in more money in players' pockets. Also feels like this will push the Angels into having an impactful offseason, TBD whether that's a teardown or a build up

that's super interesting. Do you have any articles that talk about this? I've always been a QB and lines (O and D) guy in terms of constructing a football team. Here's a good one from PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush The first point is what I've seen most often in regards to this discussion. Basically the way that offenses have evolved has probably shifted the balance more towards coverage over pass rush.

I believe the football sabermetric consensus at the moment is that defensively the guys in the secondary matter a good deal more than the guys up front. Feels like comparing the '21/'22 Bears will be a good test case for that.

Sharma's article in the Athletic this AM made it sound like even if both sides are super happy with the relationship it'd likely have to be an extension:

Crawly was wrong, though I would still assume Kilian gets Wednesday

I wonder if one or both stay up. Thompson's presumably in the pen from here out, Hendricks is done for the year, and Miley seems pretty close. Ross poo-poo'd a six man rotation but maybe a piggyback deal with the youths? Or is Steele close to being shut down/shifted to the pen himself?

Who said the Cardinals weren't good? I know It's a common tactic here to move the goalposts in the middle of arguments, but I'm keeping them in place. They are mildly good, the definition of mediocre. I mean, you literally just did say they aren’t good by calling them the definition of mediocre. You said it a few days ago too.

Woof The (very faint) silver lining is that the timing is ideal. I remember while reading The Arm there was some mention of studies that showed better recovery for guys who got closer to 18 months between surgery and competitive games. Going under the knife now means he should be 100% for ST 2024.

Yeah pending the quality of the FA that's likely a fairly average starting 5. But Alzolay as the long guy in the pen plus Kilian/Wesneski at Iowa is very very good depth, and really raises the floor. They'll probably roster Sampson as another depth guy, too. He's a really interesting call. If he keeps up even 80% of what he's done so far, it'll feel really horsefeathers to keep him in Iowa. But he certainly shouldn't be given a spot in the starting 5, and doesn't feel particularly well suited to relief during the periods where everyone ahead of him is healthy. He might get a courtesy trade.

Something interesting about Palencia is he’s averaging more innings per start this year than Walker Buehler did in his one full season in the minors (2017). I feel like it’s pointless to just give up on starting for pitchers who are still building up IP, show they can start so far and are slower movers (Palencia is over a year from the bigs still). I think that's fair, and though I think part of Palencia's particular IP limits are self-imposed through poor control, it's not like the rotation spot he takes now or over the next 12 months are so precious that he'd be stunting anyone else's development. At the same time, when I think of 'holding velocity deep into games', I think of hitting triple digit pitch counts/3rd time through the order/6+ IP, so I wouldn't use that as a particular point in his favor based on what he's done so far. From a physical standpoint if you're still throwing gas 80+ pitches into a start, I'm not sure there's any difference between that being in the 4th or it being in the 6th.

Yeah pending the quality of the FA that's likely a fairly average starting 5. But Alzolay as the long guy in the pen plus Kilian/Wesneski at Iowa is very very good depth, and really raises the floor.

It's now been more than 3 months of Steele being very good. Since 5/15, his first against the Dbacks, and through 3 IP today: 17 GS, 88.2 IP, 80 H, 6 HR, 33 BB, 99 K, 2.86 ERA It's a little harder to back of the napkin FIP, but it's likely just a smidge over 3 so he's not crazy lucky or anything. Gotta start working a bit deeper into games but hot damn

When Palencia is on he is ON Part of me is impatient and would love him fast tracked in order to get to the bullpen next year, but he's such a unicorn being able to hold that crazy velocity so deep into games that you've gotta give it every shot as a starter

Good to see Seiya get a hit off of some velo

Madrigal better not be the leadoff hitter next year, but a 13 pitch PA to leadoff the game is extremely fun

Mekkes started for Iowa today, not sure what happened to force that. Caissie out of the lineup again. Hasn't played since Tuesday. Especially skipping both ends of a doubleheader, it's gotta be an injury.

Oof hopefully just dehydration or something minor. Forearms can run a pretty wide gamut of severity.

It’s been pretty fun this month. Obviously it sucks to miss out on a top pick but I don’t hate the potential outcome of the Cubs playing well to finish the season and getting a lot of positive momentum going into the offseason. 2 of the big SS FAs (Correa and Turner) have already come out and said they aren’t going to a rebuilding team. Hopefully a strong finish gives the appearance of a team that’s not too far off. I don't think winning meaningless games has ever had any impact on the next season. Especially when this team doesn't really have many future pieces. Like guys like Drew Smyly, Adrian Sampson, Patrick Wisdom, and even Willson Contreras (who might be gone next year) shouldn't be on any actual good Cubs teams yet they've been big contributors. And picking 13th in the Draft would be a huge failure in a year that they were done by May. Not saying they need to be #1 or even top 5 but there's a real chance they could be picking as low as 18th when it's all said and done with the lottery. May not seem bad now but we'll cringe at it when the draft comes around in July. Hoerner Happ Suzuki Morel Steele Thompson Velazquez Madrigal Wisdom About half the bullpen All are guys who will be on next year's team who do not have an established level of performance. I have no problem rooting for productive losses when the time is right. I was absolutely the guy rooting for Starlin to go 3/5 but the team to lose ten years ago, but there are far too many potential future contributors on the team at the moment to root for losses. And this isn't like last August where we were trying to talk ourselves into Frank Schwindel, they just mentioned on today's broadcast that the Cubs currently have the 6th youngest roster in baseball. Even guys like Smyly and Sampson are walking infomercials for the Cubs'pitching dev, which has non-zero value in this winter's FA. I forget which of Martin/Robertson it was but they said they chose Chicago over another comparable offer because reputation Hottovy and co. are starting to get around the league.

Yelich squaring to bunt here says volumes about where things stand with him right now