Bertz

So this is the very definition of an arbitrary endpoint as I basically just looked for the furthest back date where his K rate was under 20%, but Canario since 6/21: 162 PAs, .289/.401/.630, 15.4% BB, 19.8% K, 12 dongs He's a lot of fun right now. That said if Jed does make a deal of consequence this winter, Canario does seem to be the best combination of consequential and expendable? There's not really a scenario IMO where all four of Davis/Nelly/Canario/Seiya stick on the same MLB roster. Honestly even three seems unlikely? So while you don't need to make a trade, if you're making one this seems like one of the spots where you can most easily deal from some surplus.

I don't love Swanson or Bogaerts. Swanson looks like your classic guy having an out of nowhere career year in his walk year. And Statcast seems to indicate that the bottom is falling out of Bogaerts. I think Turner's the pretty clear top guy, but I also see him as a safe bet to re-sign with the Dodgers. So give me Correa and let's call it a day.

Did this a few months ago, but it bears updating. Here's where we're at with the 40 man roster plus who is due to be added this winter. The good news is that a lot of the marginal guys have washed out, so moving forward the 40 is certainly a consideration but it's not a dire one - Current roster stands at 39, with 6 on the 60 Day IL and 1 on the Restricted List. Therefore 46 in total - There are 3 impending FAs in Contreras, Miley and Smyly - 8 very easy cuts with Heyward, Vizcaino, Schwindel, Hermosillo, Bote, Rivas, Wieck and Mills - 5 guys are not quite slam dunks but seem more likely than not to also get cut in Ortega, Crook, Leiter, Brault, and Castro - Another 6 guys probably don't get cut but could if the next two months go poorly in Reyes, Mckinstry, Sampson, Rucker, Newcomb, and Espinoza So all told, there's likely 30-32 guys on the 40 man heading into the winter, but that could be as low as 25 if Jed wants to scorch the earth. Now for the additions: - Brennen Davis, Hayden Wisneski, Ben Brown, and Kevin Alcantara absolutely must be added to the 40 - There's a group of guys who are iffy since they have the prospectiness to get picked but likely not the readiness to stick on a roster for a full year. Guys include Luis Devers, Yohendrick Pinango, Ryan Jensen, Yovanny Cruz, and Riley Thompson - On the flip side guys with lower ceilings who do look like they could contribute next year if they were pushed into action like Chris Clarke, Yonathan Perlaza, Darius Hill, and like half the Iowa bullpen (Sanders, Estrada, Assad, Little, Hudson) The lost COVID development year has put most teams in a tough 40 man position, so the Cubs can probably get away without protecting any of the guys from those last two groups. But those are where the tougher decisions lie. Relatedly, if you do see any surprise MLB call-ups in the next 6 weeks it will be from that last cohort. There's already a but if smoke around Sanders, Estrada, and Hill. Overall, it's much less crunched than it looked a few months ago, which is the natural work of attrition. That said, I do think there's enough pressure that we see it influence moves over the next six months. For instance there's very little chance we see Matt Mervis this year, even though he's increasingly looking worthy of a cup of coffee. Similarly when Jed starts filling out the back of the pitching staff next February, I think we see 2-3 additions in the $5-10M range rather than the 5-6 adds in the <$5M range we saw this spring. And while I don't think we see a go for broke trade such as Ohtani, I do think Jed fills one of the MLB holes by trading some of this surplus.

Would love to have him start one of the Wash games next week, it's basically a AAA lineup anyway so should be a soft landing back into MLB

Hate to say it but the MB roster kind of sucks now. It's for the right reasons in that a bunch of guys got promoted, but feels a bit like Kevin Alcantara is Will Smith in that empty house meme. One of the drawbacks to going all pitching in the draft is there's not really been any backfill except for Ballesteros.

Steele very quietly went from being okay but exceptionally lucky to just plain good like two months ago. Super super encouraging stuff, especially in comparison to Keegan who seems to be (understandably) wearing down a bit Also he's got a good ways to go before he can win back our trust, but Madrigal's been legitimately good in his brief time back from the IL

Perlaza is probably a tweener. He doesn't have exceptional speed or power, so as a likely average defensive corner outfielder it puts a lot of pressure on the bat. But on paper the bat is very fun! Plus plus patience, average contact, good power, hits the ball mostly in the air while not also having a pop-up problem, a true switch hitter, etc. He checks a lot of the boxes of a guy who eventually outpaces his scouting report. That said because of the defensive limitations I think he still likely tops out as a good bench bat.

Nelly's had a strong couple of weeks even as he's getting more and more playing time against righties. Him just taking the CF job and running with it these last two months is something I haven't thought much about but would be fun as hell.

O's are comin'

PCA with a walk and a dong so far. Not sure which of those two things I'm more excited about

Canario is slumping, but the fun thing is the strikeouts are still MIA. We probably won't be able to say for another month but it's really looking like he made a material change to his contact ability

Almost no chance Kyle makes it back this year at this point

Like Palencia, extremely happy this was only a brief IL trip

It's absolutely just negotiating. I understand the consternation given the offseason to this point, but every contract hold out/hold in/whatever looks exactly like this.

It's not even a week but Madrigal has been the guy he was supposed to be since coming off the IL

Honestly I think he's just lucky Statcast wasn't implemented a year or two earlier. Jason Heyward xwOBA by year 2015 - .317 2016 - .301 2017 - .319 2018 - .319 2019 - .323 The differences between Heyward any year between 2013 and 2019 look to be like 80% BABIP and the run environment. Definitely the right call to pull the plug now. I thought it was a pretty safe assumption he wouldn't be back next year but I did think he'd come back in September. Glad the team isn't doing that.

He was a very fun bat before this year so certainly worth a shot. I'd also try and see if he could shift to 1B. There's room for a mostly DH on next year's roster if Willson doesn't stick around, but if Franmil could be part of the 1B mix too I'd think it drastically improves his odds of making it to next April with the org.

He seemed to be MLB ready right around this time last year, but his injury scuttled that and then he's been up and down much of this year. Would be nice if he's back at 100% to get him up to the big club soon and see if he's a guy we can pencil into next year's pen.

Looks like Ryan Jensen got skipped this week. I wonder if, given that adding an arm swing didn't appear to give him what it takes command-wise to be a starter, we see him get shifted to short relief like Cam Sanders.

Interesting that Newcomb is already back in short relief. Not bad, probably the right call, but it seemed when he was getting stretched out at Iowa like he was gonna get a shot at the rotation.

There was a 3 week IL stint mixed in there, but since the start of June Palencia has 49 Ks and 11 BBs in 35.1 IP He's probably about ready for Tenn once he's stretched back out