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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Caissie and PCA both make it for the Southern League. No other Cubs, though given the cutoffs I'd guess Ramirez, Hernandez, and maybe Ballesteros are in the next ten for the Carolina League and Triantos when if he were healthy would be in the 10-20 range for the MWL
  3. Bertz
    "Flex"-en you say?
  4. Bertz
    I guess another thing on Wicks. The Stuff+ grades on his pitches are reportedly Fastball - 116 Change - 108 Slider - 137 Curve - 82 That's three better than average pitches, with that slider getting an elite grade. Last year, 159 MLB pitchers threw 80+ innings (so starters and Keegan-esque swingmen). Of those: 34 had 3 or more pitches at 100 or better 42 had a primo pitch with a grade of 120 or better 19 had both Those 19 dudes were by and large your stars. There were two relative duds in the group, Keegan Thompson and Kyle Bradish. Keegan's easy enough to explain, that primo pitch is the slider he added mid-season. He only threw it 4% of the time last year all told because of how late he added it and his nascent command of the pitch. Bradish I'm not sure what his deal was. I guess every list has to have a WTF guy
  5. Bertz
    Great stuff. I think there's two really interesting things with Wicks that make me consider that top of the rotation potential. First is velocity. His fastball, even averaging 92-93, grades out well by the metrics thanks to a superlative spin/movement profile. So he doesn't *need* to add velocity. But you'd think they'd try right? To this point though I believe his velo is basically where it was when he got drafted. Did the team already try with him and fail, or have they not crossed that bridge yet? Generally adding velo is among the first things the org does with a pitcher, it usually goes Velocity -> Movement -> Command. Maybe they think they can't improve the velo without materially impacting the other qualities of his fastball? But like Brozdowski slapped a 116 Stuff+ grade on his fastball already, that's the same grade Shohei Ohtani's fastball had last year. (Despite the velo Shohei's fastball is more good than great, it's the secondaries that make him a monster) The other is the slider. It also gets outstanding grades, but all of the scouts who see it are pretty meh about it meh on it. So is it an impact weapon? Again via Brozdowski it got a 137 Stuff+ grade, which would rank it between Corbin Burnes and Dyla. Cease last year. Or is it a tertiary pitch and Jordan's still at the drawing board on finding that 3rd pitch he can lean on?
  6. Bertz
    Of the division mates, the Cards have definitely had the toughest schedule to open the season. But 4.5 games back of the Brewers already still seems like really bad news.
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    After tonight, in 9 games the Cubs will have faced 3 of the top 5 starters in baseball by projected ERA coming into the season
  9. Bertz
    Assad seemed likely to go down for Hughes in a few days so I guess they took advantage here since after yesterday Assad's spent for the next few days anyway. Wonder if Nelly is really only up for 2-3 days or if there's going to be more additional machinations once Hughes and Seiya are back to keep Nelly up
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    I'll be interested to see the pitch modeling data on his repertoire after this. That stuff does well in small samples but you'd still like to see a couple of starts before you jump to conclusions. That data for his first start though basically graded his stuff about the same except for his change, which it thought was trash. I'll be curious to see if that’s a result of this armslot adjustment, or if it was just a one-off because he didn't have the feel.
  13. Bertz
    Haven't watched, but from GameDay and his stats nothing scary is happening. There were a couple non-competitive ABs that first weekend, but on the whole he's just underneath the ball. K's are a bit elevated, but the swinging strike rate and the walks are both healthy, so it's mostly just a deep counts deal. He's hit a ton of pop-ups and weak fly balls. I'll worry about it when it's gone on longer but for right now it's just a bad weak. Kind of like Bellinger it's not a great start but I'm more encouraged by some of the under the hood stuff Tham I am discouraged by the topline results.
  14. Bertz
    Well, sounds like some guy you thinks name is (Cas)tillo is about to get his ass kicked
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    It's Easter Sunday, when we celebrate a dead body on the move Cubs have won 3 in a row Yesterday's win featured a barrage of hits Jameson Taillon's going for the Cubs today. His first start did not go well Jon Gray is going for the Rangers. The Gray Wolf as he's known is very dangerous Go Cubs
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  21. Bertz
    Cody Bellinger's rebound, or lack thereof, is probably slated to be the biggest story on the position player side in the first half this year. We probably won't be able to say anything definitive until closer to Memorial Day, but let's look at the early evidence for each side after a handful of games The Bad - The topline results aren't much different from last year so far running a 79 wRC+ - Bellinger's currently sporting Madrigal-ian exit velocities, averaging 86 and topping out at 102 The Good - The walk and K numbers are basically back where we'd hope they would be at 11.5% and 19.2% respectively. This is backed underneath the hood by lower chase rates and higher contact rates - There’s likely some early bad BABIP luck. His xwOBA paints the picture of something more like a 95 wRC+ - Bellinger is hitting everything in the air (22.2% GB rate!), but not popping the ball up at all The Interesting - Bellinger is currently 0-fer against lefties, but has a 103 wRC+ and a 14.5% K-rate against righties IMO there's been much more good than bad so far. I assume Cody was given some heavy assurances of everyday playing time, and that's fine, but I'd like to get one of the RHH outfielders up from Iowa to spell him against certain lefties sooner rather than later.
  22. Bertz
    It's a winning streak Two wins in a row for the Cubs They won yesterday thanks to strong pitching and fantastic defense. It's a recipe for a real This afternoon, Justin Steele goes for the Cubs. He's a Mississippi boy, a connoisseur of Country Music Opposing him is Martin Perez, an 11 year vet who finally had his first big year last year and got paid Against the lefty, David Ross is probably going to start two catchers, which will surely lead to a healthy reaction from the fanbase Go Cubs
  23. Bertz
    I think whether Assad stays up after Hughes is healthy is going to be a sign of how much of this was by design or more of a "these are the guys we have, might as well use them" deal. Fulmer is definitely the most surprising. It'll be really interesting to see how often he does what he did yesterday. It does have a lot of benefits though. You touched on guys being much less likely to pitch back-to-backs, which I'd guess is #1 by a pretty wide margin. Days in a row for a reliever is akin to times through the order for a starter. And then yeah, Smyly and Steele were '5 and Dive' types last year. Smyly's far enough into his career that we know it's permanent. There's hope for Steele, but still the safe thing is to assume that'll continue for him as well. Wesneski probably has a pitch mix to not be limited in that way, but only time will tell. But 5 IP from the starter, 2-3 from a complimentary longman, and then hand it off to your late inning guys for the save is likely a good formula. I wish we had a lefty who could do this too. Maybe Elias could be that guy? I'd give everyone a few more turns through the rotation, make sure we're past the early season injury danger zone, and then start using him this way down at Iowa.
  24. Bertz
    What an awesome pitching day, even with Iowa being pretty lame.
  25. Bertz
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