Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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A little more AAV than he was expected to get but only two years. Definitely need Jed to pull down a shortstop now
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If you want to believe the leaks from last night were not just PR cover from the team, Boras being nice to PTR is a pretty good sign
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Wowza
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I don't like spending money on RBs, but given that Poles is going to be living out the NFL version of Brewsters Millions this offseason he 100% needs to upgrade from Montgomery to Barkley or Jacobs. Especially with how bereft the WR market is.
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So if a double shortstop offseason is on the table, presumably a shortstop + Rodon offseason is also on the table? I feel like that's the most obvious path towards supercharging this team.
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The fun thing about the Murphy rumor is that Oakland has always been one of the few teams happy to take quantity over quality. Like 27 other teams would demand PCA, Wesneski, and change. Oakland is one of the few that might take a 4 or 5 for 1, they just wanna max out value. BTV says Alcantara, Caissie, Kilian, and Howard is a near perfect match, maybe throw in one of the hard throwing RP prospects for good measure?
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Maybe the LT line isn't the payroll cap? I've been reticent to get my hopes up too much, but if you did 3 big contracts and keep everything else to one year deals, it's not that hard to drop below the tax line next year. For example let's say you sign Swanson ($25M), Bogaerts ($30M), and Senga ($16M), and trade for Murphy or Jansen, and handle the rest of the offseason with one year FA deals. Next year we have $40M rolling off in Hendricks and Heyward, plus another $10M in Happ. Another $25M for Stroman is probably 50/50ish, but to be conservative let's say he doesn't opt out. Because the Cubs have minimal arb players, there's still ~$50M to spend next winter if they want to reset their penalties. That's enough for a star and a couple modest relief/bench pieces. I've assumed Jed's too risk averse for this sort of course, but it not *that* crazy?
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!!!!!!
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Things finally cooking?
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I should clarify boring and efficient, but still spending up to within a stones throw of the luxury tax. Something like: Christian Vazquez (2/$20M) Jameson Taillon (3/$50M) Corey Kluber (1/$15M) Josh Bell (3/$45M) Cody Bellinger (1/$15M) The two best relievers you can get for less than $10M In the above scenario you've added ~12 WAR, though it's important to note that because it's spread across so many positions you're not adding 12 wins to that initial 74 mark. It's more like 8-10, which is how I get to that barely over .500 estimate.
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So worse than last year? Yeah, I don't see 70-75 wins as being likely even if we did essentially nothing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdly-preliminary-2023-zips-projected-standings/ ZiPS put us at 74 before any team in the division has made any moves. I believe this takes the Brewers trade of Renfroe into account but that's it. The club will project just over .500 even with a boring and efficient offseason, the question is if Jed is gonna have the stones to stretch and get the team into the upper 80's.
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They'll do at least one splashy thing, even if it's not the absolute top of market mega-star we all want. If I were playing oddsmaker I'd peg it at something like 50% Swanson 30% Senga 10% Correa or Bogaerts 10% Other
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Turner's the guy I wanted most, I am curious to see how he ages. Most people anecdotally worry about speed guys aging but I think the data mostly says they age best. And while the non-speed parts of Turner's game are more good than great, the fact that he's the fastest everyday player in the league (and has been for several years) and isn't entirely one-dimensional would IMO suggest a very graceful age curve. Curious to see what Correa gets, and when. I sort of wonder if Correa's planning to be last man standing amongst the superstars, since I think the others have all indicated they'll sign soon.
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To maybe specify a bit better, Soler's been basically a 100 wRC+ DH since the start of the pandemic, and he's 31 now and missed significant time with a back injury so there's headwinds that might temper statcast-related optimism. What I'm saying is finding a positionless player who projects to be a league average bat is not a thing that costs real money. You might not get Carlos Santana level certainty, but to pull a couple of free agents you see on lists, Willie Calhoun and Yoshi Tsutsugo both project similarly via Steamer and aren't going to get 5-10 million. Frazier cost 2 million last year, any number of AAAA/Rule 5 types aren't going to cost any money, etc. I feel like this argument is just "why not just punt on 1B/DH unless we're getting someone truly impactful like Bell?" Which makes total sense (I've made that argument before for here as well as SP2), but I think all indications are that the team plans to get an adult in the room at 1B/DH rather than play waiver wire roulette. Soler as a FA would probably fit into the Mancini/Carpenter/Santana FA tier, and provides inroads into some very attractive SP options. To me I think the biggest question is whether the team needs the bat first guy to provide coverage at 1B (I'd think not with Mervis and Wisdom?) or if a pure DH is fine.
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Compared to Reyes, Soler is basically a standard deviation better in contact, hits the ball in the air more, and chases a lot less. Soler's actually an interesting case study because Statcast has been way higher on his production than it's netted out to in real life each of the last three years. Potential beneficiary of the shift ban? I don't think you're getting a Soler-like bat for near free. I think you're paying $5-10M for them. Like Carlos Santana got just under $7M from the tight fisted Pirates.
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The flip side to that is they've had a chance to win most games late, thanks to how good Fields is. If they can do that with marginal NFL talent all over the roster, it's not hard to see how much they can improve just by solidifying some of those areas. That's an easy upgrade. And there are lots of places they can and will do that. There is a lot of easily identifiable room for improvement. They have the QB and the rest isn't hard. And it's even less difficult with the assets (super high pick that they'll hopefully trade out of)/cap space they should have. Yeah even with a tough schedule all but two of the games Fields has started have been one score games late. If Fields doesn't regress next year, I'm not worried at all about being a contender. Any horsefeathers who plays franchise mode in Madden could get this team up to 8-10 wins next year given the resources provided, the challenge is getting this team up to the caliber of competing for a first round bye.
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Curious to see the exact dollar figures. As reported he's a couple hundred grand less than Scherzer on the all time AAV list, have to assume that when we know full details he'll be #1 by a smidge instead.
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I like this idea a lot. Despite his down year, I think I like Soler as a player more than most of the 2nd tier DH types on the market (e.g. Mancini). Packaging Soler with Pablo Lopez would fill both DH and one SP spot for only $18M, and drop the prospect cost down to something a little more palatable. BTV says something like Madrigal, Velazquez, and one of Kilian/Brown/Wicks would be fair If you want to save a little more money in exchange for more risk you could do Trevor Rogers instead of Lopez, both are valued similarly.
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Bears project on average to 3.9 wins, aside from Houston no other team projects south of 5. So the current expectation based on the projections is essentially 3 wins - Houston 4 wins - Bears 5 wins - Rams, Broncos, Cardinals, 6 wins - Panthers, Saints, Colts The Bears have no shot against the Eagles and Bills, so as long as they don't beat both the Lions and Vikings they should be locked into #2.
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I mean he's really good, but why? William Contreras is on the verge of being a top tier catcher. Yeah it's weird, like he's an upgrade for sure but you'd think you could upgrade more easily elsewhere. And the Braves also have very little in the farm, so is Contreras going back the other way? That could make sense, until you remember Shea Langeliers? Weird fit all around if it happens. Nevermind then!
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I mean he's really good, but why? William Contreras is on the verge of being a top tier catcher. Yeah it's weird, like he's an upgrade for sure but you'd think you could upgrade more easily elsewhere. And the Braves also have very little in the farm, so is Contreras going back the other way? That could make sense, until you remember Shea Langeliers? Weird fit all around if it happens.
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I know it's a bit weird to say after he had two picks and no TDs, but qualitatively that felt like Justin's second best passing game behind Pittsburgh last year. He looked really comfortable all day, which is especially notable with Mooney out.
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Formal offers tend to be a sign that things are reaching the endgame. Xander might be making a decision in the next day or so. I'm pretty anti-Bogaerts though. I think I hate him as much as the rest of the fanbase hate Swanson.