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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Because a couple of the Cubs' pitchers who can touch 100 MPH have gotten into the last few ST games, I've been thinking about Riley Thompson and Ryan Jensen. They're both presumed to open this year in the Iowa rotation, but how much more leash as SPs do we think they've got? Jensen reworked his delivery and it feels like there's some renewed hope for him making it as a SP. But Thompson is a really long shot at this point. I'd honestly send him straight to the pen, but certainly by Memorial Day if he hasn't changed our minds. Curious what the org's plan is for either.
  2. Bertz
    Phillies and Cardinals are pretty easy to see missing the playoffs. Phillies are very top-heavy, and particularly coming off that deep run last year I'd be nervous about each of their stars except Turner. Cardinals pitching is riddled with red flags, and post Bader trade the defense is more good than great. Dodgers also aren't invulnerable. I could see them being pretty disappointing in the first half, with them righting the ship eventually (they have too many options not to at some point) but too late to make the playoffs. Mets are old and Padres are thin, but I think even in the worst of scenarios they maintain WC spots.
  3. Bertz
    Iowa's going to have four guys in Correa, Burdick, Sanders, and Jensen who regularly hit 100 MPH. Riley Thompson when he shifts from starting to relief might end up there too. And Jeremiah Estrada, despite being more 96-98, has better stuff than any of them.
  4. Bertz
    Yeah, 6 guys in the everyday lineup have above average speed. And the bench should have some more available. I'm curious to see if it translates into steals or if it stops at guys taking the extra base here and there.
  5. Bertz
    It doesn't mean a ton, but it was a nice flex for the org's pitching depth. That Iowa bullpen is gonna be sort of outrageous.
  6. Bertz
    To my untrained eye Edwin Rios appears to be a dude.
  7. Bertz
    I don't love it, but it's not unreasonable. He's striking out at like a 50% clip in the early going here, and contact's something that if he had made major improvements over the offseason you'd likely see some indication in ST. I will say, if Morel's ticketed for Iowa and Seiya's likely out the first 2-3 weeks of the year, it leaves a lot more ambiguity around who rounds out the bench than I expected a month ago. Barnhart, Mckinstry, Madrigal, Rios, Deluzio? Nelly Velazquez maybe? Does Brennen Davis sneak in?
  8. Bertz
    I would love for Yelich to be a dirty rotten cheater, but it's just a combo of his kneecap exploding and his raw power being in the good-not-great sweetspot where he disproportionately benefited from the juiced ball.
  9. Bertz
    I'll add https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowelmi01.shtml I think with Bellinger the primary reason for optimism is that the decline is 100% attributable to the injury. Like it's a direct line. He hurt his shoulder, and since then there's been less thunder in the bat, evidenced a few ways but IMO most conclusively via his drop in top end exit velocity. He didn't start hitting a bunch of pop-ups or grounders, which would be a sign of Heyward-esque mechanical problems. His plate discipline didn't suddenly go to hell either (he's chasing more, but it looks like that's tied to him getting pitched around less). It's the injury. Full stop. Like I'm usually the annoying guy who can't go three sentences in April without saying "Small Sample Size." But like if Bellinger's got .900-something OPS two weeks into the season and a couple balls north of 110 MPH I'll already be fully bought in.
  10. Bertz
  11. Bertz
    Counterpoint: great time to get a glimpse at some of the organizations "rising stars" and lesser-knowns. Meh, its hard (at least for me) to parse through what is relevant and what is not relevant when it comes to Spring Training performances. Because of that I really don't care to watch spring training at all. I check back in this thread every 4-5 days to see whats going on It really sucks that most of the AZ stadiums don't have Statcast. Because it'd be a lot easier to find concrete things to hang our hat on. There are things like velo and exit velocity that mean something even in small samples and fake games. As it stands I know there was a study a few years ago that mentioned that ST walks and strikeouts had a little bit of predictive value. So I know I'll personally be looking at those for the kids and also Bellinger.
  12. Bertz
    Mule came in the top 30. Do you all think he will be in instructs all year? I wouldn't be surprised with a little bit of time at Myrtle late in the year after that last big wave of promotions. A la Koen Moreno last year. Really the type of guy who makes you miss having short season leagues.
  13. Bertz
    Let's assume Seiya has to miss opening day and Davis has a really big spring. Do you give him the primary RF job until Suzuki gets back? He's got nearly 250 PAs at AAA, plus this will be his second spring training largely in big league camp, plus his alt-site time in 2020, plus a smidge of AFL time. He's got a decent amount of experience against MLB-adjacent pitching, even if much of it came last year while he was physically impaired by the back issue.
  14. Bertz
    Yeah I think Transactions is the toughest call among the sports focused forums. I'd lean keeping it separate, but at the same time Cubs discussions is a ghost town during the offseason because the most natural thing to talk about are Transactions.
  15. Bertz
    The messaging on the Seiya stuff is a little all over the place. A couple things that were said that make me think he'll be back by opening day and this is largely a big to-do because they're being mindful of how bad he wanted to play in the WBC, and there's a few things that were somewhat ominous make me think the over/under on him getting back is May 1st.
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    Timing is as fortunate as could be but still have to imagine this keeps him out the first few weeks of April
  18. Bertz
    Let's horsefeathering go!
  19. Bertz
    Ummmmm if Anthony Kay wants to average 96 I might need to get excited about him
  20. Bertz
    I think mine is 1. PCA 2. Davis 3. Alcantara 4. Wesneski 5. Wicks 6. Canario 7. Caissie 8. Horton 9. Mervis 10. Hernandez 11. Brown 12. Made 13. Ballesteros 14. Triantos 15. Ferris 16. Kilian 17. Estrada 18. Palencia 19. Amaya 20. Hodge I probably ought to discount Canario more, but my POV is I'm going to wait until he's clearly diminished while back on the field before making the move. Kilian is the guy who I'd be most likely to bump up multiple spots very quickly. If he gets back to throwing strikes I could quickly argue him up to 9 and on the positive side of that tier-break.
  21. Bertz
    Merryweather looked great. The run was purely from bad defense
  22. Bertz
    My totally unbiased opinion (because I'm not a Ben Baldwin hater- he does some good stuff) This chart is total trash. He makes directionally "accurate" claims, but they are just claims that other analytical trade charts have done much better. It's not enough to just be directionally accurate when you're so far over in your end conclusions and values. My Fuller responses to it: Interesting, so this analysis is largely the football equivalent of $/WAR leading you to wanting two 1.5 WAR outfielders for the same price as one 3 WAR one? That's one of the interesting things about where the Bears are at. If they had either the money or the draft picks IMO it'd be very clear that they just need to plug as many holes as possible. But because they have both, I do think they need to do a few things that are maybe a bit SABR-unfriendly. Maybe that's paying market rate for a RB, maybe it's not completely maximizing their trade down to prioritize coming down with a Carter or Anderson, etc. But while he should mostly be responsible and think long term, Poles should take a couple swings at maximizing impact over efficiency.
  23. Bertz
    Very mathy, but TLDR is we WAY overrate the value of a top 5 pick for a non-QB. This would tell us to focus more on the Raiders or Panthers even if it means passing on Carter and Anderson. I think Raw's generally been on this page all offseason?
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    Taillon looked damn good that first inning. I thinknthat might have been the sweeper he got Kwan with?
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