Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I'd guess the sacks and don't forget two fumbles. I'm hoping/assuming it's not opponent adjusted, because those things are bad but against the Eagles some of that's just gonna happen.
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Given the competition, that was pretty clearly the defense's best game of the year right? Between that and Fields chalk up another tank win, though I obviously don't love all the injuries.
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I'm just imagining Poles running to midfield waving his arms frantically yelling "Stop the show!" like he's Uncle Leo
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Apparently Mooney threw out Casali and Roberto Perez as guys the Cubs are also looking at. Perez is the best easily by publicly available defensive stats. Casali is easily the best hitter. Barnhart is a switch hitter. All three guys have a lot of NL Central experience.
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I'm cool with Barnhart but you've gotta go harder at DH. No horsefeathering Trey Mancini. Bring me Conforto or Brantley. But like this is a real lineup: 2B - Hoerner (110 projected wRC+) DH - Conforto (117) LF - Happ (114) RF - Suzuki (128) CF - Bellinger (97) SS - Swanson (104) 1B - Mervis (122) 3B - Morel (105) C - Gomes (92)/Barnhart(77) I'd take the under on Gomes' offensive projection while being the primary C, and the error bars are obviously quite wide around all three lefties. But that team projects quite well on both sides of the ball.
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He was first with Swanson yesterday so I guess give it some credence.
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Don't forget extending Hoerner. My hope is that there isn't much plan to leave a few mil for the deadline, the Padres showed you can do a lot and still stay under, and if they're competitive and wanting to add maybe that's the motivation to push over the line. The best version of this is probably Madrigal for a reliever, Smyly, a bat for ~10M, and whichever catcher you end up with(none of the options should be > 5M). Yeah good call, there's essentially no way to fit a Hoerner extension in at this point if we're looking to stay under the LT. That's a good sign, Jed laid it on pretty thick that he'd like to accomplish that. I guess something like this would technically work but doesn't feel very realistic? Smyly ~$7M Hoerner ~$8M Catcher ~$2M DH ~$8M RP ~$2M
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Smyly is aiming lower than I would have liked after Taillon was the top guy. That said Smyly is obviously solid, he took well to the team's systems and coaching, and I'd imagine it's a fairly efficient signing. If signing Smyly instead of someone a little better is what lets Jed get Conforto at DH instead of e.g. Matt Carpenter that's a win. Still really curious about the LT. Smyly would be another ambiguous sign about how they're approaching it. After Swanson the team has just under $30M to the tax. Smyly likely eats up $8-10M. On the one hand, that's technically enough for a bat at <$10M, a very cheap catcher, a cheap reliever, and leaving s few mill for the deadline. But on the other Smyly seems like a weird splurge if you're going to be running so tight everywhere else?
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Really strong ZiPS projections for Swanson. 4+ WAR the next two years, 3+ the two after that, and even in year 6 he'd still prorate out to just over 2 WAR on a per 600 PA basis.
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I've been wondering about this too. Lots of guys I've looked at this winter play left side of the infield and have noodle arm grades. Justin Turner was another I noticed recently. I kind of wonder if outfielders wreck the grade curve a bit here? They get a lot more running start 100% effort throws. Like Javy by this measure is also only 70th-80th percentile, and we know he's got a mega elite arm. Swanson's good enough at SS right now that he probably stays there for most of his deal. Probably the last year or two though we should assume he'll be at 2B. Which I wonder if that impacts any Hoerner extension talk? Probably not?
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He sounds very confident in the Conforto thing
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Didn't make the connection til I saw it on Reddit but the two biggest contracts in Cubs' history have now been given to guys traded for Shelby Miller.
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Cubs need a big bat, but as a pure DH and a righty I don’t think Martinez was a great fit for the Cubs.
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Just from 20-21 he was 34th in WAR, still ahead of Trout and Devers, also ahead of Nolan Arenado, Sean Murphy, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, Trevor Story, etc. yeah he had anomalously high value from baserunning & fielding efficiency, pretty reminiscent of a former Braves standout our offense is still very likely quite worse than an already pitiful offense from last year despite now spending pretty significant money from an artificially tight budget 3 years in a row? Quite the anomaly!
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I think especially if you're cruising past the luxury tax it's a tough pill to swallow to sign Eovaldi, but I don't have a super high opinion of him though. The upside is there compared to your Smylys and Klubers, but I just don't think that HR rate is gonna stay low enough to be more than an averageish SP. For me, the biggest questions are 1) is the LT a hard limit now that you've banked Swanson? 2) can you trade for a C that's better than the remaining FA(Jansen, maybe Murphy, etc)? and 3) what type of arm can you get for Madrigal? 4) what AAV is gonna be needed to extend Hoerner now? You basically have to trade for a catcher if you want to fill every spot with an unequivocally good player. My guess at a good but more likely offseason would probably be to trade for the other SP and handle everything else via FA, and catcher's just going to be someone uninspiring who gets high marks for the more nebulous parts of the job. But yeah the LT is the big question now. I am cautiously optimistic, the way things have played out they can a still do one more multi-year deal and still start next offseason at approximately the same payroll they started this one at (and that's assuming Stroman opts in).
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Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers. because of the career year Just from 20-21 he was 34th in WAR, still ahead of Trout and Devers, also ahead of Nolan Arenado, Sean Murphy, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Nimmo, Trevor Story, etc.
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So Swanson got within a rounding error of exactly what the ZiPS projections thought he should have gotten.
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Dansby Swanson is 13th in position player WAR the last three years ahead of players such as Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr, and Rafael Devers.
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My ideal path forward from here is something like: - Nate Eovaldi (2/40) - Trade for Danny Jansen - Sign Taylor Rogers (1/10) - Sign Michael Brantley (1/15) - Trade Madrigal for the best young reliever he can net you You blow past the luxury tax, but so much comes off after this year that you can be very active in FA again next winter and still duck back under the tax then. And that's a really good and deep team. Light on stars but good essentially up and down the entire roster.
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The former, but not by much.
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That'd be my hope. I'm sure Jed doesn't want to give up the Contreras pick but Eovaldi is really good and can probably be had on a two year deal.
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Very good news. Curious where the money nets out, and whether Jed and ownership are willing to cross the luxury tax. But the realistic paths to an actual good team next year all flowed through Swanson at this point, so the biggest domino is down.
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I love this idea. Carrasco has been a guy I've really liked around the league for a while. I'm not sure there's another guy out there I like more as the other SP. I don't care for McCann but at this point short of Jansen we're not getting a catcher I like so whatever. Carrasco, McCann, money to cover McCann's 2024 salary, and a 45 grade prospect in exchange for some org filler? This would only work though if Jed misses on Swanson or if Jed's willing to jump the LT. $24M on top of whatever Swanson ends up making would probably take a second bat off the table if we're adhering to the luxury tax.
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5 years at first blush is silly, but the total $75M is very reasonable. I think this is clearly a smaller scale version of the Turner/Bogaerts/Correa thing.