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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I don't think we got any meaningful data on Taillon’s sweeper, right? I believe he only pitched one game in front of Statcast and it was in an early game where he only threw it a few times. If that pitch shows out on Sunday I will be very quick to jump on board with #4 My one I feel most emphatically about is that we're fixing to have a bullpen of death like the Rays. The Cubs have in the upper levels of the org four guys with pretty monstrous stuff in Julian Merryweather, Jeremiah Estrada, Ryan Jensen, and Daniel Palencia. They have two other triple digit arms in Sanders and Correa. There's a small army of guys who sit mid 90's with a nasty breaking ball. Assuming Thompson's velo issues are temporary, they have three guys on the OD roster who can serve as high leverage long relievers. Fulmer and Boxberger aren't especially exciting but create a solid floor in the near term here. There's no closer-caliber lefty on the way (Luke Little is the closest to MLB and he's not close), but that's really the closest thing there is to a blemish.
  2. Bertz
    For as great as Burnes is and as bad as the Cubs were, they beat him 3x last year. Here's to #4
  3. Bertz
    My guess is that it's more about the roster spot than Torrens himself. I think with how light hitting Gomes and Barnhart are, combined with the general position versatility on the roster, Ross likes having a 3rd catcher where he's pretty free to pinch hit. I think this is also a signal that Amaya could not be pressed into duty even in case of an injury right now. For Torrens specifically, he projects surprisingly well given his career to date. He also has more oomph than a generic backup catcher. Good exit velos and much more speed. Between his age (27 isn't that old for a catcher to break out) and athletic ability it's not that hard to imagine another gear in there, even if I wouldn't count on it.
  4. Bertz
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    This is great. What's funny to me though is that while in the micro you're 1000% right, on a more macro level he's essentially the complete opposite of the rest of the roster. In terms of end of the day production, he's both very good and also quite safe and boring. He's going to put up a low 3's ERA and be worth between 3 and 4 WAR. There's not much (seeming) additional upside there, but at the same time the only real downside is the inescapable risks inherent to any pitcher. Everyone else on the roster is either A) not talented enough to be an impact guy or B) the error bars on them are enormous. I wouldn't want a roster full of Stromans, but 2-3 more would be pretty nice right now.
  7. Bertz
  8. Bertz
    81 - 85. I think it's very easy to take the over on the projected production from the pitching staff. The pitch modeling section at Pitchingbot/Fangraphs for instance thinks all five of our starters legit earned sub-4 ERAs last year. And the team's earned a legit benefit of the doubt on the reliever front. That said they project to be the #21 pitching staff, so you can comfortably hit the over and still not be especially good. I also think the depth on the position player side is not given enough value by the projection systems. It doesnt just raise the floor but the ceiling. Take 1B for instance. One of Hosmer/Smyly/Mervis/Rios is likely to hit their 70th+ percentile projections and be a legit starting caliber 1B. It takes some time to evaluate which of those guys that's happening to, but even still it does ultimately lead to additional wins IMO. The problem is that the positives above are worth, what, maybe 5 wins tops? If the projections are saying something like 78-80, it's really hard to argue north of 83ish without getting real homer-y. Jed really needed to make a big trade this winter. If we had e.g. Trevor Rogers instead of Drew Smyly, we'd also have been able to afford upgrading Barnhart or Hosmer to Christian Vazquez or a Brandon Belt. That sort of twofer upgrade would have more affirmatively gotten us into being favorites for one of the WC spots IMO.
  9. Bertz
    I'm in
  10. Bertz
    Ah, good call!
  11. Bertz
    The Cubs are mostly tapped out for this year, and considering we're getting the #1 guy in the class we should presume next year's funds are completely spoken for as well. So do we think there's any opportunity to get Rodriguez? Presumably some team has some leftover funds and will swoop in and grab him?
  12. Bertz
    Strumpf going to Tenn for the 3rd year in a row tells you exactly what the org thinks of him, and personally I'm very much in agreement.
  13. Bertz
  14. Bertz
    Looking at a few recent comps Adam Frazier went 2.8 -> 4.3 -> 8 Amed Rosario went 2.4 -> 4.9 -> 7.8 So a little higher but not a ton. Hoerner's skillset is not one that racks up a lot of dollars in arb unless it's paired with some hardware.
  15. Bertz
    Rule of thumb is guys get a 50% increase each year in arb. So Nico would likely go 4 and 6 his last two arb years. That said if he won the gold glove or started stealing a ton of bases with the new rules he'd probably juice those numbers quite a bit.
  16. Bertz
    Like this a lot. My biggest issue is like TT said this puts him and Seiya into FA the same offseason. A fourth year would have been ideal but I'm much happier with three than I would have been with 5.
  17. Bertz
    I believe the Wick thing becoming official + everything done right before the game means the entire roster is set except for whether the last pen spot goes to Leiter or Borucki? And Leiter seems pretty likely.
  18. Bertz
    Speaking of Spring Training performances that raise an eyebrow: Jameson Taillon ended his spring with 23 strikeouts and 0 walks (1 HBP tho). I reeeeally wish he'd pitched more in front of Statcast so we could know how excited to be about this new sweeper.
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    Over the last three years collectively he's got a 93 wRC+, and he projects to a 92 this year. The average MLB catcher is at 89 the last few years. So not a monster but solidly above average for the very low bar at the position. I think it's primarily sign that Amaya is not yet physically fit for duty if one of the top two guys hit the IL tomorrow, and they think Torrens is materially better than spinning the waiver roulette wheel to find a guy.
  21. Bertz
    I didn't see this separately but in Brett's writeup on the roster shakeout stuff he linked to a Sun-Times article that indicated Wick hitting waivers is likely So from a 40 man standpoint, it's a pretty clean Mckinstry+Wick out Torrens+Leiter/Borucki in situation? Rucker down when Hughes is back, Torrens down when Seiya is back? I'm still wondering who the horsefeathers the backup CF is. Is Happ or Suzuki now a regular option out there after very much not being considered one last year? Is Mastro a much better defensive OF than I realized and an option there? Is Cody Bellinger planning to only miss an inning if he hits the IL?
  22. Bertz
    The bullpen is monstrous. Like vintage Rays/Brewers good I was going to say Steele sucks as a starter and has to go to the pen (where he dominates) but Steele being bad has been mentioned enough by now that it's maybe not as bold as I thought an hour ago Swanson has a miserable April and we get a ton of Heyward 2.0 discourse, but once the wind starts blowing out he goes HAM and ultimately ends up having his best offensive season No hitter on the roster besides Swanson tops 3.5 WAR, but we still end the season with a top 10 position player group because of the depth guys and the youths Jed does something extremely un-Jed and adds Bryan Reynolds at the trade deadline
  23. Bertz
    A couple surprises in here. Namely the team carrying a 3rd catcher, though I imagine that is only until Seiya gets back?
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    This is great. You mentioned it here and I most wonder about the velocity. His 94.3 last year was, like you said, pretty much average for a reliever. I'd love to see him get back where he was in 2021 where he was just a smidge under 96. I'm also curious to see where his slider lives at velo wise. Now that he's adding some extra sweep will it trend down to more mid-80's, or does he keep it bumping 90.
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